Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Thursday Night Football Broncos-Chiefs

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football…

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 47)

The Broncos (1-4) just fell to the Jets 31-21, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Chiefs (4-1) have won four straight and just took down the Vikings 27-20, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. 

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout win for Patrick Mahomes and company, with 75% of bets laying the points with the Chiefs at home. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen the Chiefs remain frozen at -10.5 or only slightly tick up to -11 at some shops. This signals a bit of a line freeze on the Broncos, with sportsbooks reluctant to adjust the number too far in favor of the popular Chiefs for fear of handing out a better number to contrarian Broncos bettors. 

The Broncos have "bet against the public" value, receiving only 25% of bets in a primetime game. Divisional dogs are 14-10 ATS (58%) this season and 176-134 ATS (57%) since 2020. Divisional dogs tend to bark louder due to the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.

Mahomes is just 36-39 ATS (48%) as a favorite in his career. As a favorite of 10-points or more he is just 8-13 ATS (38%). Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS). Chiefs star TE Travis Kelce is listed as questionable for tonight with a low ankle sprain. This is a big injury worth monitoring leading up to game time, as it could affect the spread depending on Kelce’s status. 

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from as high as 51.5 to 47. The under is only receiving 51% of bets but 77% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" sharp bet split. Unders are 44-34 (56%) this season. When the total falls at least a half point the under is 31-16 (66%) this season and 200-147 (58%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 9-6 (60%) this season and 131-86 (60%) since 2019.

Weather could also play a factor tonight, as the forecast calls for 15+ MPH winds, with a chance of severe storms and gusts up to 40 MPH. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 8-0 this season and 110-62 (64%) since 2021. Windy unders 10 MPH or more in conference games are 6-0 this season and 45-17 (73%) since 2022. Wind is the friend of an under, as it makes it harder to throw and kick the ball. As a result, teams tend to run it more, which chews up the clock. Hochuli has historically favored unders (57%).