The Sao Paulo Game in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season features the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Los Angeles Chargers at Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime and standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Chiefs vs. Chargers
When: Friday, September 5th at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil
Channel: YouTube
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 2nd, but make sure you shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Chargers +142
Spread: Chiefs -3 (-115), Chargers +3 (-105)
Total: Over 45.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Chargers Analysis
This is a tough game to call when it comes to the side, as there are good reasons to like both teams.
With Kansas City, what’s not to like? The Chiefs are coming off another Super Bowl appearance, Patrick Mahomes is back with what could be an improved offensive line and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense should be stellar once again. Kansas City is also 50-24-1 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are also 6-1 both straight-up and ATS on a neutral field under Reid. And when push comes to shove, if this game is close late, having Mahomes under center is a little more valuable than having Justin Herbert.
The issue is that the Super Bowl loser is 6-19 ATS over the past 25 seasons. And while you might want to throw that trend away with a team as successful as the Chiefs, it isn’t crazy to think that this team will struggle to find motivation early on. There also wasn’t much that separated these teams when looking at their statistical profiles in 2024. While the Chiefs had a slight advantage in EPA per play (0.071 vs. 0.044), the Chargers had them beat in EPA per play allowed (-0.054 vs. 0.006). Los Angeles also has a little more to play for, as the team is looking for its first win over Kansas City since September 26th, 2021. I’ll also note that the Chargers are 5-0-1 ATS versus division opponents under Jim Harbaugh, and they had one win and one push against the Chiefs last year. That said, they’re knocking on the door of earning that outright victory, and you shouldn’t be surprised if it happens in an early-season meeting in another country. These games can be a little random.
I’d personally advise staying away from either team. Instead, I’d look to the Over in this game. The number has gone up since lines first became available, but there are still reasonable ones out there. And I do think this is a game in which both offenses will find some success.
The Chiefs are expecting big things from rookie left tackle Josh Simmons this season, and the group up front could be awesome if he’s even above average when it comes to protecting Mahomes’ blind side. And if Mahomes has time to throw, this offense could be more dangerous than we’ve seen in recent years. Of course, Rashee Rice is suspended to start the season, but Travis Kelce is still kicking around, speedster Xavier Worthy should be better in Year 2 and Hollywood Brown is healthy after playing only two games last season. There’s some big-play potential with these pass-catchers, and the team should also have no trouble hammering away between the tackles with Isiah Pacheco.
As for the Chargers, Herbert suddenly has a nice group of weapons with Keenan Allen back and playing alongside Ladd McConkey, who looks like a future star based on what he put on film as a rookie. And for as good as the Chiefs can be defensively, they were merely average against the pass last year. So, don’t be surprised if Herbert has a good day as a passer. Also, while Kansas City is good against the run, it’s hard to imagine a Harbaugh team not finding success on the ground — especially with a talented backfield that includes promising rookie Omarion Hampton and a productive veteran in Najee Harris.
I’m not saying this game will turn into an all-out shootout, but I can see a 24-21 or 27-24 final. Both should be enough for an Over if you’re shopping around properly.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Props
Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions (-149)
Kelce has had at least five catches in eight consecutive meetings with the Chargers, and I really don’t see that streak ending in a standalone game with a big spotlight. Kelce isn’t as fast as he once was, but he’s still a clever route runner and has extremely reliable hands. Also, when Mahomes is in trouble, he knows he can count on Kelce to step up and make plays. It also doesn’t hurt that Rice is suspended to start the season. When Rice is healthy, Mahomes sends a lot of short-yardage throws in his direction and looks for him to make things happen after the catch. But with Rice out, that should mean a little more going in Kelce’s direction.
I won’t personally be playing this one, as the juice is a little too much for me. But if you’re desperate for player prop action, or need something to throw into parlays, I’d look here.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Pick
Circa opened with this total at 44 and it’s up at 46 now. And they have it a little higher than other spots, which carries some weight with Circa having a reputation as a sharper book. This is also a meeting between two very good quarterbacks, and there’s talk of Kansas City opening up the playbook in order to find some explosiveness again. All of that should mean good things for the Over, and there’s one reputable shop with very little juice on a total of 44.5. So, that’s the way I’m playing this thing. And I’d go Over on 45 if you absolutely must.
Pick: Over 44.5 (-122)
