It’s time for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 3 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 3 NFL best bets and Week 3 NFL predictions. Last year was another profitable one for me, and I’m hoping to keep things rolling in 2024.

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2024 NFL Best Bets Record: 5-6 (-0.42 units)

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – 1:00 pm ET

I’m a little nervous about overreacting to two weeks and having it completely blow up in my face, but how can you not like the Saints here? A lot of people are talking about new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak guiding New Orleans to 91 points through two games, and it’s obviously insanely impressive that the Saints are currently first in the NFL in EPA per play. However, New Orleans also happens to be second in the league in EPA per play allowed, and the team just shut the water off for a very good Dallas offense — and did so in Jerry World. This team is clicking on both sides of the ball, gets to play in front of a fired-up fanbase and also happens to be facing the Eagles at the right time. So, I’m laying 2.5 and making this my biggest play of the day.

It’s hard to put into words just how good of a matchup this is for New Orleans on paper. Alvin Kamara, who is rushing for 5.7 yards per carry this season, will be going to work against a Philadelphia team that is last in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed. The Saints should really be able to run all over this defense, and that will set Derek Carr up for all sorts of success in the passing game. If Vic Fangio has to throw extra bodies in the box, New Orleans will answer with big plays in the passing game. The Saints only ran play-action on 14.4% of their plays last season, which was odd considering Carr is an excellent play-action quarterback. Well, Kubiak clearly recognizes New Orleans’ mistakes from a year ago, as his offense is running play-action on 52.3% of its plays. That’s the highest mark in the league. Eventually defenses will catch up to this change in scheme, but I’m not sure Philadelphia will be up for the challenge. The team isn’t getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and can’t stop the run. The secondary was also exposed a bit late in a loss to the Falcons on Monday night.

I also think the Saints defense will be up for the challenge here. Philadelphia is still missing star wideout A.J. Brown, and that’s a loss that will be felt against this New Orleans group. The Saints also happen to have an opportunistic secondary. After finishing tied for second in the league in interceptions (18) in 2023, the Saints are tied for second with four through two games in 2024. That’s especially important considering Jalen Hurts hasn’t put last year’s turnover problems behind him. He threw 15 interceptions in 2023 and is already at three this year. His one against Atlanta last week was costly, as Philadelphia only needed 30 or so yards to set up a game-winning field goal opportunity on the final drive of the game.

For what it’s worth, the Eagles are also 1-8 against the spread when coming off a loss since the start of 2022. They’re also just 5-11 straight-up and 6-10 ATS as underdogs under Nick Sirianni.

Bet: Saints -2.5 (-115 – 2 units)

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings – 1:00 pm ET
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1:00 pm ET

The Justin Jefferson quad injury is a little unsettling, but it seems like the superstar is going to give it a go in this game. And the reality is that I like Minnesota as a teaser anchor regardless of whether or not he’s out there. I wasn’t sure how Sam Darnold would look under center, but the early returns have been insanely promising. Darnold has thrown for 476 yards and four touchdowns this season, and he’s fourth in the NFL in Completion Percentage Over Expected. Kevin O’Connell has always been one of the best offensive coaches in the league, and he has built successful offensive game plans with far worse quarterbacks than Darnold. So, we really shouldn’t be all that surprised that this is working, especially considering talent has never been an issue for Darnold.

The Vikings probably won’t look explosive in this game, as the Texans are eighth in the league in EPA per play allowed this season. However, Houston benefitted from a matchup with Chicago last week. The Bears simply couldn’t protect rookie Caleb Williams, and the Texans pass rush was able to tee off on him. Houston’s secondary also took advantage of facing a young quarterback that was under duress all game. I don’t expect the Texans to look quite as good at any level of the defense here. Minnesota’s offensive line has held up well through two weeks, with center Garrett Bradbury playing a big role in that. As long as the Vikings are protecting, I don’t see them losing this game by more than a touchdown. Sure, C.J. Stroud and the Texans are explosive offensively, but the Vikings have playmakers all throughout their defensive depth chart. And defensive coordinator Brian Flores knows how to get the most out of them. Minnesota is fourth in the league in EPA per play allowed this year, and the team just shut down Kyle Shanahan’s impressive San Francisco offense.

For the second leg of this teaser, I’m rolling with the Buccaneers to beat the Broncos at home. Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t been perfect early in the season, but I trust Todd Bowles to put together a good plan against Bo Nix. The rookie has been a disaster this year, as he hasn’t thrown for a single touchdown and has already thrown four picks. Nix is also just 25th in the league in CPOE. That said, Tampa Bay is going to try and bring some pressure against Nix, and Bowles will also mix up his looks in the secondary. Sean Payton might be a world-class offensive coach, but I don’t see him overcoming this matchup with Nix under center. The Bucs have also been awesome offensively this season, with Baker Mayfield absolutely thriving as the new face of the franchise. Tampa Bay is fifth in the league in EPA per play and should have no trouble moving the ball against a mediocre Denver defense. All of that makes it hard to imagine the Broncos beating the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium.

6-POINT TEASER: Vikings +8.5 & Buccaneers -0.5 (-120 – 1.5 units)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals – 4:25 pm ET

The Cardinals have gone Over in both of their games this season. In Week 1, Arizona and Buffalo combined to score 62 points in an absolute shootout. The next week, Arizona did the heavy lifting in a 41-10 win over Los Angeles. The Cardinals are now third in the NFL in EPA per play, and Kyler Murray is playing some of the best football of his career. He also got on the same page as rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., as the two linked up for two touchdowns and several deep passes in Week 2. Now it’s a little hard not to like Arizona’s chances of putting up some points against a Detroit defense that has looked very beatable this season — especially through the air.

I also like the Lions’ chances of turning in a good offensive effort. Detroit is just 17th in the league in EPA per play this season, but the team was eighth in 2023 and hasn’t undergone any significant changes. So, it’s only a matter of time before the Lions get a little hot, and this is a good matchup for them to do so.

Realistically, there’s just not much preventing this from turning into a back-and-forth offensive showcase. Neither one of these teams will be looking to exclusively play the ball-control game. Both will take their shots and things will open up as they find success. These are two good offenses and below-average defenses. I’m keeping it simple and rooting for points.

Bet: Over 51.5 (-109)

Additional Best Bets

Ravens ML (-115 – 2 units) vs. Cowboys

Chiefs -3 (-109 – 1.5 units) vs. Falcons – Click here for my Sunday Night Football analysis!

Commanders +7.5 (-115) vs. Bengals – Click here for my Monday Night Football analysis!

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