Matt Youmans – NFL Week 13 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 13 best bets.
Buffalo (-3) at Pittsburgh
At the peak of his career in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers was often the NFL’s most valuable quarterback in terms of his worth to a point spread. That has not been the case for the past few years, and Rodgers’ return from injury this week seems to mean little to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 41-year-old is recovering from a left wrist fracture and he wasn’t playing at a high level prior to the setback.
But all things considered, the injury report for the Steelers is more positive than it is for the Bills heading into the teams’ meeting Sunday in Pittsburgh. The opening line of Buffalo -3.5 has dipped a half-point based on a handful of factors.
The Steelers (6-5) will be playing with receiver DK Metcalf and linebacker Alex Highsmith, two of their most important players. The Bills (7-4) will be without starting offensive tackles Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins. Brown and Dawkins were injured during Buffalo’s loss at Houston last week, when quarterback Josh Allen was sacked eight times.
The Bills are 2-3 on the road, averaging only 15.3 points in the losses. Allen has five touchdown passes and five interceptions in the five road games, numbers which pale in comparison to his success at home (13 touchdown passes, four interceptions).
The Steelers are nothing special on either side of the ball, but their defense is tied for second in the league in takeaways with 20. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph played at least as well as Rodgers over the past six quarters during Rodgers’ absence. Pittsburgh should be a live home underdog, but that’s not necessarily due to Rodgers’ return. The Bills’ offensive line is a mess and Allen has been struggling to lead scoring drives on the road.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
Houston at Indianapolis (-3.5)
The AFC South is still a race, but Houston (6-5) must beat Indianapolis (8-3) to make it interesting down the stretch. The Texans went 3-0 without injured quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is set to return for this game. Houston is getting hot due to its No. 2-ranked scoring defense (16.5 ppg) that is dropping quarterbacks and stopping the run. Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has a leg injury and is regressing, and the Texans have what it takes to control league rushing leader Jonathan Taylor, who was held to 58 yards by a lesser Kansas City defense.
Best Bet: Houston Texans +3.5
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
The Raiders hit somewhere near rock bottom in a blowout home loss to the Browns, a humiliation that triggered a change on Pete Carroll’s coaching staff. According to multiple sources, there was a rift between Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, a poor play caller who was scheming the NFL’s worst scoring offense (15.0 ppg). Quarterbacks coach Greg Olson is taking over Kelly’s job, so that could be a boost. On the other side, the Chargers have been decimated by injuries to offensive linemen and running backs, putting too much on the shoulders of quarterback Justin Herbert. In a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville before a bye, Herbert passed for 81 yards as the L.A. offense totaled 135 yards and eight first downs. While the Raiders are rotten and unlikely to win, the Chargers are too crippled on offense to trust to cover a big number, and BetMGM is offering +10, so I’ll take double digits.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +10
New York Giants at New England (-7)
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has cleared concussion protocol and will start for the Giants on Monday night. Dart was injured during a Nov. 9 game at Chicago and the team blew the game after he exited. The Giants hung tough in consecutive one-score losses to the Lions, Packers and Bears, who are suddenly turning the clock back to 1985. In Dart’s absence, Jameis Winston passed for 366 yards as the offense totaled 517 yards in an overtime loss at Detroit. The Giants can win or cover with Dart or Winston. The Patriots are riding a nine-game winning streak (7-2 ATS). However, left tackle Will Campbell is out with an injury and the line is not in great shape in front of quarterback Drake Maye, who will be under pressure from the Giants’ aggressive defensive front. DraftKings has the best number on the road ‘dog.
Best Bet: New York Giants +7.5 (-115)
For more NFL Week 13 best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
