Week 10 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 11. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 43.5) at New England Patriots

The Rams (4-5) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Dolphins 23-15 and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (3-7) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bears 19-3, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. The early opener for this matchup was as high as Rams -6.5 on the road. We’ve quickly seen this line fall down to Rams -4.5. This movement is notable because the public is laying the points with Los Angeles (60% of spread bets), yet we’ve seen consistent one-way action in favor of New England. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Patriots plus the points at home. Dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 38-30 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI this season. Dogs getting 4.5-points or more and also coming off a win, like the Patriots here, are 11-6 ATS (65%) with a 23% ROI this season. New England enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Patriots played on Sunday while the Rams are on a short week having played at home on Monday night. Los Angeles is also in a classic “fade” schedule spot, as they are a West Coast team going cross country for an early 1 p.m. ET game. New England has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. The Patriots are also a prime “Wong Teaser” candidate (+4.5 to +10.5), passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. In terms of the total, it opened at 43.5 and rose to 44.5. Then we saw some sharp under buyback drop it back down to 43.5.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44)

The Falcons (6-4) just saw their two-game winning steak end, falling to the Saints 20-17 and losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos (5-5) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Chiefs 16-14 but managed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. The early opener for this game was Falcons -2 on the road. We’ve seen drastic line movement in favor of Denver, with the Broncos moving from a 2-point home dog to a 2.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Denver, with pros backing the Broncos at home. Denver is only receiving 46% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Denver has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. Those looking to follow the sharp Broncos move but also wary of now laying points could instead target Denver on the moneyline at -135. Non-conference favorites are 92-41 (69%) straight up with a 4% ROI over the past two seasons. The Falcons are in a situational fade spot as a dome team that now must go outdoors and deal with the altitude at Mile High. Denver has a big edge on defense, giving up only 17.7 PPG compared to the Falcons allowing 23.6 PPG. Wiseguys have also quietly leaned over, raising the total from 43.5 to 44. The over is receiving 56% of bets but 72% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46)

The undefeated Chiefs (9-0) just squeaked by the Broncos 16-14 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (8-2) have won five straight and just brushed aside the Colts 30-20, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The early opener for this game was Chiefs laying a point on the road. However, since that time we’ve seen a quick and consistent adjustment in favor of the Bills, with Buffalo moving to a 2.5-point home favorite. The Bills are only receiving 44% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. This is arguably one of the top “Pros vs Joes” game of the week, as the public is taking Mahomes as a dog while the wiseguys are fading the trendy dog Chiefs and instead backing the contrarian favorite Bills at home. For those looking to mitigate some risk in a potentially close game, the Bills could be more attractive on the moneyline at -130. When both teams are coming off a win, the favorite is 119-51 (70%) straight up with a 6% ROI since 2022. Josh Allen is 34-7 (83%) straight up with a 10% ROI as a home favorite. The Bills also have the edge offensively, averaging 29 PPG compared to the Chiefs averaging 24 PPG. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 46. The under is receiving 27% of bets but 71% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split.

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