NFL favorites are coming off their best week of the season, going 10-5 ATS in Week 13. However, dogs still hold the edge overall with a 105-86 ATS (55%) record. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 69-45 ATS (61%) and divisional dogs are 36-23 ATS (61%). Meanwhile, unders are 109-85 (56%) this season, led by divisional unders 36-22 (62%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for NFL Week 14…
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)
The Vikings (10-2) have won two straight games and just beat the Jets 27-22, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Lions have won four of their last five games and just beat crushed the Jaguars 40-14, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover by the Vikings due to their far superior won-loss record. However, despite Minnesota receiving 73% of bets, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Lions -2.5. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on the Lions, with pros hammering Detroit at home. This line movement is almost a carbon copy of the "dog to favorite" line movement on the Raiders against the Chargers last week. Dan Campbell is 8-4 ATS this season and 19-10 ATS (67%) in his career as the Lions’ head coach.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 37)
The Bucs (6-6) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Saints 17-16 but failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (8-4) have won five straight games and just beat the Dolphins 33-17, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with San Francisco listed as high as a 6.5-point home favorite. Currently 59% of bets are laying the points with the 49ers. However, we’ve seen this line tumble from 49ers -6.5 all the way down to -3.5. This signals pro money grabbing the points with Tom Brady, triggering big steam toward the road dog. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week, like Tampa Bay here, are 43-33 ATS (57%) this season. The Bucs also have buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (3-8-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (7-5). Pros have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 41 to 37. The Bucs are 10-2 to the under this season.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 37)
The Ravens (8-4) are 5-1 over their last six games and just edged the Broncos 10-9 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Steelers (5-7) are 3-1 over their last four games and just held off the Falcons 19-16, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line initially opened with Baltimore listed as roughly a 4-point road favorite. But with Lamar Jackson set to miss this game due to injury, we quickly saw the line move to Steelers -3 at home. That’s when an overload of sharp buyback hit the Ravens +3, causing the line to fall back down to Steelers -2.5. John Harbaugh is 2-0 ATS as a dog this season and 42-29 ATS (59%) in his career. Baltimore is also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. We could also be looking at a low scoring game in this one, as the total has been steamed down from 41 to 37. The forecast calls for mid 30s, 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain. The Ravens are 8-4 to the under. The Steelers are 7-5 to the under.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 41.5)
The Jaguars (4-8) have rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just got crushed by the Lions 40-14, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Titans (7-5) have lost two straight and just got rolled by the Eagles 35-10, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public sees an easy bounce back win and cover with the Titans at home. However, despite receiving 81% of bets, Tennessee has fallen from -4 to -3.5. This signals some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Jaguars. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20+ points are 10-4 ATS (71%) this season and 61% ATS since 2018. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 22-9 (71%) this season.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 44)
The Panthers (4-8) are coming off a bye having won two of their last three games, most recently beating the Broncos 23-10 and winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (7-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 27-23 win over the Rams but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Currently 81% of bets are laying the points with the Seahawks at home. However, despite this lopsided betting we’ve seen Seattle tumble from -6.5 to -3.5. This indicates wiseguy action on the Panthers plus the points, who have a rest advantage coming off a bye. Dogs +3.5 or more in a game in which both teams missed the playoffs last season are 23-10 ATS (70%) this season.
