The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season features the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to the Week 5 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Falcons

When: Thursday, October 3rd at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia

Channel: Prime Video

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, October 1st. Make sure you look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Falcons -125, Buccaneers +105

Spread: Falcons -1.5 (-110), Buccaneers +1.5 (-110)

Total: Over 43.5 (-110), Under 43.5 (-110)

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Analysis

The Buccaneers were getting 3 when this thing first opened, but that has been bet down a bit. The total has also come down about a point, opening at 44.5 and now sitting at 43.5 at most sportsbooks. And while I don’t have a strong preference when it comes to the side or total in this game, I tend to agree with the way these odds are moving.

It’s just very hard to ignore how disappointing this Falcons team has been. Atlanta could very well be 0-4 right now, but Philadelphia gifted the team a win in Week 2. The Falcons then found a way to beat the Saints last week despite the fact that they didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. New Orleans probably wins that game if not for a muffed punt that turned into a touchdown for Atlanta. The Saints also committed a pass interference that led to the game-winning field goal for Younghoe Koo, so it’s not like Raheem Morris’ team drove down the field in impressive fashion.

As things stand, the Falcons are just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048) and 23rd in EPA per play allowed (0.028). This is a below average team on both sides of the ball right now. The Buccaneers haven’t been much better defensively, as they’re just 21st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.021). But they would probably be a little higher if Vita Vea played against the Broncos in Week 3. Also, Tampa Bay has been far superior on offense, as the team is ninth in EPA per play (0.069) and eighth when it comes to Dropback EPA per play (0.133).

Overall, it’s just hard not to have a little more trust in Baker Mayfield than Kirk Cousins right now, which might be a little surprising given what we’ve seen in both of their careers. But Mayfield is PFF’s 10th-ranked passer this year, and Cousins is just 23rd in those rankings. Mayfield is also a little more aggressive in looking to make plays. So, Tampa Bay’s offense is the more reliable group here, and the defense is probably a little better too.

The Buccaneers are also 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and Tampa Bay is also 8-4 ATS as a road underdog under Todd Bowles.

As far as the total goes, neither one of these offenses has been explosive enough to warrant an Over play. And both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, as well as offensive coordinators that value the running games.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Player Props

Rachaad White Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

While Bucky Irving has been seeing more and more snaps in this Buccaneers offense, the team isn’t going to just ditch White completely. He has been far too productive since entering the league, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. And this is a matchup in which Tampa Bay can really take advantage of his hands. The Falcons have had some trouble keeping good pass-catching backs in check this season. Saquon Barkley had four receptions for 21 yards against Atlanta in Week 2, and Alvin Kamara had seven catches for 42 yards against the Falcons last week. With that in mind, I think it’s worth playing White to have at least 20 yards in this game. He has gone Over 19.5 in two of his four games this season, and he really should have done so in a five-catch, 18-yard performance against Denver. White also cleared this number very easily in two meetings with Atlanta last year, averaging 49.0 yards per game in those contests. He also had 28 receiving yards in one of his two games against the Falcons in his rookie season. That’s at least 20 yards in three of his four career meetings with Atlanta.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Pick

I’m going to be sitting this game out. I just don’t love anything. Divisional matchups can be tough, especially on Thursday nights. And I’m just not sure what to expect out of either of these teams moving forward. However, if I absolutely had to play something, I’d go with the White player prop. He’s one of the better pass-catching backs in football and has a good matchup here. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen will likely dial up quite a few plays to take advantage of his ability to make things happen in the open field.

Lean: White Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

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