It is fascinating how different the draft classes are from year to year. Back in 2024, there were 14 offensive players taken before the first defensive player, including six quarterbacks and seven wide receivers. In 2025, there were 17 offensive players and 15 defensive players, but only three QBs and two WRs. Not surprisingly, one of those five players won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Those who like to bet some long shots in awards markets have been sorely disappointed in this one. With Tetairoa McMillan’s win in 2025, eight of the last 10 OROY winners have been top-10 picks. McMillan’s only real competition in that respect was Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty after Travis Hunter suffered a season-ending injury. Two of the first 10 offensive picks were tight ends and four were offensive linemen – two positions that have never won this award. That includes five such players in the top 10.
Is the 2026 Offensive Rookie of the Year market set up differently and in a way that could buck some trends? For the current top-10 trend to continue, the options are Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love, and Jordyn Tyson. Given how much of a long shot Ty Simpson of the Rams will be because he’s not even going to start barring injury, the next eligible player based on the recent history of the award is Makai Lemon, who was picked 20th.
Alvin Kamara was the last non-top-10 pick to win OROY and also the last non-first-round pick back in 2017. Love (or fellow Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price, 32nd overall) is hoping to become the first RB since Saquon Barkley in 2018 to win.
Wide receivers now have three wins in the last five seasons after going from 2014 (Odell Beckham Jr.) to 2021 (Ja’Marr Chase) without winning. Prior to Beckham, you have to go back to Percy Harvin in 2009.
Mendoza is a reasonable choice, given that the Raiders have an offensive-minded head coach, a solid skill group, and the last four QBs to win have all been top-six picks, with Kyler Murray as the first overall pick in 2019 as the award winner. Plus, opportunity is a huge deal here, as Mendoza and the Raiders are likely to trail a lot, giving him the chance to rack up numbers, as long as he starts over Kirk Cousins.
Outliers are definitely a possibility, albeit a small one. Let’s look at the last 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners and attempt to get a baseline for the stats and the circumstances that are required to be in the running.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners
Players: Tetairoa McMillan, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Dak Prescott
By Position: 5 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR
By Draft Position (Round.Pick): 1.8; 1.2; 1.2; 1.10; 1.5; 1.6; 1.1; 1.2; 3.67 (Kamara); 4.135 (Prescott)
Eight of the last 10 have been first-round picks and all eight were top-10 picks. Opportunity matters as much as anything. First-round picks on bad teams, almost regardless of position, are a lock to start. Keep in mind, if we get another first-round pick this year as Prescott drops off, that will be nine of 10 and maybe all nine as top-10 picks. That should define your wagering strategy.
First-place votes (L5 years): 41 (McMillan); 48 (Daniels); 48 (Stroud); 18 (Wilson, runner-up Kenneth Walker III had 19); 42 (Chase)
Nobody has been unanimous since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 with all 48 votes.
Also, team success isn’t exactly a prerequisite. The Panthers, Texans, Bengals, Saints, and Cowboys were all division winners within the last 10 years, but the Commanders, Jets, Chargers, Cardinals, and Giants were not. Of those five non-division winners, the Commanders are the only team to make the playoffs. Carolina won the NFC South at 8-9 last season.
Stats of the Winners
Tetairoa McMillan (2025)
McMillan was targeted 122 times and caught 70 balls for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. He was one of 18 WRs with 1,000+ yards and the only rookie of the group, as Emeka Egbuka was next with 938 yards. Tyler Shough (5), TreVeyon Henderson (1), Jaxson Dart (1), and OG Grey Zabel (2) were the other first-place vote-getters. Note that McMillan joined Wilson and Chase as WRs to win this award and the common thread is that all of them had at least 1,000 receiving yards, likely a simple benchmark for any WR hoping to be in contention this year.
Jayden Daniels (2024)
For the second straight year, the No. 2 overall pick and second QB off the board won this award. Daniels had 4,459 total yards and 31 total touchdowns in leading the Commanders to the playoffs. Daniels got 48 of the 49 first-place votes, as Brock Bowers got the other one.
C.J. Stroud (2023)
Stroud started 15 of the team’s 17 games and had 499 pass attempts with a 23/5 TD/INT ratio. He led the league in INT% and passing yards per game with 273.9. Puka Nacua got the other two first-place votes.
Garrett Wilson (2022)
Wilson played in all 17 games and had 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. Former Ohio State teammate Chris Olave was second among rookies with 1,042 receiving yards and finished fourth in the OROY voting. Wilson was 15th in receiving yards overall.
Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
The Joe Burrow connection definitely helped Chase here, as the rookie had 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. It was arguably the best rookie season in this generation for a wide receiver. He was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards and third in touchdowns, which was definitely worthy of breaking the WR drought.
Justin Herbert (2020)
Herbert had a 31/10 TD/INT ratio and started 15 games in his rookie season. He threw for just under 290 yards per game and 4,336 yards total. Only Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Josh Allen threw for more yards and Herbert also finished 10th in TD passes.
Kyler Murray (2019)
Murray threw for 3,722 and ran for another 544 in his rookie year. In total, he accounted for 24 total touchdowns across 16 starts. He was the most-sacked QB in the NFL, but still did enough to garner 26.5 of the 50 first-place votes. That was a weak crop for rookies, but Murray was certainly the most impactful.
Saquon Barkley (2018)
Barkley was a Pro Bowler in his rookie year and led the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 2,028. He ran for 1,307 and added 721 more on 91 receptions and 121 targets. He was second to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards and edged him by 27 yards in total yardage. He actually ranked 13th in receptions and only Christian McCaffrey had more among running backs.
Alvin Kamara (2017)
Kamara ran for an insane 6.1 yards per carry during his rookie year and won the award, despite only starting three games. He played all 16 and, much like Barkley a year later, racked up a ton of yardage through the air. His 826 receiving yards are still a career-high. He actually only rushed for 728 yards, but had 13 total touchdowns. Despite the eye-popping all-purpose yardage total, he had 28 first-place votes to 21 for Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 1,327 yards and actually outgained Kamara from scrimmage.
Dak Prescott (2016)
Prescott’s relative lack of pedigree was a huge deal, as the fourth-round pick became the latest player drafted since Denver’s Mike Anderson in 2000 (sixth-rounder) to win OROY. To this day, Dak and Dennis Shaw (1970) are the only non-first-round QBs to win. He started all 16 games and had a 23/4 TD/INT ratio and actually finished sixth in MVP voting.
Teammate Ezekiel Elliott was the only other vote-getter and, in fact, got 21.5 of the 50 first-place votes.
