The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 17, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DENVER, BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, DENVER, BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, SAN ANTONIO, LA CLIPPERS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, BOSTON ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in PHX-MIL, PLAY UNDER in MIA-DET, PLAY UNDER in BKN-SAS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 123-86 SU but 90-117-1 ATS (43.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.

3/17: Fade DALLAS vs. Denver
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 vs DEN)

3/17: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-2.5 vs PHX)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 53-39 SU but 38-54 ATS (41.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/17: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-2.5 vs PHX)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 70-42 SU but 48-63-1 ATS (43.2%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/17: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-2.5 vs PHX)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 63-27 SU and 54-33-3 ATS (62.1%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
3/17: SAN ANTONIO vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-2 vs BKN)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 31-13 SU and 30-14 ATS (68.2%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/17: SAN ANTONIO vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (-2 vs BKN)

* Over the total was 22-12 (64.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
3/17: Over the total in WASHINGTON-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228.5)

* Over the total was 26-22 (54.2%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/17: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 16-23 SU and 11-28 ATS (28.2%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/17 at LA Clippers
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+9.5 at LAC)

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 29-12 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/17 vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-9.5 vs ATL)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 28-10 SU and 28-10 ATS (73.7%).
3/17 vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-12.5 vs TOR)

WASHINGTON is 20-13 ATS (60.6%) as a road underdog this season but 9-20 ATS (31%) as a home underdog
3/17 vs Boston
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+11 vs BOS)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* DALLAS is 13-12 SU and 5-18 ATS at HOME in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
3/17: Fade DALLAS vs Denver
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 vs DEN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 87-56 SU and 85-55-3 ATS (60.7%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (+2 at SAS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 145-116 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 182-136 (57.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in TOR-ORL (o/u at 216.5), PLAY OVER in BOS-WSH (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 207-232 SU and 194-241-4 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-11 at WSH), FADE ATLANTA (+9.5 at LAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 219-220 SU and 196-231-10 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-11 at WSH), FADE ATLANTA (+9.5 at LAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 116-144 SU and 115-139-6 ATS (45.3%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-11 at WSH), FADE ATLANTA (+9.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 48-14 SU and 38-22-2 ATS (63.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-10.5 at WSH)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+2.8), 2. PHOENIX +4 (+2.3), 3. ATLANTA +9.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -5.5 (+1.1), 2. ORLANDO -12 (+0.9), 3. DENVER -4 (+0.7)

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +4 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -11.5 (+3.5), 2. MIAMI -5.5 (+1.6), 3. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-DAL OVER 229.5 (+1.3), 2. PHO-MIL OVER 229.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-WAS UNDER 228.5 (-2.3), 2. MIA-DET UNDER 214.5 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+2.8), 2. PHOENIX +4 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -5.5 (+5.3), 2. BOSTON -11.5 (+2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-ORL OVER 216.5 (+3.4), 2. BRK-SAN OVER 2.18 (+3.2), 3. MIA-DET OVER 214.5 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-WAS UNDER 228.5 (-1), 2. DEN-DAL UNDER 226.5 (-0.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(555) ATLANTA at (556) LA CLIPPERS
* Road teams are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the ATL-LAC series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(551) BOSTON at (552) WASHINGTON
* The last four games of the BOS-WAS series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(553) BROOKLYN at (554) SAN ANTONIO
* BROOKLYN is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(547) DENVER at (548) DALLAS
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the DEN-DAL series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(545) MIAMI at (546) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 9-5-1 ATS hosting Miami since 2015
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(543) PHOENIX at (544) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE has won the last five ATS hosting Phoenix
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(549) TORONTO at (550) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won the last three ATS hosting Toronto
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

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