Week 9 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 10. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 48.5)
This game will kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday in Berlin, Germany.
The Falcons (3-5) just came up short against the Patriots 24-23 but managed to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Colts (7-2) just fell to the Steelers 27-20, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the chalk and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Colts.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Indianapolis fall from -7 to -6.5, with several other shops even falling down to -6.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Falcons, as the line is moving toward Atlanta despite the public hammering Indianapolis.
At DraftKings, the Falcons are receiving 32% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Big dogs +6.5 or more are 154-127 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2022.
The Falcons are 3-1 ATS (75%) as a dog this season. Michael Penix is 3-2 ATS (60%) as a dog in his career, including 3-0 ATS in his last three dog opportunities overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 45.5)
The Steelers (5-3) just took down the Colts 27-20, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (6-3) just edged the Titans 27-20 but failed to cover as 10-point road favorites.
This Sunday Night Football line opened with Los Angeles listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit high and have jumped on Pittsburgh plus the points, dropping the Steelers from +4.5 to +3. In addition, much of the market is juicing up Pittsburgh +3 (-115 or -120), signaling a possible further drop off the key number of 3 down to a 2.5.
At DraftKings, the Steelers are receiving 57% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected smart money on the road dog.
Primetime dogs, like Pittsburgh here, are 16-12 ATS (57%) this season with a 9% ROI and 157-138 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020.
Mike Tomlin has excelled in this spot, going 2-1 ATS (67%) as a dog this season and 65-35 ATS (65%) with a 26% ROI as a dog in his regular season career.
Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5, with some shops down to 45.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving only 39% of bets but a whopping 85% of dollars, a massive sharp money bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 16-15 (52%) this season but 206-151 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 37.5) at New York Jets
The Browns (2-6) just got rolled by the Patriots 32-13, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Jets (1-7) just pulled off a 39-38 upset win over the Bengals, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New York listed as a 2-point home favorite.
Following the news that the Jets traded away their top two defensive players (DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner), this line completely flipped in favor of Cleveland, moving the Browns from a 2-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Browns are taking in 71% of spread bets and a whopping 91% of spread dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is receiving over 90% of spread bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-sided Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road team.
Favorites off a loss, like Cleveland here, are 31-16 ATS (66%) with a 26% ROI this season.
Favorites off a bye, also like the Browns here, are 3-2 ATS (60%) with a 12% ROI this season and 181-151 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2004. Road favorites off a bye are 73-47 ATS (61%) with a 18% ROI since 2004.
Cleveland has the edge defensively, allowing 23 PPG (17th in the NFL) compared to New York giving up 27.6 PPG (27th).
Pros have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting Cleveland on the moneyline at -145.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a Browns straight up victory.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 38.5 to 37.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 37% of bets but 67% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 75% of bets and 76% of dollars.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
