Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NFL betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON, CHICAGO, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MIAMI ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, SACRAMENTO ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-PHI, NYK-GSW, ATL-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIA-PHI, PLAY OVER in POR-CHI, PLAY UNDER in NYK-GSW
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 30-26 SU and 30-26 ATS (53.6%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/18: BOSTON vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-15 vs DET)
* Under the total was 93-62-1 (60%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/18: Under the total in UTAH-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223.5)
* Over the total was 25-16 (61%) last season when the home team was on a A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/18: Over the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NFL betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
CHICAGO is 20-8 Over the total (71.4%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/18 vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213.5)
INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 10-3 SU and ATS (76.9%).
3/18 vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-7 vs CLE)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 20-36 SU and 17-38 ATS in the 3rdin4Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/18: Fade ATLANTA at La Lakers
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+8 at LAL)
* ATLANTA was 31-14 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
3/18: Over the total in LA LAKERS-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 71-22 SU and 57-33 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
3/18: GOLDEN STATE vs. New York
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs NYK)
* INDIANA is 23-15 SU and 25-11-1 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
3/18: INDIANA vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-7 vs CLE)
* INDIANA is 57-36 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
3/18: Over the total in INDIANA-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* MIAMI is 26-21 SU and 30-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/18: MIAMI at Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+2.5 at PHI)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 145-116 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 183-137 (57.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-BOS (o/u at 223), PLAY OVER in MEM-SAC (o/u at 221.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 209-232 SU and 196-241-4 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+8 at LAL)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 221-220 SU and 198-231-10 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15 vs DET)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 108-79 SU and 107-77-3 ATS (58.2%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (+5.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 82-15 SU but 40-55-3 ATS (42.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-15 vs DET)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +8.5 (+2.1), 2. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.0), 3. NEW YORK +5.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -8 (+3.5), 2. SACRAMENTO -10.5 (+3.4), 3. INDIANA -6.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +8.5 (+2.2), 2. MEMPHIS +10.5 (+2.0), 3. MIAMI +2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -15 (+2.2), 2. MINNESOTA -6 (+1.4), 3. CHICAGO -8 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-BOS UNDER 223 (-2.7), 2. MEM-SAC UNDER 221.5 (-1.8), 3. ATL-LAL UNDER 225.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +8.5 (+1.9), 2(tie). MIAMI +2.5 (+1.6) and UTAH +6 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -15 (+3.8), 2. SACRAMENTO -10.5 (+3.6), 3. CHICAGO -8 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-LAL OVER 225.5 (+2.8), 2. MEM-SAC OVER 221.5 (+0.2), 3. MIA-PHI OVER 208.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-BOS UNDER 223 (-2.6), 2. CLE-IND UNDER 226 (-1.0), 3. POR-CHI UNDER 213.5 (-0.7)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(571) ATLANTA at (572) LA LAKERS
* The last five games of the ATL-LAL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(557) CLEVELAND at (558) INDIANA
* INDIANA is on a 5-1 ATS run vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(559) DETROIT at (560) BOSTON
* The last four games of the DET-BOS series in Boston went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(569) MEMPHIS at (570) SACRAMENTO
* The last six games of the MEM-SAC series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(561) MIAMI at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* MIAMI has won the last four ATS at Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(565) MINNESOTA at (566) UTAH
* MINNESOTA is on an 8-0 ATS run at Utah
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(567) NEW YORK at (568) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are on a 9-3 ATS run in the NYK-GSW series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(563) PORTLAND at (564) CHICAGO
* Favorites have won the last four ATS in the POR-CHI series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
