One of the major questions heading into the 2024 NFL season centered on field position. In hopes of reducing injury and creating more returns, the league adopted new kickoff rules prior to the season. As a cliff notes version of what changed, here were the most noteworthy adjustments:
- No one except the kicker and returner can move until the ball is fielded
- The kicking team lined up on the receiving team’s 40-yard line, while the kicker still boots it from his own 35-yard line
- The receiving team lined up between their own 30 and 35-yard line
- Any kick that landed in front of the 20-yard line is considered “out of bounds” (ball placed at the 40)
- Touchbacks were placed at the 30-yard line, a five-yard difference from a 2016 rule change
The rule changes largely worked. Concussions were down significantly and the touchback percentage (TB%) went from 73% to 64.3%. The extra five yards mattered a lot to special teams coaches and the closer proximity of the players on the kicking team meant that placekickers found the risk of a return more palatable, especially relative to the “penalty” for a touchback.
Yards per return went up from 23.0 to 27.6. Average starting field position went from the 28.8-yard line to the 30.1-yard line. Given that the league-wide TO% dropped from 11.6% to 10.7%, kickoffs had a lot to do with the change.
Teams scored on 38% of their possessions compared to 35.5% in 2023 and 36.4% in 2022. Points per drive went from 1.88 to 2.07. There were 85 more touchdowns scored in 2024 compared to 2023 and 26 more made field goals on 55 more field goal attempts. There were 622 more points scored during the 2024 season than the 2023 season.
For the 2025 season, the “punishment” for a touchback was placement of the ball at the 35-yard line. There were also some changes to where the players on both the kicking and receiving teams lined up. While the 2024 changes were objectively more altering to the game, the additional five yards for a touchback really changed the philosophies around kickoffs and strategy.
There is no better example of this than the TB% from the 2025 season. We saw just shy of a 9% drop from 2023 to 2024 in touchback rate, but with the ball moving out from the 30 to the 35 after booting it into the end zone, only 20.7% of kickoffs were touchbacks. The Rams actually didn’t seem to worry much about the field position element, leading the league with a 57.3% TB% (nearly 20% higher than any other team), whereas the Colts (5.9%) and Steelers (8.0%) took a dramatically different approach. The Colts had an 83% TB% in 2024 that ranked second in the league, so you can see where their analytics department came into play with the additional five yards in mind.
The average starting field position only went up from the 30.1-yard line to the 30.7-yard line, obviously a much smaller number than the five yards on a touchback, so teams actively worked on kicking the ball off to the point of a return and then covering the return more effectively. The league’s yards per kick return fell from 27.6 to 25.9. Teams got a sample size of data and adjusted accordingly.
Points per drive did increase from 2.07 to 2.11, but the total number of points only increased by 55. After a 622-point increase with the new kickoff rules from 2023 to 2024, it was clear last season that everybody had settled in. Scoring did increase slightly on a per-possession basis with a 38.8% Sc% compared to last season’s 38%, but there were only eight more touchdowns and actually six fewer field goals year over year.
The average Over/Under was 43.1 in 2023, 44.6 in 2024, and 44.8 in 2025.
For 2026, the kickoff-related rule changes are likely to have a very small impact, if any, on scoring and field position. Teams can try an onside kick at any time, but the element of surprise is still gone because they have to be announced ahead of time. There are also some minor changes to the way that teams line up. Lastly, and one that could be the most impactful, is that kickoffs from the 50-yard line (following an accepted 15-yard penalty on the receiving team) now go to the 40-yard line if the ball is intentionally kicked out of bounds. It used to be the 25-yard line and was viewed as a bit of a loophole to the new rules. That loophole is now closed.
Only 13 teams had a TB% over 20% during the 2025 season and only three teams were north of 30%. Eight teams had a TB% under 15%. It will be interesting to see how this philosophy continues to evolve, but after being able to get some betting value with the totals market in 2024, it looks like things have stabilized now.
