Week 8 NFL best bets and predictions
Each week, I’ll be looking through Sunday’s NFL games to try and feed my readers three winners. That continues with the three best bets I have for the Week 8 slate. Keep reading to find out what I have and make sure you also check out what my talented VSiN colleagues are playing. Those plays, along with all of our NFL content for the week, are available at our Week 8 NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page.
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
I’m fully aware that the Packers are the sharp side in this game. The entire betting public will be on the Vikings here, as they’re fresh off a win over the San Francisco 49ers and are facing a team that lost to the Broncos last week and has now lost three in a row. And I generally do like to let betting splits guide me quite a bit. However, I view this as such a big mismatch that I simply have to take Minnesota.
As of right now, the Packers are down at 27th in the league in Defensive DVOA, meanwhile the Vikings are up at 15th in the NFL. On top of that, Minnesota is 14th in the league in both Offensive DVOA and EPA per play. Green Bay is in a similar ballpark, but not quite as good. With that in mind, the Vikings are the better team on both sides of the ball. And the most important thing to me is that Minnesota is playing much better defensively in recent weeks. That makes it hard for me to see a scenario in which Jordan Love, who is ranked 35th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) out of 40 quarterbacks, finds a way to move the ball efficiently in the passing game.
As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins has been playing at a pretty high level all year — even if the first instinct of the general public is to bash him. He’s ranked seventh amongst all quarterbacks in PFF’s player grades, so I expect him to find plenty of success against a Packers defense that is lousy against the pass. I also think Minnesota’s running game can get going here, which hasn’t been easy for the team this season. But the Packers have been weak against the ground attack, so perhaps the Vikings can get some push at the line of scrimmage.
The Vikings are also 6-4 straight-up on the road under head coach Kevin O’Connell. And considering this is essentially a pick’em game, winning outright should be all that matters.
Bet: Vikings -1.5 (-110 – Play to -2.5)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots and Dolphins had a total of 46.5 when they met in New England on September 17. That game ended in a 24-17 win for Miami and went Under the total. I’m expecting something of a similar result here — especially if it does end up being rainy and windy, which seems like a possibility.
Last week, the Pats earned an upset victory over the Buffalo Bills. New England did that because Mac Jones surprisingly went out and threw for 272 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. The offense was absolutely humming in that one, but Bill Belichick knows that he can’t expect that every week. And with the Patriots facing a Dolphins offense that is first in the league in pretty much every statistical category — traditional or advanced — the goal of this game will be to establish the run and not get beat over the top. That was how New England kept things respectable when these two met at Gillette Stadium, and that’s how it will need to happen here.
Of course, it is somewhat concerning that the Patriots will be without rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (likely out for the season) in this game, as he did really well in his matchup with Tyreek Hill last time out. But New England has always been a team that can be relied on to figure things out, and I’d expect the Pats to be just fine here. They’ll go with a bend-don’t-break approach and try to avoid getting beat over the top at all costs. And it will help them that the Dolphins have some injuries messing with their backfield. If they can’t get the run game going here, life won’t be as easy on Tua Tagovailoa. It also doesn’t hurt that the Pats have seen film on teams like Buffalo and the Philadelphia Eagles slowing down the Dolphins over the last four weeks.
I just don’t think we’ll see the Dolphins go out and light up the scoreboard here. I think this will be a tight matchup between two divisional rivals, as we have seen in most of the recent matchups between these two. The Under is 5-2 in the seven games these teams have played against one another since 2020.
Bet: Under 46.5 (-110 – Play to 45.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Since the start of last season, the Chiefs are 1-8 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 or more points. They’re also 0-6 ATS after a win by 14 or more points in that same span. So, this is not a team that has been able to back up big victories. With that in mind, I think it’s worth taking the points with the Broncos here.
Denver has actually played Kansas City well since the start of last season, as the Broncos are 2-1 ATS in the three games they have played. Even that 19-8 loss to the Chiefs on October 12 was a competitive game, and it was one in which the Denver defense did a good job of keeping Kansas City in check. With this thing now flipping back to Denver, I’d expect another strong effort from that unit. Denver just needs to do a good job of locating Travis Kelce in this game, as the Los Angeles Chargers seemingly ignored him last week. While Rashee Rice has played well for the Chiefs in recent weeks, the talent at the wide receiver position still isn’t quite there for them. That means that Denver can find itself in solid shape if Patrick Mahomes isn’t able to just consistently find his favorite weapon. And the fact that this should be a cold, snowy game will already make it harder on Mahomes to throw the ball.
I also do think the Broncos offense can be trusted in this spot. The results haven’t been consistent this season, but they are actually 15th in Offensive DVOA this season. They need to do a better job of finishing drives, but they’re doing a decent job of moving the ball. And they’re doing it with both the run and the pass. That said, I think they’ll be able to pick up some chunks on the ground in the snow here.
Bet: Broncos +7.5 (-120 – Play to +7)
Best Bets Record: 15-9 (+5.50 units)
Added Plays
Bears-Chargers Over 46.5 – Read my SNF betting preview for the reasoning
Raiders +8.5 vs. Lions – Read my MNF betting preview for the reasons
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Steve Makinen’s NFL Team Power Ratings
