It’s time for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 12 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 12 NFL best bets and Week 12 NFL predictions.

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders – 1:00 pm ET

Over the last two weeks, Dallas has an EPA per play of -0.446. This offense has been comically bad with Cooper Rush under center, and the Cowboys have now lost three of their last five games by at least three scores. Now, Dallas has to head to Washington for a meeting with a very dangerous football team. And it’s just very hard to imagine the Cowboys keeping this close.

If the Commanders have a weakness, it’s their passing defense. Washington is just 21st in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.099). But this secondary has been getting better and better, and it should be good enough to hold up against a Rush-led passing attack. (Why exactly isn’t Dallas giving Trey Lance a shot at this point?)

Offensively, Jayden Daniels and Co. should be able to lay it on the Cowboys. Dallas’ rushing defense has been the worst in the league this season, so Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler should be able to pick up chunk yardage on the ground. That will then open up the playbook for Daniels to do whatever he wants in the passing game. He could also have a big day as a runner, as the Cowboys are going to sell out to stop the running backs. So, there should be opportunities for Daniels to pull it and take off.

Another thing here is that Washington coach Dan Quinn should be very familiar with everything Dallas wants to do. He was the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys for years, and he’s going to be able to use that to his advantage. Also, Dallas is just 1-11 against the spread when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75% under Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys have lost those games by an average of 11.5 points per game.

Bet: Commanders -10 (-110)

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers – 4:25 pm ET

I thought the 49ers would be a Super Bowl contender this year, but it’s hard to believe in this team right now. San Francisco is coming off a disappointing 20-17 loss as a 6-point home favorite against Seattle, and it’s clear that a sense of urgency isn’t helping the 49ers. So, if you thought that this team would be able to “flip the switch,” that’s not looking like a possibility. San Francisco really could have used that game last week, but that wasn’t enough for the team. And Brock Purdy continues to be unimpressive in big spots. Last week, Purdy threw for just 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and he was unable to torch a Seahawks defense that is definitely beatable in the secondary. The 49ers offensive line wasn’t great either. Purdy didn’t have a lot of time to throw. But I’m not sure any of that is changing this week. Green Bay has a top-10 defense in EPA per play allowed (-0.024), and the team is good against both the run and the pass. Also defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has proven to be a good defensive play caller, and he can be trusted to dial up blitzes and make Purdy uncomfortable with his talented defensive unit.

As far as the offense goes, the Packers should be able to move the ball against the 49ers. Green Bay is eighth in the league in Dropback EPA per play (0.165), and Jordan Love always plays well at home. This is also a 49ers defense that has had its struggles this year. Most of the time, it’s the rushing defense that gives San Francisco problems. But Matt LaFleur does an amazing job of blending the run and the pass, so I’m expecting Love to play off the run and make some big throws in this game. Love had his moments against the 49ers in last year’s NFC Playoffs, and that was a much better San Francisco defense.

Green Bay has also been virtually unbeatable at home under LaFleur. The Packers are 37-12 straight-up at home, and they’re 31-9 SU as home favorites.

Bet: Packers ML (-125)

Additional Week 11 Best Bets

7PT TEASER: Texans -0.5 vs. Cowboys (Week 11) & Cardinals +8.5 vs. Seahawks in Week 12 (-150 – 1.5 units)
Browns +3.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Browns ML (+166 – 0.5 units) vs. Steelers – Click here for my Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Night Football Preview!
Rams +3 (-115) vs. Eagles – Click here for my Eagles vs. Rams Sunday Night Football Preview!
Ravens ML (-142 – 2 units) vs. Chargers

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2024 Record: 38-36 (-0.84 units)

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