🏈 Can the Dogs Do It One More Time?
Underdogs have been covering machines in Week 4.
They’re 9-4-2 ATS with six outright wins heading into Monday Night Football.
The market is indicating the Falcons (+2) against the Saints have a chance to make it 10 tonight (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Atlanta opened +3 at Circa and was down to +2 Sunday night, with 75% of the handle on the Falcons.
Steve Makinen isn’t convinced the line has caught up to what we saw from Atlanta last week:
“I’m not sure anyone who watched last Thursday’s game, where Atlanta went into Green Bay and won 35-14, didn’t look at the Falcons as a completely different team with QB Michael Penix under center. Funny though, I don’t think this week’s line reflects the ‘new’ Atlanta team as much as it should.”
Zach Cohen acknowledges the boost Penix has provided, but he’s focused on the other side of the ball.
“Atlanta’s rushing defense is big in this specific matchup. The Saints have been efficient on the ground to start this year, but they’re up against a tough defensive front. They’re also going to have to attack it without Travis Etienne, who is their RB1.”
>> Zach’s Falcons-Saints Best Bet
>> Steve’s MNF Analysis and Play
>> See the Latest Circa Betting Splits
🧰 Monday Night Football Tools
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
⚡ BOLT Plays — Posted by 1 p.m. PT →
🏈 NFL Matchups & Advanced Stats →
📊 DraftKings & Circa Betting Splits →
🎯 VSiN Pro Picks (15 plays so far) →
🔥 Joe Does It Again
We highlighted VSiN Community member Joe Freda’s Giants +2.5 play Sunday.
He didn’t need the points. The Giants won 36-24 outright.
That’s 2-0 for Joe’s weekend after his Arizona call Saturday.
🤕 More QBs Fall in Week 4
Commanders: Backup QB Marcus Mariota suffered a right knee injury early in a 30-13 loss to the Colts in London. Washington hopes starter Jayden Daniels will return for its Week 5 matchup against the Giants (+3).
Ravens: Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury in the first half of a 24-18 win over the Titans. There was no word Sunday night on the severity.
Sunday’s results and injuries have already influenced the Week 5 lines.
>> Adam Burke Breaks Down the Early Week 5 Lines
💰 Contest Update: No Survivor Mayhem
☠️ The Big Favorites Survive
The Vikings (43.4%) and Ravens (38.9%) both came through for their backers in Circa Survivor.
With 303 entries eliminated so far in Week 4, 5,965 are headed to Week 5 — with 16 pending on the Saints tonight and seven on the Falcons.
💵 Grandissimo Still at 24
All 24 live entries survived Week 4.
>> See the Circa Grandissimo Hub
📋 Circa Million Consensus: 9-10-1
The five most-selected Week 4 sides went 3-2. Rams -3, 49ers -2.5 and Bears -3 won; Bills -6.5 and Bengals -2.5 lost. The consensus is now 9-10-1 for the season.
🏆 Ed Salmons Leads the Invitational
Former Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons leads at 18-10, but Jeff Petch can move into a tie if the Falcons +2 cover tonight.
>> Check the Invitational Standings
👥 Average Joe Leader: 23-4-1
DaSoxFan24 went 6-1 in Week 4 to take the EdgeBoost Average Joe lead at 23-4-1.
There’s a little extra urgency: The leader after five weeks gets a trip to Las Vegas and a two-night stay at Circa.
>> Check the Average Joe Leaderboard
🛒 Want In On a Circa Contest?
The Survivor Sweat Marketplace has reopened with more than 100 Circa contest entries for sale — and more to come.
If you want to get into one of the Circa contests today, check out the Official Contest Entry Marketplace of Circa Sports.
>> Browse the Survivor Sweat Marketplace
⚾ It’s the AL’s Turn
The Braves and Brewers bought themselves something valuable Sunday: Time.
Atlanta’s win gives its bullpen today’s off day before a fully rested Chris Sale starts Game 3. Milwaukee’s comeback gives the Brewers a 2-0 lead and a day to reset its high-leverage arms after another rough outing from Abner Uribe.
Today, both AL series are back in action.
5 p.m. ET — White Sox (+138) at Guardians (-148)
Anthony Kay vs. Gavin Williams | Total: 6.5
Adam Burke thinks Chicago has underdog value again at +138. Starting Kay gives the White Sox a chance to get through Cleveland’s lineup once before turning to Sean Burke, potentially forcing the Guardians to empty their bench to get the platoon matchups they want.
Adam also has concerns about Williams’ home-run susceptibility and pitch efficiency, particularly if Cleveland has to get into its middle relievers.
8 p.m. ET — Yankees (-122) at Rays (+112)
Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta | Total: 6.5
Adam’s biggest concern with Peralta is the Yankees’ left-handed bats. He allowed 17 home runs and a .439 slugging percentage to lefties this season.
But there’s an important counterpoint: Over his final six regular-season starts, lefties hit just .164/.253/.224 against him as Peralta leaned heavily on his changeup.
>> Adam Burke’s Monday MLB Best Bets (later this morning)
🏈 Adam Already Found 7 Week 6 Discrepancies
Adam Burke has updated his college football power ratings and found seven Week 6 games where his projected line differs enough from the market to indicate potential value.
>> See Adam’s 7 Week 6 Line Discrepancies
He’s also tracking the early betting market to identify the Week 6 line moves worth paying attention to.
>> See the Week 6 Line Moves Adam Is Watching
📈 Before You Go: Track the Market with DonBest
Want to see the line moves as they happen? The DonBest Screen provides real-time odds and steam alerts throughout the day.
VSiN readers can start with a 7-day free trial and use promo code VSIN10 for 10% off their initial subscription.
