Super Bowl 59:

Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Westgate SuperContest, shared his expert insights with host Gill Alexander on A Numbers Game to discuss how sharp bettors are approaching Super Bowl 59. If you want to bet smarter—not harder—here’s everything you need to know.

1. The Line Movement: Why the Eagles Will Close as Favorites

Right now, the Chiefs are a slight favorite, but Fezzik is adamant: the Eagles will close as the favorite before kickoff. Why? Because the analytics-driven sharp money is flowing toward Philly.

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

He breaks it down:

  • Buffalo closed as a pick’em at Arrowhead in the playoffs.
  • Now, on a neutral field in New Orleans, the Eagles—who Fezzik considers at least as good as Buffalo—should be favored.
  • Eagles fans will dominate the crowd, creating a slight home-field disadvantage for the Chiefs.

Fezzik’s move? Bet Eagles +1 now before the line flips.

2. The Smartest Way to Bet the Moneyline

If you’re betting on the Chiefs, patience is key. Fezzik predicts that as public money continues to pile on Philly, the Chiefs’ moneyline will improve. Right now, it’s sitting around -108, but he expects it to reach -103 or better by game time—especially on betting exchanges like ProfitX and Sporttrade, where you can often find 10-20% better odds than traditional sportsbooks.

His advice? If you like Kansas City, wait for a better number. If you like Philadelphia, bet now.

3. The Best First-Quarter Bet

Super Bowls often start slow. Championship-game jitters, scripted plays, and conservative coaching lead to low-scoring first quarters.

Fezzik’s move? Bet “No” on both teams to score in the first quarter.

Why is this better than just betting the first-quarter under? Because:

  • If one team scores 10 or even 14 points, you can still cash this bet.
  • Super Bowls historically start slow—this bet capitalizes on that trend.

4. Prop Betting: The Sharp Angle on Field Goals

One of Fezzik’s favorite prop bets? Chiefs Over 1.5 Field Goals (-150).

Here’s why he loves it:

  • Harrison Butker is solid, and Kansas City’s red-zone struggles make field goals likely.
  • The game is being played indoors, so weather won’t be a factor.
  • The Eagles’ defense is strong, meaning KC might settle for threes instead of sevens.

Fezzik’s logic? If you believe in the Chiefs’ offense, you should also believe in them kicking at least two field goals.

5. The Best Way to Bet the Eagles

If you like Philly, don’t bet them for the full game—bet them for the first half.

Fezzik’s rationale:

  • The Eagles are the better team on paper, but Mahomes is magic in crunch time.
  • By betting Eagles first half (+100), you capitalize on their statistical advantage while avoiding late-game Mahomes heroics.
  • If you want to go even further, consider betting the Eagles +0.5 in each quarter—Fezzik believes you’ll win at least 3 out of 4.

6. The Art of Super Bowl Live Betting

Fezzik doesn’t just bet before the game—he bets during the game. His approach?

  • Target public overreactions. If a team starts hot, the live line will overcorrect—creating opportunities.
  • Bet against the public’s tendencies. If the public pounds the player props to the Over, look for value on the Under.
  • Bet right before kickoff. The Super Bowl is unique—public money moves lines in ways it wouldn’t during the regular season.

Pro Tip: If you’re betting live, Fezzik recommends having multiple sportsbook apps open to shop for the best numbers in real time.

Final Takeaways from Fezzik

  • Eagles +1 is the sharp bet—take it before they flip to favorites.
  • If you like the Chiefs, wait—better odds are coming.
  • Bet “No” on both teams scoring in the first quarter.
  • Chiefs Over 1.5 Field Goals (-150) is a sharp prop.
  • Eagles First Half (+100) is a smarter play than Eagles full game.
  • Live betting is where sharp bettors clean up—so be ready.

This isn’t just about picking a winner—it’s about betting smarter. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just throwing down a few bucks for fun, following Fezzik’s sharp insights will put you in the best position to profit on Super Bowl 59.

For the entire clip, watch here and subscribe to our VSiN YouTube page:

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR