It’s time for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 1 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 1 NFL best bets and Week 1 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans – 1:00 pm ET
I’m keeping things relatively light with my spreads/totals for Week 1. I have some stuff for the bigger games, but the Titans are the only team I love for the Sunday afternoon slate.
The Jets are in a solid position when it comes to young talent, but why should we believe in this coaching staff? Despite the fact that Aaron Glenn has a defensive background, the Jets were 30th in the NFL in EPA/play allowed (0.147) last season. Stud rookie David Bailey should bring some much-needed juice, but the unit still looks rather weak. Also, Geno Smith, the new (and old) starting quarterback in New York, had a Pro Football Focus grade of 60.9 last season. That wasn’t even a top-30 mark. With that in mind, I’ll take the home team with bright coaches on both sides of the ball. Robert Saleh is the new head coach in Tennessee, and he should do a good job with the defense. I also love Brian Daboll as an offensive coordinator, and I like him to bring things together for a young Titans offense.
There’s also an interesting betting system for this one: Since 2017, teams that were outgained by at least 0.75 yards per play the previous year are 9-42 on the moneyline in Weeks 1-3 of the following season.
I’m also taking Smith to throw an interception in this game. Smith threw at least one pick in 11 of the 15 games he played last season, and our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.7 interceptions here. You can get this at -103 odds, but OptaAI says the odds should be -445. That’s a massive edge to the Over. An improved defense should be able to take advantage of a mistake-prone quarterback.
Bet: Titans ML (-120) & Geno Smith To Throw Interception (-103)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals – 1:00 pm ET
The Buccaneers added Kenneth Gainwell this offseason, so there’s more competition for Bucky Irving in the backfield. However, with the Bengals having finished with a Rush EPA/play allowed of 0.034 last season, Tampa Bay would be wise to test Cincinnati between the tackles. I know the Bengals have invested quite a bit into fixing their defense, but the Buccaneers will at least look to get their best ball carrier the rock. Well, Irving is their best ball carrier. Irving is listed as the RB1 on the Tampa Bay depth chart, and he’s ready to put a strange 2025 season behind him. This is also another play that is backed by OptaAI. Our projections page calls for Irving to finish with 15.53 carries.
Bet: Bucky Irving Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-103)
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 pm ET
Facing the Ravens can be a bit scary, but Baltimore was 21st in the NFL in Dropback EPA/play allowed (0.101) last year. Sure, Jesse Minter’s presence should drastically improve the secondary — and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver also happens to have an excellent reputation. However, we haven’t yet seen what these defensive backs look like, making it hard to stay away from Alex Pierce with a very low receiving yard total.
Pierce is the unquestioned No. 1 wideout in this offense now that Michael Pittman Jr. is playing for the Steelers. Pierce also happened to average 66.9 receiving yards per game last season, and that was with some more competition for targets.
With his ability to make big plays down the field, I’ll take my chances with him reaching 45 yards. There’s a slight chance he’ll miss this game, but the number is too low. Our OptaAI projections have Pierce finishing with 72.60 yards.
Bet: Alec Pierce Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Additional Week 1 Best Bets
Patriots +3.5 (-110 – 1.5 units), Patriots ML (+165 – 0.5 units), Drake Maye Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-117) – Check out my Patriots-Seahawks betting preview!
49ers +4 (-110) vs. Rams – Check out my 49ers-Rams betting preview!
PARLAY: Panthers Alt +10.5 vs. Bears & Lions ML vs. Saints (-133)
I will likely have more listed in this section soon. I sometimes add picks throughout the weekend, plus I’ll surely have more once I dive into Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
