HomeNBAVSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report - February 23

    VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – February 23

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share today's most important NBA betting trends for Friday, February 23.

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    The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

    Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top NBA Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, MINNESOTA, LA LAKERS

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS, DENVER, CHARLOTTE

    At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

    The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS, MINNESOTA, DENVER

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA, CHARLOTTE

    The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
    System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
    System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, LA LAKERS ML

    These last four systems involve totals.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-PHI, WSH-OKC, LAC-MEM, MIA-NOP, DEN-POR, SAS-LAL

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
    System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-OKC, SAS-LAL

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-NOP, DEN-POR

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in WSH-OKC, PLAY UNDER instead in TOR-ATL

    Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

    The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing NBA betting trend scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

    * Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 38-14 SU and 33-16-3 ATS (67.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
    2/23: MEMPHIS vs. La Clippers
    System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+9 vs LAC)

    * Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 58-25 SU and 49-31-3 ATS (61.3%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
    2/23: GOLDEN STATE vs. Charlotte
    System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-13 vs CHA)

    2/23: MEMPHIS vs. La Clippers
    System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+9 vs LAC)

    * Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 26-24 SU and 30-20 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.

    2/23: NEW ORLEANS vs. Miami
    System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs MIA)

    2/23: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Washington
    System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs WSH)

    * Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 30-11 SU and 28-13 ATS (68.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
    2/23: MEMPHIS vs. La Clippers
    System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+9 vs LAC)

    * Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 21-6 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
    2/23: PORTLAND vs. Denver
    System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+9.5 vs DEN)

    * Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 15-12 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
    2/23: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Washington
    System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs WSH)

    * Over the total was 72-48 (60%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
    2/23: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-MIAMI
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219.5)

    2/23: OVER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-WASHINGTON
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 241)

    * Over the total was 29-17 (63%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
    2/23: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-CHARLOTTE
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)

    2/23: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-WASHINGTON
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 241)

    * Over the total was 35-24 (59.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
    2/23: Over the total in ATLANTA-TORONTO
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246)

    2/23: Over the total in MEMPHIS-LA CLIPPERS
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221.5)

    2/23: Over the total in MINNESOTA-MILWAUKEE
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

    2/23: Over the total in PORTLAND-DENVER
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)

    * Over the total is 9-3 (75%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing in a H2A b2b scenario.
    2/23: Over the total in ATLANTA-TORONTO
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246)

    2/23: Over the total in PORTLAND-DENVER
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)

    * Under the total is 15-9 (62.5%) over last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
    2/23: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-CLEVELAND
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228.5)

    Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for Rest of Season

    There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

    MILWAUKEE is 7-0 Under the total (100%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
    There has been a lot of concern about the Bucks’ defense this season, and while that might be valid, it isn’t the reason these games against the West have been going Under. Milwaukee has scored just 113.6 PPG in these contests, against 123.4 in all of the other games. That is quite a situational drop-off, and one to remember for these remaining road games vs. West foes:
    2/23 at Minnesota
    System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-MIN (o/u at 225)

    PHOENIX is 8-0 Over the total (100%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
    I realize this is a somewhat wordy and confusing trend, but when you consider the following stats, you will look more favorably on it. The Suns have played a non-divisional conference team consecutively eight times this season, scoring 125.5 PPG while yielding 119.5. That is a combined effort of 245 PPG. The average posted total on these games has been a mere 227.5, meaning these games are going Over by a whopping 17.5 PPG! They aren’t even close.
    2/23 at Houston
    System Match: PLAY OVER in PHX-HOU (o/u at 233.5)

    WASHINGTON is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) as a road underdog this season but 8-18 ATS (30.8%) as a home underdog.
    This is a strange performance dichotomy, and it shows that Washington plays better on the road than it does at home. These trends will apply in a lot of games the rest of the way
    2/23 at Oklahoma City
    System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+16 at OKC)

    The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    * GOLDEN STATE is 42-16 SU & 34-21 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
    2/23: GOLDEN STATE vs. Charlotte
    System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-13 vs CHA)

    * MIAMI is 23-20 SU and 26-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
    2/23: MIAMI at New Orleans
    System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3.5 at NOP)

    * SAN ANTONIO was 4-22 SU and 9-17 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
    2/23: Fade SAN ANTONIO at La Lakers
    System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+10 at LAL)

    NBA Team Strength Systems

    The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
    In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-33 SU & 97-54 ATS (64.2%) run.
    System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs MIL)

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
    Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 139-29 SU but just 67-99-2 ATS (40.4%) over the last two seasons.
    System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs WSH), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-13 vs CHA)

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
    Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 75-58 (56.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 142-111 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-128 (57.8%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in WSH-OKC (o/u at 241.5), PLAY OVER in CHA-GSW (o/u at 229.5), PLAY OVER in SAS-LAL (o/u at 239.5)

    NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

    These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

    QUALITY OF LOSSES/WINS CAN MATTER

    Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
    NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 235-180 SU but 180-224-11 ATS (44.6%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-58 ATS.
    System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs. MIL), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs. WSH)

    UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

    NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 204-222 SU and 191-231-4 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE MEMPHIS (+9 vs LAC)

    Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 212-213 SU and 189-224-10 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+13 at GSW)

    NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 111-138 SU and 110-133-6 ATS (45.3%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+13 at GSW)

    NBA Streak Systems

    The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

    NBA Streak Betting System #5:
    There has been a 4.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (148-167 ATS, 47%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (202-188 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
    System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+16 at OKC), CONSIDER PLAYING PORTLAND (+9.5 vs DEN)

    NBA Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 56-53 SU and 63-44-3 ATS (58.9%) surge.
    System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+16 at OKC)

    NBA Streak Betting System #8:
    Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 168-208 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 22-96 SU and 49-66-3 ATS (42.6%).
    System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+16 at OKC)

    Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +9 (+2.7), 2. HOUSTON +4 (+1.7), 3. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+1.5)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -4.5 (+3.1), 2. NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (+2.3), 3. LA LAKERS -10 (+1.2)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +16 (+3.8), 2. HOUSTON +4 (+2.4), 3. TORONTO +7 (+1.6)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -9.5 (+0.6), 2. GOLDEN STATE -13 (+0.4), 3. LA LAKERS -10 (+0.3)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-MEM OVER 221.5 (+2.3), 2. SAS-LAL OVER 239.5 (+2.1), 3. MIL-MIN OVER 225 (+1.7)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-POR UNDER 219 (-1.7), 2. TOR-ATL UNDER 246 (-1.4), 3. CLE-PHI UNDER 228.5 (-1.0)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1(tie). PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+2.8) and PORTLAND +9.5 (+2.8), 3. MILWAUKEE +4.5 (+2.5)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (+4.4), 2. ATLANTA -7 (+2.8), 3. GOLDEN STATE -13 (+1.6)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-MEM OVER 221.5 (+7.1), 2. SAS-LAL OVER 239.5 (+2.5), 3. MIL-MIN OVER 225 (+1.9)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-POR UNDER 219 (-1.6), 2. TOR-ATL UNDER 246 (-0.6), 3. MIA-NOP UNDER 219.5 (-0.1)

    Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

    (525) TORONTO at (526) ATLANTA
    * TORONTO is on a 7-3 ATS surge versus Atlanta
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

    (527) CLEVELAND at (528) PHILADELPHIA
    * The last four games of the CLE-PHI series went Over the total
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (529) WASHINGTON at (530) OKLAHOMA CITY
    * Underdogs are on a 10-2 ATS run in the WAS-OKC series
    System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

    (531) PHOENIX at (532) HOUSTON
    * Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the PHO-HOU set
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (533) LA CLIPPERS at (534) MEMPHIS
    * Over the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the LAC-MEM set
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (535) MILWAUKEE at (536) MINNESOTA
    * Favorites are 15-4 ATS in the MIL-MIN series since 2014
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

    (537) DENVER at (538) PORTLAND
    * PORTLAND is 6-3 ATS in the last nine hosting Denver
    System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

    (539) CHARLOTTE at (540) GOLDEN STATE
    * Under the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the CHA-GSW series
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

    (541) MIAMI at (542) NEW ORLEANS
    * MIAMI is 7-1 ATS in the last eight at New Orleans
    System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

    (543) SAN ANTONIO at (544) LA LAKERS
    * Home teams have won the last three ATS in the SAN-LAL series
    System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

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