The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season features the Miami Dolphins hosting the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Bills vs. Dolphins

When: Thursday, September 12th at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida

Channel: Prime Video

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

(Odds as of Tuesday, September 10th)

Moneyline: Dolphins -125, Bills +105

Spread: Dolphins -2 (-110), Bills +2 (-110)

Total: Over 49 (-110), Under 49 (-110)

Bills vs. Dolphins Analysis

The Jaguars rushed for 128 yards on 26 carries against the Dolphins last week, but Miami’s rushing defense was a bit better than that 4.9 yards per carry suggests. The Dolphins actually had a Rush EPA per play allowed of -0.428, which was the third-best mark in the league in Week 1. The league-best Rush EPA per play allowed in 2023 was -0.190. With that in mind, I like Miami to keep Buffalo’s running game in check. And it’s not all based on a one-game sample. The Dolphins were 14th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed last season, and they have invested heavily in the defensive side of the ball. If Miami can do a decent job of keeping Josh Allen and James Cook contained on the ground, the Dolphins really shouldn’t lose this game.

It’s just hard to ignore what Miami has in the secondary, especially in comparison to the current Buffalo receiving corps. I’m not sure the loss of Stefon Diggs will be as big as it seems on paper, and the Bills offense definitely looked good in Week 1 — at least after a very slow start. But it’s hard to imagine guys like Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel consistently creating space against Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller. And Miami defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will definitely have a plan in place to slow down Dalton Kincaid. That’s not to say that the Bills won’t have any success in this game. I actually lean towards going with the Over when it comes to the total. But that matchup between Buffalo’s receivers and Miami’s corners definitely makes it a little hard to believe the Bills offense will be able to keep up with the Dolphins.

Last season, the Bills were one of the worst teams in the league when it came to Rush EPA per play allowed. So, even though the Dolphins are a little banged up in the backfield, I like their chances of being effective on the ground here. Whether it’s De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson Jr., we know that we can expect a good running game from a Mike McDaniel offense — especially in the right matchups. If the Dolphins do end up setting up manageable situations for Tua Tagovailoa, he’ll torch the Bills the eventually. Buffalo actually did a decent job of preventing Tyreek Hill from shaking free last season, but the Bills defense has been trending downwards over the last couple of seasons. And on a short week, it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario in which the secondary isn’t as prepared as usual. That said, I’d expect a big play or two from Hill or Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins are also 14-4 straight-up at home since the start of the 2022 season. Meanwhile, the Bills were just 4-4 on the road in 2023 and they were also 1-2 in road games in which they were underdogs.

Bills vs. Dolphins Player Props

Jeff Wilson Anytime TD Scorer (+240)

Achane and Mostert are both dealing with injuries, so it might make sense to put a little something on Wilson to find the end zone. It’s still entirely possible that we see them out there, but the quick turnaround from Sunday to Thursday could force Miami to play it safe. In Achane’s case, it would make a lot of sense. The explosive second-year back missed significant time last season. The Dolphins likely won’t put him in harm’s way, especially with how he looked when he returned from injury against the Jaguars. He really limped to the finish line.

Wilson looked pretty good in his limited playing time against Jacksonville. He rushed five times for 26 yards and McDaniel knows he can trust Wilson with a heavy workload occasionally. If he ends up getting one, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t score. This has the potential to turn into a shootout, and Wilson is an efficient runner when his team gets near the goal line.

I also don’t think it’s crazy to believe that Wilson can score even if one of the other two backs plays, which is why I’m okay with sprinkling this. The only scenario in which I’d hate this play is if both Achane and Mostert are active.

If you’re looking for a more conservative option, I also like Mack Hollins Over 1.5 receptions. Hollins caught each of his two targets for 25 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals last week. He might not have a massive role in Buffalo’s offense, but he’s a big target that Allen can look to in crucial moments. He also won’t be a focal point of the Miami scouting report, so he could slide a little under the radar.

Bills vs. Dolphins Pick

It’s just hard to come up with reasons to like the Bills in this game. Sure, Buffalo has won four consecutive games in this head-to-head series, but this isn’t the same Bills team. This Buffalo group is a little worse on both sides of the ball, and Miami is only getting better. The Dolphins will also use the recent head-to-head results as motivation. So, I’m playing the home team on a short week. And I’m going with the moneyline, as you don’t have to pay up that much to avoid laying 1.5 to 2 points.

Pick: Dolphins ML (-120)

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