The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, December 2, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS, OKLAHOMA CITY
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND ML (*only if they become a double-digit favorite, -9.5 currently)
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, ORLANDO ML, PORTLAND ML, DENVER ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-LAC, MIN-CHA, POR-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rdStraightHome game were 42-18 SU and 36-21-3 ATS (63.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
12/2: SACRAMENTO vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs DEN)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 21-15 SU but 15-21 ATS (41.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/2: FADE SACRAMENTO vs. Denver
System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs DEN)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 30-23 SU and 30-22-1 ATS (57.7%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/2: DALLAS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+4 vs OKC)
* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
12/2: BROOKLYN vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2.5 vs ORL)
* Over the total was 57-40 (58.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
12/2: Over the total in PHOENIX-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 218.5)
*Under the total was 30-22 (57.7%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/2: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235.5)
* Over the total was 25-13 (65.8%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
12/2: Over the total in PHOENIX-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 218.5)
* Over the total was 30-22 (57.7%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/2: Over the total in BROOKLYN-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)
12/2: Over the total in CHICAGO-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BROOKLYN is 22-8 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/2: UNDER the total in ORLANDO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 19-44 SU and 16-47 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/2: FADE GOLDEN STATE at La Clippers
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+5 at LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 70-45 SU and 67-45-3 ATS (59.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND (+1.5 at UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-52 (55.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 158-106 (59.8%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total in CLE-DET (*only if CLE becomes a double-digit favorite*)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
HUGE DIVISIONAL UPSETS BRING UNDERS
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 56-33 (62.9%). (CHI 12/2)
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NOP-CHI (o/u at 219.5)
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 185-186 SU and 155-206-10 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-3.5 vs IND), FADE ATLANTA (+6.5 at MIL)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 229-173 (57%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-MIA (o/u at 240)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 165-182 SU and 150-195-2 ATS (43.5%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+6 vs MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 185-182 SU and 162-194-11 ATS (45.5%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+6 vs MIN)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 111-42 SU and 87-64-2 ATS (57.6%).
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2.5 vs ORL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 7.3% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (124-149 ATS, 45.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (178-160 ATS, 52.7%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+9.5 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 145-185 ATS (43.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-81 SU and 40-56-3 ATS (41.7%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+9.5 vs CLE), FADE ORLANDO (+2.5 at BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 33-50 ATS (39.8%) in the next game, including 14-26 ATS (35%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (+2.5 at BKN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +4.5 (+2.5), 2(tie). GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+1.5) and MEMPHIS +9 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+3.4), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+2.6), 3. MIAMI -4 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +5 (+3.3), 2. PORTLAND +1.5 (+2.1), 3. CHARLOTTE +6 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+3.4), 2. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+3.2), 3. CLEVELAND -9.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-UTA OVER 218 (+4.8), 2. ORL-BKN OVER 226 (+2.7), 3. IND-MIA OVER 239.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-LAC UNDER 229.5 (-2.0), 2. ATL-MIL UNDER 253 (-1.8), 3. MEM-PHX UNDER 218.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ORLANDO +2.5 (+2.5) and DENVER +4.5 (+2.5), 3. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+3.3), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+0.7), 3. MINNESOTA -6 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-PHX OVER 218.5 (+2.2), 2. DEN-SAC OVER 233 (+1.8), 3. CLE-DET OVER 225.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-MIA UNDER 239.5 (-4.1), 2. ATL-MIL UNDER 253 (-2.3), 3. HOU-LAL UNDER 222.5 (-1.0)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(539) ATLANTA at (540) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams have won the last three ATS in the ATL-MIL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(535) CLEVELAND at (536) DETROIT
* The last five games of the CLE-DET series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(551) DENVER at (552) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the DEN-SAC h2h series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(531) GOLDEN STATE at (532) LA CLIPPERS
* The last three games of the GSW-LAC series in LA went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(553) HOUSTON at (554) LA LAKERS
* HOUSTON is 5-1 ATS in the last six at LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(543) INDIANA at (544) MIAMI
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the IND-MIA series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(547) MEMPHIS at (548) PHOENIX
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the MEM-PHO series in Phoenix
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(533) MINNESOTA at (534) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven versus Minnesota
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(541) NEW ORLEANS at (542) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the NOP-CHI h2h series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) DALLAS
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last six ATS versus Dallas
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(537) ORLANDO at (538) BROOKLYN
* Home teams have swept the last three ATS in the ORL-BRK series
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(549) PORTLAND at (550) UTAH
* Under the total is 5-2 in the last seven of the POR-UTA series in Utah
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
