Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Monday Night Football: Eagles-Chiefs

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football.

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 45.5)

The Eagles (8-1) have won three straight and just took down the Cowboys 28-23, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (7-2) just edged the Dolphins 21-14 in Germany, covering as a 1-point neutral site favorite. Both teams are coming off a bye. 

This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and currently 55% of bets are taking the points with the Eagles. However, despite a majority of bets taking Philadelphia, this line hasn’t budged off Chiefs -2.5. In fact, it has even briefly risen to -3 at times throughout the week. The Chiefs -2.5 is being juiced up to -115 or -120, signaling a possible rise back up to -3. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability appears to be on Kansas City. The Chiefs are receiving 45% of bets but 58% of money, further evidence of smart money backing the home team.

Kansas City has rare "Fade the Trendy dog" value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year are 34-20 ATS (63%) this season. Favorites off a bye are 169-134 ATS (56%) over the past two decades. Andy Reid is 21-3 straight up off a bye. Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 5-0 off a bye. Mahomes is 34-7 straight up (83%) in his career as a home favorite. Jalen Hurts is 27-5 (84%) straight up a a favorite but just 3-7 (30%) straight up as a dog. 

Those looking to back the Chiefs but are wary of laying points could instead target Kansas City on the moneyline -145. We saw two instances yesterday or short favorites winning on the moneyline but not covering the short spread (Broncos and Rams). 

Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 45.5. This movement is notable because 72% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the under. Primetime unders are 26-8 (76%) this season. Non-conference unders are 36-19 (65%). The forecast calls for mid 40s with 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 123-67 (65%) since 2021. The Chiefs are 7-2 to the under this season.