MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young is posting a 3.33 ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed, but also just 7.4 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings for a 3.95 fielding independent. Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has been reliable all season long with a 3.09 ERA and 3.36 fielding independent, but might be rusty as he is coming off the injured list and making his first start since July 30. He may not go as deep into this game as he normally would, and that looms large after Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta failed to fill five innings on Sunday.
Pick: Orioles vs. Rays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Since Juan Soto went down with an injury, the Mets are averaging just under 4.9 runs per game in his 21-game absence and face Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler, who owns a 4.88 ERA this season. While his 4.29 fielding independent suggests positivity, his ERA elevates to 5.47 away from home with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean owns a 3.42 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but has struggled at home with a 4.15 ERA and nearly 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed while supplying a 2.70 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings away from home. The Padres are averaging over 5.3 runs per game since the All-Star Break, which ranks fourth in the league.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -115 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -139 and Total 8.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez is due for regression on his 2.96 ERA, with his fielding independent sitting at 4.19 with 6.8 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings, but benefits from being supported by a bullpen that is second in the National League in ERA at 3.50. The Twins are 26th in bullpen ERA at 4.76, while starting pitcher Bailey Ober has a 4.64 ERA and 4.78 fielding independent with a career-low 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Braves are sixth in the league in scoring with over 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -145 and Total 8.8
8:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
While both starting pitchers do not have great numbers, Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has a 3.74 ERA but a higher 4.56 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and six home runs allowed in his past three starts. White Sox starting pitcher Luis Castillo owns a 4.96 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, but both pitchers will benefit from the wind blowing in. In the case of Castillo, his first start in the city of Chicago was his best, going six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds last week.
Pick: White Sox vs. Cubs Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
8:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Entering Sunday, the Dodgers rank just 24th in run production since July 1 with under four runs per game. Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano has gotten the job done for bettors, being the most profitable pitcher in baseball: If a bettor placed a $100 moneyline bet on every game Sugano has started this season, they would be up $1,436. Sugano owns a 4.43 ERA and 5.41 fielding independent with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and only 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but that ERA falls to 3.93 with just under 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed at home. Dodgers starting pitcher Blake Snell is making just his third start of the season, but is coming off hurling six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals last week.
Pick: Rockies Run Line +1.5 +140 and Under 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rockies +1.5 +125 and Total 10.7
