Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)
The Eagles (10-3) have lost two straight games and just got crushed by the Cowboys 33-13, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Seahawks (6-7) have lost four straight and just fell to the 49ers 28-16 but managed to cover as 15-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Eagles listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public says there’s no way the mighty Eagles lose three straight and tonight is a "get right" for Philadelphia. However, despite 82% of bets laying the points with Philadelphia we’ve seen the Eagles fall from -4.5 to -3. This line briefly fell to -2.5 over the past 24-hours. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Seattle, with pros buying low on the desperate home team plus the points.
Seattle is only receiving 18% of bets, making them the top contrarian play of Week 15. Primetime dogs are 114-87 ATS (57%) since 2020. Conference dogs +6 or less are 326-249 ATS (57%) since 2019. Pete Carroll is 4-3 ATS as a dog this season and 51-34 ATS (60%) as a dog in his career. Those looking to go contrarian and back Seattle would be wise to hold out for a hook on the +3.5, as some books are juiced up to the Eagles -3 at -115 signaling a possible rise before kickoff.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 to 45. Currently 40% of bets but 50% of money is taking the under, a sharp contrarian bet split. When the total falls at least a half point the under is 78-46 (63%) this season. Primetime unders are 31-17 (65%) this season. When two teams who made the playoffs the previous season face off, the under is 29-15 (66%). Seattle is one of the slowest teams in the NFL, ranking 28th in pace of play. The forecast calls for mid 40s with 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
Injuries could play a major role in this game. Jalen Hurts is questionable with an illness but expected to play. Meanwhile, Geno Smith is questionable with a groin. If Smith can’t go we will likely see Drew Lock start at quarterback for Seattle.
Player Prop to Consider: DK Metcalf over 71.5 receiving yards (+125 alternate line). Metcalf has gone over this number in 3 of his last 5 games. Metcalf is tied with Tyler Lockett for the most targets on the team (93). The Eagles rank 29th in passing defense, allowing 260 yards per game. Philadelphia will also be without top CB Darius Slay due to injury.
