The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, LA CLIPPERS, MILWAUKEE, LA LAKERS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-DET, PHI-LAC, IND-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NOP-DET, IND-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in NOP-DET, PLAY OVER in PHI-LAC, PLAY OVER in CLE-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in IND-LAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 29-13 SU and 25-17 ATS (59.5%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/24 vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-9.5 vs PHI)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 22-50 SU and 22-50 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/24: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Minnesota
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MIN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 150-30 SU but just 75-102-3 ATS (42.4%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-12.5 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-62 (56.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-119 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 192-139 (58%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in NOP-DET (o/u at 217.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 125-44 SU and 104-63-2 ATS (62.3%) in their last 169 tries.
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-4 vs CLE)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 212-233 SU and 199-242-4 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-12.5 at DET), FADE MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs GSW)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 109-79 SU and 108-77-3 ATS (58.4%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (157-174 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (209-201 ATS, 51%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING DETROIT (+12.5 vs NOP)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +3.5 (+2.1), 2. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+1.3), 3. GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -4 (+1.3), 2. MILWAUKEE -2.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+2.2), 2. INDIANA +3.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -12.5 (+0.9), 2. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+0.7), 3. MILWAUKEE -2.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-LAL OVER 241 (+0.9), 2. PHI-LAC OVER 215 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-MIN UNDER 220 (-2.4), 2. OKC-MIL UNDER 232 (-0.8), 3. NOP-DET UNDER 217.5 (-0.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.8), 2. GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -12.5 (+1.1), 2. MIAMI -4 (+0.9), 3. LA CLIPPERS -9.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-MIN OVER 220 (+2.7), 2. PHI-LAC OVER 215 (+2.6), 3. NOP-DET OVER 217.5 (+0.8)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-MIA UNDER 203.5 (-0.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(505) CLEVELAND at (506) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 9-3 ATS hosting Cleveland since 2018
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(507) GOLDEN STATE at (508) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 ATS in the last six hosting Golden State
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(511) INDIANA at (512) LA LAKERS
* The last four games of the IND-LAL series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(501) NEW ORLEANS at (502) DETROIT
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last five ATS at Detroit
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(509) OKLAHOMA CITY at (510) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the OKC-MIL series in Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(503) PHILADELPHIA at (504) LA CLIPPERS
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 6-1 ATS run at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

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