The Miami Dolphins have been punching bags to start the 2025 NFL season, but they don’t have time to throw any pity parties after last week’s loss to the New England Patriots. Miami has a Thursday Night Football date with the Buffalo Bills to kickstart Week 3, as the two will clash at Highmark Stadium on September 18th. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Dolphins vs. Bills
When: Thursday, September 18th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 16th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -800, Dolphins +550
Spread: Bills -12.5 (-112), Dolphins +12.5 (-108)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-110)
Dolphins vs. Bills Analysis
The Dolphins are coming off a 33-27 loss to the Patriots in Week 2, meaning Miami is now 0-2 with losses to two teams that weren’t in the postseason a year ago. That’s trouble for a Dolphins team that expects results from Mike McDaniel, especially with one of the NFL’s most expensive payrolls.
Miami now heads into a very tough Thursday Night Football meeting with an undefeated Buffalo squad, and the spread has ballooned up. Our VSiN betting splits page shows that the Bills were -10 when this first became available at DraftKings Sportsbook last week, but big money quickly came in and moved the spread to 12.5. And even at the current spread, it looks like the tickets and handle all show support for Buffalo.
It’s hard not to like the Bills to win this game comfortably. As of right now, Miami is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.239), and it’s the passing defense that has been a disaster for Anthony Weaver’s group. Through two weeks, the Dolphins have a Dropback EPA per play allowed of 0.478. Last year, the worst Dropback EPA per play allowed in the league was 0.241. Miami just doesn’t have anybody that can comfortably cover decent receivers, and that only got worse when the team made the decision to deal Jalen Ramsey to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
What’s crazy is that the Dolphins have looked as bad as they have despite facing Daniel Jones and Drake Maye. That’s one quarterback that has struggled throughout the entirety of his career and another that has played only 14 games. Is it possible they’re both good now? Sure. But this is Josh Allen, the best quarterback in football. Not only is Allen one of the best running quarterbacks in the league, but he’s also a top-five passer in the league when taking Pro Football Focus’ player grades into account. He should be able to pick apart this unorganized defense. And if Miami goes crazy in overcompensating to defend against the pass, James Cook will run wild. He just rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns against New York, and he’s plenty capable of turning in a similar performance here.
It is a little hard to trust the Buffalo defense right now, so Miami can do some damage on the scoreboard if the O-Line can keep Tua Tagovailoa upright. But I have my doubts there. Three players on the Dolphins line are graded below 55.0 at PFF right now, and one of the others, Aaron Brewer, is at 61.0. Patrick Paul, the left tackle, is the only player on the Miami line that is pulling his own weight, and that’s going to be an issue against a defensive front that is stacked with talent. Tagovailoa, who has a history of concussion issues, also happens to be very uncomfortable in the face of pressure right now. He freezes up and gets happy feet whenever he feels a hit is coming, which is understandable given what he has dealt with. But either way, it still makes it hard to believe in him out-dueling Allen.
The question with this game really seems to be, “Will Buffalo win big enough?” The Bills have covered in three of their last four meetings with the Dolphins, and one of the wins was a 21-point victory in Miami last year. They’re also 13-1 in their last 14 meetings with the Dolphins, and seven of those 13 wins were double-digit victories. Is another whooping coming down the pipeline?
For what it’s worth, the Dolphins are 0-3 both straight-up and against the spread on Thursdays under McDaniel. They’re also just 3-16 SU and 7-12 ATS as road underdogs in that span. Plus, if you trust what what you hear from mainstream sports outlets, this Miami team quit on McDaniel weeks ago.
Dolphins vs. Bills Player Props
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-115)
Hill had a 47-yard reception in last week’s meeting with New England, and he also had another reception that went for 22 yards. After a week in which Hill had only four catches for 40 yards against the Colts, it was clear that Tagovailoa was forcing the ball his way. And honestly, it’s hard to blame him considering Hill was fuming on the sidelines early in Week 1. Well, with things getting late rather early for Miami, I’d be pretty surprised if Tagovailoa doesn’t look Hill’s way often in Week 3.
Buffalo has actually done a decent job of keeping Hill from getting loose for big plays in recent years, but he did have a 28-yard reception the last time he played the Bills in Orchard Park. I’d be surprised if he can’t top that here. The fact that this spread has reached double digits suggests that this game is going to be a blowout, so there’s a good chance we see a good game script for Miami’s pass catchers. And if Tagovailoa is chucking the ball deep pretty regularly, I’ll take my chances with this play.
This Bills defense also happened to look miserable against the Ravens in Week 1, and I’m not reading much into what they did against the Jets in Week 2. There’s a chance this will be a leaky secondary. If it is, Hill will exploit it.
Dolphins vs. Bills Pick
I’m avoiding traditional plays in this divisional matchup. I like Buffalo to handle its business, but a spread this big reeks of a backdoor cover. Also, while I do think the Over is the right call when looking at this total, the game will slow down a little if the Bills are blowing the Dolphins out. With that in mind, I’m just playing Hill to have a reception of at least 24 yards. As long as Hill is frustrated with his role in the offense, Tagovailoa will feel as though he needs to keep his top receiver happy. And this is a matchup in which he might be able to do it. Christian Benford is a very good corner, but Hill’s speed can get to anybody over the course of a 60-minute game. Also, Benford won’t be covering Hill the entire game. When it’s the other guys, Hill should be able to create separation.
Bet: Hill Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-115)
NOTE: If I’m playing a side, total or player prop, I’ll mark it as a “bet” instead of a “lean” in this part of the article. I’ll also add it to the VSiN picks page, meaning it’s one of my official plays for the week. I do not play any “leans” and they won’t be included in my season-long record.
