The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, DALLAS, BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX, DALLAS, GOLDEN STATE, DENVER, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, DALLAS, DENVER, BOSTON

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-CLE, DAL-CHI, GSW-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DAL-CHI, TOR-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-DET, PLAY OVER in BOS-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 56-44 SU and 53-46-1 ATS (53.5%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
3/11: CLEVELAND vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+6 vs PHX)

* Under the total was 91-59-1 (60.7%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.

3/11: Under the total in CLEVELAND-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220.5)

3/11: Under the total in PORTLAND-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 19-7 Over the total (73.1%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/11 vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY OVER in DAL-CHI (o/u at 233)

DALLAS boasts an impressive 13-2 SU and ATS (86.7%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
3/11 at Chicago
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-4 at CHI)

TORONTO has gone Over the total in its last 14 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
3/11 at Denver
System Match: PLAY OVER in TOR-DEN (o/u at 231)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING SITUATION TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 86-54 SU and 84-53-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+4 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 144-29 SU but just 71-100-2 ATS (41.5%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (-14.5 vs TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-114 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 180-135 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in TOR-DEN (o/u at 231)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 186-115 SU but 134-163-4 ATS (45.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4 at CHI), FADE DENVER (-14.5 vs TOR)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 129-79 SU but 90-114-4 ATS (44.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 76-101 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-4 vs CHA)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 236-186 SU but 181-230-11 ATS (44%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 vs GSW)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 206-228 SU and 194-236-4 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 vs. GSW), FADE DENVER (-14.5 vs. TOR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+3.3), 2. CHICAGO +4 (+2.2), 3. PORTLAND +9.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -14.5 (+3.8), 2. PHOENIX -6 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +4 (+3.6), 2. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+2.7), 3. TORONTO +14.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9.5 (+0.4), 2. PHOENIX -6 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-SAS OVER 227 (+2.0), 2. CHA-DET OVER 217 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-POR UNDER 217 (-3.6), 2. PHX-CLE UNDER 220.5 (-1.2), 3. DAL-CHI UNDER 233 (-0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+3.1), 2. CHICAGO +4 (+2.5), 3. PORTLAND +9.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -14.5 (+4.2), 2. PHOENIX -6 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-SAS OVER 227 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-POR UNDER 217 (-2.9), 2. TOR-DEN UNDER 231.5 (-1.9), 3. PHX-CLE UNDER 220.5 (-1.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(543) BOSTON at (544) PORTLAND
* BOSTON is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 visits to Portland
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(533) CHARLOTTE at (534) DETROIT
* The last five games of the CHA-DET series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(537) DALLAS at (538) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO has won the last four ATS hosting Dallas
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(539) GOLDEN STATE at (540) SAN ANTONIO
* Under the total is 6-3 in the last nine of the GSW-SAN series in San Antonio
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(535) PHOENIX at (536) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are on a 4-1 ATS run in the PHO-CLE series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(541) TORONTO at (542) DENVER
* Over the total is 12-4 in the last 16 of the TOR-DEN h2h series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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