Michael Lombardi: A look ahead to NFL Week 1

A look ahead to NFL Week 1:

The NFL is back, and boy, are we all happy.  If last night’s toe-tapper was any indication of what to expect for Week 1, we are in for a great weekend. There was much to take away from the Chiefs win for both sides: the concerns about the Ravens defensive changes, their offensive line featuring two new players, and whether Justin Tucker’s 1-5 success rate from 50 yards last year would carry over to this season.  All those concerns proved to be justified and, more importantly, costly. 

Even though the Ravens were a smaller shoe size away from running their best two-point play for the win, the Chiefs were in control of the game. Kansas City only ran 50 plays. They averaged 7.1 yards per play, and had they been better in the red zone, the game would not have come down to a toe tap. Patrick Mahomes only threw eight incompletions. Other than the last drive of the game, he seemed to have the Ravens’ defense on their heels. By forcing the Ravens defense to call two early third-quarter timeouts, the Chiefs offense could have won the game when they got the ball with 4:50 left. Normally, Mahomes closes those games out, like Mariano Rivera once did for the Yankees. In this case, he could only get one first down before the Chiefs punted, giving the Ravens one last chance.  

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Lamar Jackson missed two throws in the red zone on the final drive. Overall, the Ravens’ execution in that area of the field was the reason they failed to overcome all the obstacles for the win. They must fix their offensive line, tighten up their defense, and figure out the best way to use Derrick Henry if they are going to make a return trip to Arrowhead next January.  The Ravens will improve in all areas, but Zach Orr, being a first-time coordinator on defense, cannot allow seven plays over 20 yards and only force nine third downs in the game. The Ravens are built to play from in front. When they have to play catch-up, it doesn’t fit their personnel.

The Chiefs look stronger on offense in terms of personnel but less good on defense. With the offense improved, the defense won’t have to carry the game as it did last season, which fits their pass-rushing style. Yes, I know it’s only one game, and we have tons of ball left, but the Chiefs will be tough to beat for many AFC teams.    

QB Ratings

TOP FIVE

1. Patrick Mahomes – Looks like he hasn’t missed a step and still can take a bad play and make it a great one.
2. Josh Allen – Excited to watch him in the Bills’ new offense, which will feature more 12 personnel than 11.
3. Joe Burrow – Healthy and with a better offensive line, Burrow should have a great year.
4. Lamar Jackson – He looked like his fast, explosive self last night.
5. Brock Purdy – Keep doubting him and watch him make plays.            

BOTTOM FIVE

28. Sam Darnold – Can he improve under Kevin O’Connell?  If Darnold protects the ball, the Vikings can be sneaky good.
29. Daniel Jones – He must use his legs, then his arm, and avoid being in a lot of third downs. 
30. Gardner Minshew – Minshew can play well for stretches, but I am not sure he can for 60 minutes
31. Will Levis – Can he cut down on the bad throws?  Not sure
32. Bryce Young – He can improve off of last year. 

2024 NFL Power Ratings

Based on last year and this summer. 

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

I don’t trust Sam Darnold. I don’t trust Daniel Jones. I don’t trust Minnesota. I don’t trust the G-men. So even though the line moved all over, I cannot feel good about a side. If I pick Minnesota, as soon as Darnold throws a pick, I will be cursing myself. When Jones fumbles and cost the Giants the game after I supported them, I will be so pissed. Therefore, the negative reaction on both sides makes me cue up Daryl and John, even though the most prolific duo in music history aren’t even speaking to one another. 

NFL Line of the Week

Miami’s opening at home is no surprise. The NFL loves to give the Fins a home game and let the opposing team melt in the heat and humidity. This year, it’s different. With Jacksonville coming to town, they are well prepared for the heat and humidity and shouldn’t melt in the sun. The Jaguars should be able to rush the passer and pressure the Fins’ offense, and if new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen has them playing as well as he did the Falcons on third down and in the red zone last year, the Jags should keep this close. Early in the week, weather was going to be a factor, with downpours around kickoff, but the system has been delayed, and it should be a typical South Florida day in September. 

Enjoy the games. 

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.