A Look Ahead to Week 10
When Canadian-born singer-songwriter Gordon Lightfoot was reading Newsweek (Back then magazines were popular—no internet, hard to believe, I know.) in November of 1975, he came across a story of an iron ore ship that was swept away by a violent storm while sailing on Lake Superior. Like all creative people, Lightfoot told a powerful story of this fatal accident, using part truths and his imagination. He released “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” in August of 1976, a number-one hit in Canada and the second most successful song of Lightfoot’s incredible career.
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As a storyteller, Lightfoot sets the scene perfectly at the end of the first paragraph, giving the listener a sense of oncoming doom when he sings, “that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed when the Gales of November came early.”
The “Gales of November” is the perfect way to describe the most important part of the NFL season that starts this weekend, which is why, on this date, many in the NFL believe the season starts now. Some teams will continue to play well, some teams will rise to a higher level, and most teams’ “lights will go out of sight” and sink.
Lightfoot uses the town of Whitefish Bay, Wisconsin, as the critical landing point the Fitzgerald needed to reach to save the 29 men on the ship. Borrowing on Lightfoot’s lyrics, let’s examine which teams have a chance to save their season—the Whitefish Bay group–and which teams have already gone under.
Sunk: Playing for Next Year
Carolina – Last night, we watched the Panthers’ offense struggle again to produce points and first downs, getting 12 all game. Their owner, David Tepper, went out of his way to hire an offensive coach and build an organization around Bryce Young. Now, this trade, even if Young plays well in the future, will be a huge overpayment. That has to embarrass Tepper, creating a huge problem for their head coach, Frank Reich. Owners never want to be embarrassed—and the Gales of November won’t be kind to the Panthers.
Chicago – The Bears are playing better on defense—especially against the run. Their offense isn’t going to improve, even when Justin Fields returns—sorry, Bears fans. The Bears front office, led by new President Kevin Warren, will need to decide if head coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles are the right men to trust with the rebuild.
New York Giants – Let the Tommy DeVito era begin. The Giants are a mess. They have overvalued their talent, overvalued their playoff season from a year ago, and now have a bigger mess than before. Sixteen-and-a-half-point underdogs with a 39 total, ranks the Giants fourth all-time in the last 20 years when they travel to Dallas this weekend. In those other games, only the Lions covered a 16.5 spread vs. the Steelers, 35-21. Let’s hope the Giants realize after this mess, they need a quarterback.
Arizona – Playing Kyler Murray isn’t a smart move. If he gets hurt, he could cost the Cards $98 million of future guarantees. Why risk it? Will Murray make the Cards better? Maybe slightly, but their season is over.
Los Angeles Rams – Even when Matthew Stafford is healthy, the Rams are not good enough to win games—they will have a top pick and need it.
New England – The Patriots might consider firing Bill Belichick, but who are they going to hire that is a better head coach? The Patriots have already succumbed to the Gales of November; they didn’t handle the light winds of October. Mac Jones is 6-30 on throws over 20 yards. Wonder why the Pats can’t make any big plays?
Whitefish Bay: Slight Chance Group
Denver – Don’t let their early season mishaps affect your handicapping. They have improved in all areas. Even though I doubt they can make Whitefish Bay, you cannot write them off as a potential seventh seed. Can they get to nine wins? It would require they win six of their remaining nine games. As Rocco told Michael in Godfather II, “Difficult, not impossible.”
Tennessee – You can never count out Mike Vrabel as a coach, specifically as a dog. He is 37-27 in September, October and November. His team isn’t good enough to make a playoff run, but they won’t be easy to play. I wouldn’t bet them to reach the playoffs. I would bet them to cover as a dog.
Las Vegas – Antonio Pierce has lightened the mood in Vegas, and the players seem happy. The one-game jolt always happens with a change. This week will determine if the Raiders need to be taken seriously. If they beat the Jets, they might be able to win four more down the stretch, especially if Aidan O’Connell doesn’t play like a rookie.
Indianapolis – With Gardner Minshew at quarterback, the Colts must play perfectly in all three phases to win games, which is highly doubtful. They probably belong in the “no chance” group.
New York Jets – Another team that belongs in the no-chance group as they will not beat any good team with how their offense operates. They should be 3-5 had the Giants made better decisions—and if your team almost lost to Tommy DeVito, how can we take your playoff chances seriously?
Green Bay – Matt LaFleur is discovering what life without a quarterback looks like in the NFL. Jordan Love will need to improve by leaps and bounds for the Packers to make it to Whitefish Bay, which is highly doubtful. Being in the North offers a slight chance and the reason they avoided the “no chance” category.
Tampa Bay – Being in the NFC South offers hope. Watching their offense offers less hope. Another team making the list solely for their division.
Atlanta – I would love to back the Falcons on paper, but then I watch the games and realize I can’t, as they always do the wrong thing at the wrong time. From not using the skill correctly, or protecting the passer, the Falcons are just good enough to get beat and tease us as bettors.
Washington – I am not being lured into the Washington trap of a few wins. Their defense is still bad—their offensive line is still bad, and this will prevent them from winning games against good teams. They belong in the other category, especially knowing they must play Dallas twice, Miami, San Francisco, and Seattle this week.
Whitefish Bay: Better Chance Group
Minnesota – The lucky coin that allowed Minnesota to win games last year has returned. It was missing the first part of the year. Now, they seem to have found their good fortune. Their defense has improved over the course of the year—which will need to continue if they are to secure the seventh seed. If you don’t like Minnesota for the seventh seed, who do you like? Atlanta, Tampa, Washington? Are any of them legitimate playoff teams? No. The NFL might want to consider the eighth seed in the AFC as the seventh seed in the NFC.
Buffalo – The schedule is tough, the talent on the team isn’t the same due to the injuries, and the sportsbooks make them an even money bet to make the playoffs—yes, just to make the playoffs. With Josh Allen, the Bills will always have a chance to win games, even if the rest of the team isn’t good.
Houston – CJ Stroud has been sensational in all areas except when he has to go on the road. His numbers are significantly less on the road in his four games: 9.31 yards per attempt at home to 6.85 on the road. The Texans are a good team in a weak division, which gives them a slight chance at the seventh seed.
Los Angeles Chargers – They are hard to trust—especially when playing a good team. They have improved their run defense over the season. If they can get Justin Herbert to raise his level of play, they might be the team to bet on to make the playoffs.
Cleveland – Right now, they are in the playoffs. It won’t stay this way if Deshaun Watson doesn’t raise his level of play, no matter how good their defense plays. His play in 2020 seems long ago and far away—and yet to show itself to Browns fans.
Pittsburgh – They look bad. They struggle for three quarters in most games. Yet, they win, and therefore, do you doubt that Captain Tomlin will steer his team to the playoffs? I don’t.
The next eight weeks is the NFL season. There will be storms, high winds, waves crashing over the bow, and only the strong will survive. It will take a well-seasoned captain and a quarterback who can make clutch plays to get home safely. That is why the only teams in the Whitefish Bay group I can buy into are the Bills and Steelers. If both those teams were in the NFC, they would be locks to make the playoffs. It’s going to be fun to watch this unfold.
Top Five Quarterbacks
1. Patrick Mahomes – The Chiefs offense isn’t clicking right now, nor has it clicked all season. Mahomes is at the top of his game; he needs those around him to increase their level of play.
2. Lamar Jackson – My MVP of the first half of the season.
3. Jalen Hurts – He looks injured. He doesn’t look as explosive or fast as last season, yet he still makes great throws.
4. Josh Allen – His shoulder is clearly bothering him, especially on deep throws, even though he isn’t on the injury report. He isn’t the same thrower as he was early in the season, as his numbers over the last four weeks have come down. His bad throws in the last four weeks have averaged 19.25. The first five weeks, 8.34. Something is wrong.
5. Brock Purdy – His numbers are still good. The week off will help, and having a healthy supporting cast will help more.
Bottom Five Quarterbacks
28. Kenny Pickett – He isn’t perfect or consistent. The team does rally around him and believes he can win games with him under center. It’s hard to watch at times until you look at the scoreboard.
29. Mac Jones – He hasn’t improved this season, and his rookie year seems like a dream. Jones is 6-30 on throws over 20 yards and leads the NFL in interceptions with 9.
30. Tyson Bagent – He isn’t always accurate or making smart decisions with the ball, but of the Bears’ three wins, Bagent has two of them.
31. Zach Wilson – Instead of throwing the ball into tight windows, Wilson is holding the ball and fumbling. Much like Jones, Wilson never shows consistent improvement.
32. Tommy DeVito – I am sure DeVito is a great person and probably will become an NFL coach. He isn’t an NFL quarterback, and if the Giants don’t change the scheme around him, he will get hit one too many times.
Power Ratings
These ratings consider the teams’ last four weeks of performance as well as the season. No team has steadily improved as much as the Ravens or the Bengals.
