Gladiator II and Wicked
The most anticipated week of the movie year is upon us. The release of Gladiator II and Wicked, aptly named ‘Glicked’ by movie fans has finally arrived. With the film industry continuing to question its financial viability at the box office, these movie going events are extremely important to the film industry.
Other than being important to the box office, this weekend is also a big opportunity for odds to move in the Academy Awards market. In a relatively weak movie year, where it will be tough to fill out the Best Picture category requirement of 10 nominations, both Gladiator II & Wicked have a chance to ride the momentum of the box office and critical acclaim to the Dolby Theatre at the Oscars. The following will not include spoilers so feel free to read through where I believe these movies will contend for awards consideration.
Gladiator II (20/1)
The sequel to the 2000 Oscar winner of the same name continues nearly 25 years after the death of Maximus. This film is currently sitting at (20/1) in the Best Picture odds and I would project that it will move down to around the (15/1) range, if not slightly lower. Much of the early buzz is praising the direction of Ridley Scott’s ancient Rome, utilizing a mixture of practical and visual effects for the larger-than-life Colosseum battles and massive combat sequences throughout the film. Although it will not be scored by the legendary Hans Zimmer, who was responsible for the magnificent score from the first film, much is being made about composer Harry Gregson-Williams’ take on the Roman republic and is being projected as a nominee this year.
Let’s take a look at the acting categories where the bulk of the noise being made is from Denzel Washington’s commanding performance as Macrinus, a conniving gladiator proprietor and politician. He would be competing in the Supporting Actor category and, with a relatively light year, his chances look very good. He steals every scene and could very well grab his 10th nomination and third Oscar win for his performance. Odds are not out yet, but I would not be surprised to see him as the favorite or even odds on when they finally do drop.
Looking at the Best Actor category it could be a very interesting year. With three essential locks for nominations – Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (-155), Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (+250), Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (+300) – the last two spots could be up for grabs for the likes of Timotheé Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (10/1), Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (12/1). This includes Paul Mescal (14/1) who will most likely have a bump to (10/1) before the weekend is over. These movies are perfect for stars like this because you get to pick your spots to show off your acting chops, but also get to flex your action star muscles. I would have him in at the moment, but it will come down to the taste of the academy.
Categories I think Gladiator II could be nominated in:
Best Picture: 20/1
Best Director: Ridley Scott (+400)
Best Actor: Paul Mescal (14/1)
Best Supporting Actor: Denzel Washington
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Visual Effects
Best Score
Best Sound
Best Ensemble
Wicked (18/1)
On the opposite end of the theater, we have Wicked directed by Jon M. Chu, who you might be familiar with from his work on Crazy Rich Asians, the adaptation of the Broadway musical of the same name. With an intense build up for its stars, Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, criss-crossing the globe with a stop at the Paris Olympics to plug the film and strong pre-release sales, Wicked is looking at an opening weekend haul of between $125-150 million.
With that being said, what does this mean for Wicked’s Academy Awards aspirations? It’s looking much stronger than it did three months ago. With a weaker field this year, Wicked could find itself in the final 10 contenders at the Oscars. This doesn’t mean it will win, and I don’t think it will, but it would be a great achievement for this film to make it to Oscar night. Of the more prestigious categories, I believe Ariana Grande has a shot to be nominated in the Supporting Actress category as Glinda. No odds are available, and with the Supporting Actress category being relatively weak this year as well, I could see her getting a nomination here.
Where I believe this film to contend the most is in the below the line categories like Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, Costume Design, Best Score and Best Visual Effects. The one category missing might surprise you is Best Original Song, which you would expect in a musical, but they are only using music from the original Broadway production, which is not eligible in this category. But, with the immense world-building required to bring the world of Oz to life, I could see Wicked taking home some hardware here. Unfortunately many of the below the line categories won’t be available to bet until nomination day sometime in January.
Categories I think Wicked could be nominated in:
Best Picture: 18/1
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Best Visual Effects
Best Film Editing
Best Score
Best Ensemble
MY CURRENT BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Dune Part 2 (+700)
Anora (+125)
The Brutalist (+225) (Projected)
Conclave (+900)
Sing Sing (+700) (Projected)
Gladiator II (20/1)
Wicked (18/1)
The Wild Robot (80/1) (Animated)
A Real Pain (40/1)
Emilia Perez (+600) (International)
