The Giants aren’t looking so big
For many sitting at home on Thursday night watching the game, between the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers, the game was a tad boring. To those who have the DraftKings app on their phone, and could see from the onset this game wasn’t going the be close, the game became a gold mine.
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For the betting public, the best way to make money is to find a game where one team has total control from the start—especially if that team is playing at home. From the first series, the Giants were holding on for dear life. They couldn’t get off the field on third down. They couldn’t tackle in space, and the longer the game went, the more difficult the game was going to become for the G-Men.
There was never a moment when the game was in doubt for the 49ers as they were by far the better team. And when you realize the current score isn’t the reality, then you need to open your app and give it a go. Watching the game, even the novice fan realized whatever the “in-game betting line” the books released was never going to help the Giants cover. When the game got tight—by score only, 17-12 midway through the third, the books were giving away a gift as the 49ers were never going to be threatened. And they weren’t— winning 30-12 in an easy cover.
What makes matters worse for Giant fans, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t even play well. His end-of-game numbers appeared great. However, if you watch the game closely, of his 12 incompletions, the Giants had their hands on at least four passes that could have been intercepted. Had Purdy been on target, the score would have been an even larger margin, as the 49ers were 2-5 in the red zone and still won by 18 points. How many times did you think to yourself that Purdy was fortunate on that throw? Too many– and the 49ers still never were threatened.
Currently, two of the three best teams in the NFC, the 49ers and the Cowboys, have beaten the Giants by a combined score of 70-12, and neither game was close as the Giants mustered less than 200 yards of offense in each game.
In fairness to the Giants, their offensive line is riddled with injuries which hampers their ability to protect quarterback Daniel Jones and throw the ball down the field. Without Sequan Barkley, they can’t run the ball. Yet, even if Barkley played last night, did you think they could run on the 49ers?
It has been painfully clear the Giants haven’t improved from last year in all areas and their talent level is below par compared to the Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers. They have not closed the gap. Yes, they were a playoff team last season, even though most of us never viewed them as a legitimate playoff team. They started fast, won close games, and played great situational football. Their 2023 signature win early in the season was a 24-20 win over Baltimore when they scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to gain the victory. Yes, they beat Minnesota in the playoffs, but when you closely examine their record against good teams, the Giants weren’t close.
Based on the start of the season, nothing has changed, other than Jones is making $40 million per year and can’t play anywhere near that level. Jones has four 300-yard passing games under head coach Brian Daboll and his offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. One was against the Lions last year, gaining most of those yards when the clock was the Lions’ opponent, not the Giants. Then he posted two against the Vikings, one in a loss at Minnesota in the regular season and another in the playoffs against the worst defense in the NFL. Jones posted his fourth 300-yard game last week in the second half against the hapless Cards.
My point here is Jones isn’t a player who plays his best against the best. He cannot drive the team; he needs a great supporting cast to showcase his marginal skill set. Rarely does he throw the ball down the field, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt in his career. When facing pressure, forcing him to play fast or think fast, he doesn’t respond. His game doesn’t shine when facing the best defenses. Be objective and look at the numbers. Last night, Jones attempted 33 passes, averaged 3.5 per attempt, and the Giants offense could only muster 3.3 yards per play and 10 first downs, two by penalty. As the competition rises, Jones doesn’t.
After three games, they look like a team the books had correct with setting their win total at 8.5 and making you pay juice on the under. Does this team have the talent to win eight more games? Right now, it doesn’t appear they can win five more.
As for the 49ers, they appear to have the same look from last year, only adding Javon Hargrave inside at defensive tackle made their front even stronger. He was impossible to block on Thursday night, and when the 49ers went to their five-man line, forcing the Giant five offensive lineman to block one-on-one, all hell broke loose.
What makes the 49ers so challenging is they require an offense to string together eight or nine good plays in a row each drive to score and few can. Head coach Kyle Shanahan knows his defense won’t allow more than 20 points very often, so if he scores above 25, he will win most games, unless his offense makes mistakes. For Shanahan, knowing he has this type of leeway makes him even more dangerous as a playcaller.
Becoming good in the NFL is hard. Becoming great is even harder. Last night, the Giants showed the NFL community they haven’t reached the next level of being a good team let alone a great one.
QB RATINGS
1. Patrick Mahomes – The Chiefs offense isn’t on par from last year—or close to two years ago, but this isn’t the fault of Mahomes who still makes plays in spite of the adversity.
2. Lamar Jackson – Finally, under center, finally throwing the ball in the middle of the field, and finally looks like he did in 2019. He is a legitimate MVP candidate after two weeks.
3. Josh Allen – For the first time since Brian Daboll left, Allen played within the offense, not outside of the offense. He took the profits, made the right reads, and he didn’t try to win the game himself.
4. Tua Tagovailoa – With great skill around him, Tua uses his accuracy and timing to make plays and lets the receivers do the work. Their offense is playing at a high level-especially if they run the ball.
5. Jalen Hurts – Not the same as last season, yet still effective throwing the ball down the field. His numbers on third down have dropped from 2022 till now, but with 11 days to prepare, we might see the Birds play like they did last season.
BOTTOM FIVE
28. Mac Jones – At what point does he make plays to help his team win and not turn the ball over? Jones has one comeback and one game-winning drive in his 33 career starts. With chances to win, Jones doesn’t deliver.
29. Kenny Pickett – Pickett protected the ball in the second half of last year and made timely throws. So far this season, he has done neither.
30. Deshaun Watson – Watson hasn’t looked good since he put on a Browns uniform. He isn’t accurate and is not being decisive in his throws.
31. Justin Fields – Download GM Shuffle. It’s all there and please tear up your MVP tickets now.
32. Zach Wilson – He got blamed for last week’s game when those three picks occurred when the game was over in the fourth. Still, he is a turnover machine and too inconsistent.
POWER RATINGS FOR 2023
My statistical numbers after two weeks allow a better understanding of teams, yet far from perfect. The statistical breakdown of teams centers on the qualities in the areas that determine the outcome of games.
