2024 NFL Betting Guide:

On June 27, we released the 2024 NFL Betting Guide for VSiN subscribers. Along with a nifty PDF version that subscribers can get right here, we have posted the content of that publication to VSiN.com. This is the landing page for all of the links to the NFL Betting Guide content.

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Features

Brent Musburger’s Super Bowl Pick

Matt Youmans and Bookmakers Discuss Super Bowl Odds

Michael Lombardi’s Thoughts on the New NFL Head Coaches

Josh Appelbaum on How To Use NFL Betting Splits

Steve Makinen’s Analysis of New NFL Head Coaches, New NFL Quarterbacks, and NFL Win Total Projections

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Division and Team Previews

AFC East (by Jonathan Von Tobel)

The AFC East is arguably the best division in football due to the level of talent at the top. Buffalo, New York and Miami all have win totals of 9.5 or higher and all three expect to compete for a Super Bowl title. In fact, all three teams are +1100 or better to win the AFC at DraftKings, and each of them are favored to make the postseason.

The strength of this division lies in its quarterbacks.

Josh Allen is a perennial MVP candidate who is coming off one of his strongest seasons. Tua Tagovailoa is off a career year and runs an offense that has the best wide receiver duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Fame quarterback. Questions linger about how productive he can be as a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles injury, but his top level of production is among the best we have seen at the position.

At the bottom of the division are the lowly Patriots, but even New England offers a challenge on Sundays. Over the last two seasons, the Patriots are the fourth-best defensive team by EPA standards. The unit has made both Allen and Tagovailoa look average at times over that span. But, they enter a new era at both head coach and quarterback, and they have one of the hardest schedules in the league.

Regardless of where you rank this division, it figures to be one of the most competitive in football. The three best teams have implied probabilities of 4.3% or higher of winning the Super Bowl. Three of the four starting quarterbacks in the division are among the contenders for MVP. Much like last season, this is a division that won’t be decided until the last week. We could also very well see the Super Bowl winner come from the AFC East.

AFC North (by Adam Burke)

The AFC North featured the team with the best record in the NFL and also finished as the only one with four teams that had winning records. The 9-8 Bengals finished last and could potentially reap the benefits of a last-place schedule. The 13-4 Ravens finished two wins clear of any other AFC team, but lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

That pushed the streak out to 12 seasons without a Super Bowl appearance for the Ravens, who actually won the division for the first time since 2019. In fact, as solid as this division seems to be on an annual basis, the Super Bowl XLVII triumph for Baltimore remains the last Super Bowl victory. The Bengals have the only other Super Bowl appearance.

It would seem that the Ravens and Bengals are legitimate contenders for the Lombardi Trophy this season, but the Browns, Ravens, and Steelers rank first, second, and third in strength of schedule by opponents’ win percentage last season. The Steelers and Browns also rank among the five hardest schedules based on opponents’ season win total odds.

That would seem to leave the Bengals in the best position to represent the division come February, but the health of Joe Burrow is at the top of the list of questions for AFC North teams and maybe for the NFL as a whole. Lingering questions about Deshaun Watson cannot be ignored, nor can the fits of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the Steel City, where Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.

Is it as simple as defaulting to the Ravens and the relative lack of uncertainty regarding perennial MVP candidate Lamar Jackson? It might be, but all four teams feature talented rosters and tremendous upside as the 2024 season looms.

AFC South (by Wes Reynolds)

From 2020 to 2022, the Houston Texans went 11-38-1 overall and went through four different head coaches. Last year, the Texans turned to their past and hired 2022 NFL Assistant Coach of the Year in 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, who started his playing career with the franchise in 2006. Next, they drafted C.J. Stroud, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Will Anderson, Defensive Rookie of the Year, back-to-back with the second and third overall picks. The Texans went 10-7 and won their first playoff game since 2019. Things can change quickly in the AFC South and now all of a sudden the Texans have gone from ‘hunter’ to ‘hunted’ as the +105 division favorite. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars (+275) looked as if they were going to live up to expectations in 2023 with an 8-3 start to the season, but they could not hold up as last year’s AFC South favorite mainly due to a laundry list of injuries to Trevor Lawrence and an offensive line that ranked 27th out of 32 teams per PFF. The Jaguars ended up losing five of their last six games and missing the playoffs. Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million deal earlier this summer, so expectations are high once again in Jacksonville. 

The Indianapolis Colts (3/1) still managed to go 9-8 despite losing Anthony Richardson five weeks into the season due to an AC joint sprain. Indianapolis lost a winner-take-all game at home in Week 18 to Houston, yet did not make many changes within the roster in terms of free agency. 

Brian Callahan, former offensive coordinator with the Bengals, comes to Nashville replacing Mike Vrabel as head coach of the Tennessee Titans (10/1). He brings his father and former NFL head coach Bill Callahan in with him to retool a porous offensive line in front of Will Levis. It is a new era in Tennessee as Vrabel, Ryan Tannehill, and Derrick Henry have all departed Music City.

AFC West (by Matt Youmans)

It would be too bold to proclaim there’s a new sheriff in town, but the AFC West is about to get wild. The Chiefs, who have owned the division for eight straight years, are shooting for the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. Still, as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid continue to chase historic accomplishments in Kansas City, a powerful force of nature has arrived to challenge their neighborhood dominance and share the media spotlight. Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers’ new coach, is not about to concede anything to the Chiefs. Harbaugh has a gunslinging quarterback, Justin Herbert, and a confident team that should be taken seriously.

Believe it or not, the Raiders actually shared the best record in division games (4-2) with the Chiefs a year ago. Las Vegas interim coach Antonio Pierce posted a 5-4 record, including an upset victory in Kansas City, and earned the full-time job. While the Raiders are searching for their franchise quarterback, they do have a set of wide receivers and tight ends that rank among the NFL’s elite. The Broncos enter the second year of the Sean Payton era with quarterback questions of their own and what appears to be the worst roster in the division.

Since becoming the starting quarterback in Kansas City, Mahomes has a 30-5 record versus division opponents — 12-1 against the Broncos, 10-2 against the Raiders and 8-2 against the Chargers. The big gap between the Chiefs and the little three is closing, however.

Kansas City, the Super Bowl favorite at +550, remains the odds-on division favorite (-225) at DraftKings. The Chargers, set to shed their label as underachievers, are the second choice (+300). The Harbaugh hype is real, so consider buying in while the price is right. The Raiders (12-1) and Broncos (15-1) are long shots in the two-horse race.

NFC East (by Zachary Cohen)

The Eagles had trouble bouncing back from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Despite being favored to win the division, Philadelphia went 11-6 and needed a wild-card spot to make the playoffs last season. The Eagles ultimately got romped by the Buccaneers in the postseason, losing 32-9 at Raymond James Stadium. Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense couldn’t get anything going, and the defense allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 337 yards with three touchdowns. 

In fairness, it seemed as though Hurts was playing through injuries all year long, so it’s entirely possible that Philadelphia will bounce back in a big way. And, as always, Howie Roseman and the aggressive Eagles front office reloaded in the offseason. That is why Philadelphia is a small favorite to reclaim its spot atop the NFC East. 

The Cowboys are second on the odds board to win the division, and doing so would mean being the first team to win the NFC East in back-to-back years since the Eagles won four in a row from 2001 to 2004. Last season, Dallas rode a career year from Dak Prescott to a 12-5 record, and the Cowboys will again feel good about their chances in the division — and the conference. Of course, Dan Quinn left his job as Dallas’ defensive coordinator to be the head man in Washington. But the Cowboys were able to replace him with Mike Zimmer, one of the most respected defensive minds in the game. 

Speaking of Quinn, his Commanders are third on the board to win this division. Washington will be a fun team to watch this year, as Quinn should be able to get more out of a defense that has talent in place. The Commanders also drafted LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, with the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels has a big arm and can dazzle with his legs, and he could take this offense to another level. But how soon will he do it? 

The Giants sit at the bottom of the division on the odds board, as they’re coming off a season in which they went 6-11. New York lost starter Daniel Jones to a torn ACL last year. Jones is expected to be back at the start of the season, but what does that mean for the Giants? A lot of people wanted New York to draft a quarterback. Instead, the Giants went with LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers. But the team is still relatively weak as an overall offensive unit. And the Giants were lousy on the defensive side of the ball last year. Brian Daboll has worked magic with this New York team before. But this year’s group is facing an uphill climb.

NFC North (by Adam Burke)

After winning a division title for the first time since 1993, the Lions are favored to repeat as division champs – a feat that they have not achieved since winning three straight from 1952-54. Standing in their way are an improved Packers team, a much improved Bears bunch, and a rebuilding Vikings crew that may only be favored in one game this season if the summer betting lines are to be trusted.

In some respects, it is easy to see the Lions winning 12 or more games like they did last season and removing most of the doubt and drama from the division. On the other hand, the Packers are in the second year of the Jordan Love era and Caleb Williams will inject some life into a Bears offense that should be better equipped to stand up alongside a very solid defense.

Based on opponents’ win percentage from last season, the Bears do get a kind schedule for Williams’ first season at the helm and the degree of difficulty is higher late in the year. The same is true if we use current Super Bowl odds and season win total odds, leaving Chicago with a bottom-five schedule. The Lions, with that first-place schedule, have a schedule that is tougher than average and the Packers grade somewhere in the middle with some lofty expectations.

The Lions went 4-2 against division foes last year, but they had some issues with the Vikings and lost as a big Thanksgiving favorite to the Packers, so nothing is guaranteed. While it looks like Dan Campbell’s division to lose, the Lions, Packers, and Bears are all under +300 to win the NFC North and this trio serves as yet another example of the parity that we seem to have around the league heading into the 2024 season.

Up until last season, the Packers had won the NFC North in eight of the last 12 seasons. Will the changing of the guard be fully cemented in Motown or will the upstart Bears pull a Houston Texans and be a surprise division champ?

NFC South (by Tyler Shoemaker)

The NFL South is undoubtedly one of the weaker divisions in the NFL virtually every year. Using my proprietary ratings system, the T Shoe Index, as a reference, this year shouldn’t be as bottom-dwelling as some years have been for this division because, aside from the Carolina Panthers, the other three teams are projected more in the middle of the pack than the casual fan would probably expect. Even Carolina, whom the TSI has projected as the worst team in the league, should conceivably start to show a pulse by year’s end with Bryce Young in Year 2 under center. 

The Falcons added Kirk Cousins and then also drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round, plus return Bijan Robinson at running back, so they project to take a step up this year. 

New Orleans drafted Derek Carr some help on the offensive line with its first-round pick and will return a pretty veteran-laden roster so they should be a competent team in 2024 despite losing WR Michael Thomas. 

The defending division champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, were able to hold onto Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield and gave star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. the franchise tag to retain him in 2024, so they should be right back in championship contention for a fifth year in a row this year.

NFC West (by Mike Somich)

One of the most intriguing divisions in football ratcheted it up a notch in the offseason. Reigning NFC West champion San Francisco has their eyes in the rearview mirror as all three teams made significant moves in the off-season to improve. The division added one of the top head coaching prospects, Mike Macdonald, to Seattle and the best wide receiver in the draft, Marvin Harrison Jr., to Arizona.  

The 49ers boast the second-highest win total in the NFL, behind only the Chiefs, and are coming off a Super Bowl appearance. It’s all systems go on the offensive side, but there will be questions on the defensive side while being a short price to win the division at -195.

The Rams are the second-choice pick at +330. They improved through the 2023 season and look to return to the playoffs on the back of an offense that has immense talent at the skill positions. The defense will be the question mark again this year with the loss of Aaron Donald.

The Seahawks are gaining some preseason buzz with new head coach Mike Macdonald. He will try to revamp a young defense that has drafted extremely well over the last two seasons. Injuries stunted the offense last year. They will need to stay healthy, especially on the offensive line, if they want to upset the division at +700.

The Cardinals are a longshot to win the NFC West at +1300. Last season, they were frisky while lacking overall talent. Heading into 2024, the outlook is significantly better with a healthy Kyler Murray and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. Like other divisional opponents, the questions will be on the defensive side of the ball, where there are still plenty of holes to fill.

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