Week 7 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 8. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 46.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers (5-2) just got rolled by the Lions 24-9, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. Similarly, the Saints (1-6) just came up short against the Bears 26-14, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Buccaneers.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -5.5 to -4.5, with some shops even down to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Saints, as the line has moved toward New Orleans despite the public pounding the Buccaneers.
At DraftKings, the Saints are receiving 20% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars. At Circa, New Orleans is taking in 21% of spread bets but 74% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the home dog.
Divisional dogs, like the Saints here, are 318-276 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2019. Divisional dogs receiving at least a full point of line movement in their favor are 63-48 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2019.
Conference home dogs getting 5-points or less are 104-79 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2018.
New Orleans enjoys a one-day rest advantage, as the Saints played on Sunday while the Bucs played on Monday night and are now on a short week.
Those looking to back the sharp contrarian dog but also gain some added protection could consider the Saints in a Wong Teaser. By taking New Orleans up from +4.5 to +10.5, savvy bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 7 and 10.
Green Bay Packers (-3, 45) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Packers (4-1-1) just edged the Cardinals 27-23 but failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (4-2) just came up short against the Bengals 33-31, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites.
This Sunday Night Football line opened with the Packers listed as a 3-point road favorite.
This line has barely budged off the opener and anytime it ticks up Packers -3.5 we’ve seen sharp buyback on the Steelers plus the hook, dropping the line back down to Packers -3. This indicates sneaky sharp liability on Pittsburgh plus the points, especially at +3.5.
At DraftKings, the Steelers are receiving 61% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is taking in 58% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home dog.
Primetime dogs are 15-7 ATS (68%) this season and 156-133 ATS (54%) since 2020. Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 18-14 ATS (56%) this season.
Mike Tomlin has also excelled in this spot. The Steelers head coach is 64-34 ATS (65%) with a 27% ROI as a dog and 60-44 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI off a loss.
The Steelers enjoy a heightened “rest vs tired” advantage as Pittsburgh last played on Thursday while the Packers played on Sunday and are now playing their second straight road game.
Those looking to to back the primetime dog Steelers would be wise to shop around for a hook, as ESPN Bet and Fanatics are both currently offering +3.5 (-120 or -130) while the rest of the market sits at Pittsburgh +3.
Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Bills (4-2) just fell to the Falcons 24-14, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Panthers (4-3) just took down the Jets 13-6, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and 79% of spread bets are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite receiving such heavy support we’ve seen the Bills remain stagnant at -7.5.
Typically, when a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise up from -7.5 to -8 or -8.5. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite the public pounding Buffalo indicates a sharp line freeze on the Panthers plus the points.
In addition, most the market is juicing up Panthers +7.5 (-115 or -120), signaling further liability on the home dog and a possible dip down to +7.
The Panthers are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as Carolina is only receiving 21% of spread bets at DraftKings.
At Circa, the Panthers are taking in 19% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the pros in Vegas taking the home dog plus the hook.
Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 17-13 ATS (57%) this season and 150-120 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI since 2022.
Andy Dalton is starting this game in place of the injured Bryce Young. Dalton is 46-39 ATS (54%) with a 6% ROI in his career as a dog.
Josh Allen is just 17-19 ATS (47%) as a favorite of 7-points or more in his career.
