The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, April 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, PHOENIX, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, LA CLIPPERS, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, SACRAMENTO, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, CHICAGO ML, WASHINGTON ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-DAL, CLE-LAC, CHI-ORL, NOP-PHX, PHI-SAS, NYK-MIL, SAC-BKN, UTA-GSW, MIN-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-TOR, PHI-SAS, UTA-GSW

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-LAC, PLAY OVER in CHI-ORL, PLAY OVER in OKC-CHA, PLAY OVER in POR-BOS, PLAY UNDER in SAC-BKN, PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 65-29 SU and 57-34-3 ATS (62.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
4/7: LA CLIPPERS vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-3.5 vs CLE)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 25-34 SU but 33-25-1 ATS (56.9%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
4/7: CLEVELAND at La Clippers
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3.5 at LAC)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 49-27 SU and 41-34-1 ATS (54.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
4/7: LA CLIPPERS vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-3.5 vs CLE)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 32-33 SU and 38-27 ATS (58.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game in the last two seasons.
4/7: BROOKLYN vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+8 vs SAC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 57-52 SU and 58-49-2 ATS (54.2%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
4/7: BROOKLYN vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+8 vs SAC)

4/7: LA LAKERS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-2 vs MIN)

* Over the total was 76-57 (57.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
4/7: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)

* Over the total was 82-53 (60.7%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
4/7: Over the total in BROOKLYN-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217.5)

* Over the total was 67-55 (54.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
4/7: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)

Applying Top 2023-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 31-15 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
4/7 vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-3.5 vs CLE)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 25-21 SU but 17-29 ATS (37%).
4/7 vs. New York
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-4.5 vs NYK)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 33-13 SU and 32-14 ATS (69.6%).
4/7 vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-7.5 vs CHI)

PHOENIX is 10-5-1 Over the total (66.7%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
4/7 vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222)

WASHINGTON is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) as a road underdog this season but 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) as a home underdog
4/7 at Toronto
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+4 at TOR)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN is 25-15 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
4/7: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 29-17 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
4/7: UNDER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 219)

* CLEVELAND is 13-2 Under the total in the A2A b2b game scenario over the last three seasons
4/7: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 219)

* GOLDEN STATE is 24-8 Under the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
4/7: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-UTAH
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 226.5)

* HOUSTON is 32-11 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
4/7: OVER the total in DALLAS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)

* INDIANA is 58-38 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
4/7: Over the total in INDIANA-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 92-58 SU and 89-58-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+4 at TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 165-31 SU but just 85-108-3 ATS (44%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-16 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-66 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 154-127 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 205-144 (58.7%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-BOS (o/u at 216), PLAY OVER in UTA-GSW (o/u at 227)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 229-125 SU but just 149-194-11 ATS (43.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-16 vs POR)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 243-190 SU but 185-237-11 ATS (43.8%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+9 vs. OKC), FADE TORONTO (-4 vs. WSH)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 58-34 (63%) in their last 92 tries.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in OKC-CHA (o/u at 219), PLAY UNDER in PHI-SAS (o/u at 227)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 264-209 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WSH-TOR (o/u at 231)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 226-239 SU and 207-253-5 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+9 vs OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 86-15 SU but 43-56-3 ATS (43.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-16 vs POR)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-69 SU and 68-57-3 ATS (54.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+6 at NOP), PLAY UTAH (+11.5 at GSW)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 187-234 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-108 SU & 57-74-3 ATS (43.5%).
System Matches: FADE UTAH (+11.5 at GSW)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8 (+4.0), 2. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+2.6), 3. CHARLOTTE +9 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -4 (+1.6), 2. BOSTON -16 (+1.3), 3. INDIANA -1.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8 (+6.4), 2. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+5.0), 3. CHARLOTTE +9 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -16 (+2.7), 2. TORONTO -4 (+1.3), 3. PHOENIX -6 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-DAL OVER 225.5 (+1.8), 2. CHI-ORL OVER 209.5 (+1.5), 3. NOP-PHX OVER 222 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-SAS UNDER 227 (-4.3), 2. WSH-TOR UNDER 231 (-2.4), 3. OKC-CHA UNDER 219 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8 (+2.8), 2. CHICAGO +7.5 (+2.2), 3. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -4 (+2.9), 2. INDIANA -1.5 (+2.2), 3. LA LAKERS -2 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-LAC OVER 218 (+2.6), 2. HOU-DAL OVER 225.5 (+2.4), 3. SAC-BKN OVER 215.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-GSW UNDER 226.5 (-4.7), 2. PHI-SAS UNDER 227 (-4.3), 3. OKC-CHA UNDER 219 (-1.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(567) CHICAGO at (568) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won the last four ATS versus Chicago
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(563) CLEVELAND at (564) LA CLIPPERS
* Home teams have won the last four ATS in the CLE-LAC series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(561) HOUSTON at (562) DALLAS
* Favorites have won the last three ATS in the HOU-DAL series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(565) MIAMI at (566) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the MIA-IND series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(585) MINNESOTA at (586) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS have won the last three ATS versus Minnesota
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(571) NEW ORLEANS at (572) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the NOP-PHO series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(579) NEW YORK at (580) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is on a 7-2-1 ATS run versus New York
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(569) OKLAHOMA CITY at (570) CHARLOTTE
* The last six games of the OKC-CHA series in Charlotte went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(577) PHILADELPHIA at (578) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the PHI-SAN series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(575) PORTLAND at (576) BOSTON
* BOSTON is on a 3-0 ATS streak versus Portland
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(581) SACRAMENTO at (582) BROOKLYN
* Home teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the SAC-BRK series
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(583) UTAH at (584) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is on a 9-1-1 ATS run versus Utah
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(573) WASHINGTON at (574) TORONTO
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the WAS-TOR series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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