Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to NFL Week 4:

Sometimes, NFL wins are shallow. Sometimes, wins are deceiving. Last night, the Cowboys got back on track in the win column. However, their overall team problems will raise huge concerns moving forward. Yes, they finally stopped their opponent’s running game. Yes, they were able to play from in front. And most importantly, they were able to win the fourth quarter. However, their overall outlook of winning the East and competing for the Super Bowl doesn’t look promising. Their talent level outside of a few stars isn’t impressive. 

What was obvious last night was Dallas could not affect the passer. Daniel Jones had time to throw the ball, work the pocket, and was only sacked one time for four yards and just three quarterback hits. Had the Giants been a better offense with a better quarterback, Dallas wouldn’t have been the winner. They faced Daniel Jones, who loves to check the ball down, who underthrows the deep ball, and never makes an explosive pass play. Had he laid the ball out on the deep throw when the Cowboys jumped offsides, the Giants would have scored and probably won the game—but he didn’t. The 39-yard pass on the first drive to Malik Nabers was underthrown, and by the end of the game, Nabers had 15 targets for 12 catches and averaged under 10 yards a catch—not what you want from a number one receiver. 

 

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Without DaRon Bland and only having Trevon Diggs as a solid man-to-man player, Dallas needs to utilize the supposed strength of their team to attack the passer, causing disruption and forcing turnovers.  Last night, they were never close to turning the ball over until the end of the game when they forced Danny Dimes to underthrow another deep ball. Now, with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence headed for the MRI machines today, their pass rushers might be limited in the coming weeks. Even with them, the Cowboys were not making Jones uncomfortable, engineering four drives of ten plays or more. 

After the game, head coach Brain Daboll said he was proud of the way Jones has played the last three weeks. In this game, Daboll was faced with five different fourth-down opportunities, three of them under 6 yards, and yet he never trusted Jones to attempt a fourth-down conversion.  When the game was on the line in the fourth quarter, and Jones was unable to convert any of the five third downs he faced, Daboll went for it on fourth down three times, converting two of them. They should have converted the third had Nabers not dropped the ball near the sideline.

Many will look at these decisions as Daboll, who normally isn’t conservative, being protective of his quarterback and not putting the outcome of the game squarely on his shoulders.  The one fourth-down call I am sure Daboll regrets is his decision not to go for it on 4th and goal from the Dallas 3 to start the second half. Had he scored a touchdown and made the two-point conversion, he is up 17-14, and the game takes a different shape. Instead, with a 14-12 game, he gave the ball back to Dallas. They only gained 28 yards on the next drive and still kicked a 48-yard field goal. Brandon Aubrey is a serious weapon for the Cowboys, as his range seems limitless. So why not play field position and pin the Boys back near their goal line and allow your defense to make a play?  One way or another, Daboll doesn’t trust his quarterback or his defense. 

As for the Cowboys, I don’t trust their defense. Yes, they stopped the run, but they don’t look as explosive rushing, nor able to affect the passer like they did last season. This isn’t a scheme criticism; this is a talent void. As I wrote at the end of last season, the Cowboys are not an underachieving team—they resemble an overachieving team, who because of their lack of activity during the off-season lack depth and above the line talent in their front. 

With Pittsburgh and Detroit looming before their bye week, I don’t feel the Cowboys will hit their stride anytime soon. The more I watch them, the more I believe they won’t beat Washington twice, which is a requirement to hit their Over win total. Dallas can celebrate the win last night and enjoy their weekend off. Their problems won’t go away as their lack of improvement to the roster in the offseason is painfully obvious after four games. 

Let’s look ahead to NFL Week 4.

NFL QB Ratings

Top Five

1. Josh Allen – Clearly the best player in the league right now. No picks in three games.
2. Brock Purdy – His team might be 1-2, but it’s not because of his overall play.
3. Sam Darnold – No one could have predicted Darnold being this consistently good.
4. Aaron Rodgers – Playing at a high level, with more room to improve.
5. Jayden Daniels – Yes, I know he’s a rookie, but he’s not playing like one.

Bottom Five

Deshaun Watson – He might not want to be a runner, but he isn’t a quarterback either.
Trevor Lawrence – He seemingly cannot complete even the simple throws.
Caleb Williams – Yes, he is a rookie, but the Bears aren’t helping him. No run game, no protection.
Will Levis – He makes the same mistake repeatedly.
Anthony Richardson – No one seems to mention how badly and inconsistently Richardson has played.

2024 NFL Power Ratings

We now have a better feel for some of these teams. These rankings seem more in line with the play. Some might seem high, some might seem a tad low. All of them are based on statistics that impact the outcome of games.

Green Bay’s numbers on both sides of the ball have been impressive. The improvement of their defense has been noticeable in terms of their ability to get the ball away from their opponent and how effective they have become on third down, only allowing 9 third-down conversions all season.

  1. Buffalo
  2. Kansas City
  3. Green Bay
  4. Philadelphia
  5. Detroit
  6. San Francisco
  7. Baltimore
  8. Minnesota
  9. Pittsburgh
  10. New Orleans
  11. New York Jets
  12. LA Chargers
  13. Dallas
  14. Cincinnati
  15. Houston
  16. Seattle
  17. Arizona
  18. Atlanta
  19. Chicago
  20. Indianapolis
  21. Miami
  22. LA Rams
  23. Tampa
  24. Cleveland
  25. Denver
  26. Jacksonville
  27. Washington
  28. Tennessee
  29. Las Vegas
  30. New England
  31. NY Giants
  32. Carolina

Hall and Oates Play – I Can’t Go For That

How are the Bears favored by 3 points against a team that just beat the 49ers? Yes, I know the Rams’ statistical numbers are bad on defense, which might influence the number. Three points though?  Something smells fishy and when things smell, I call John and Daryl and want no part of either side of this game. 

Line of the Week

When the Chiefs/Chargers line opened, it went to 7, then moved to 8, which indicated Justin Herbert isn’t going to be playing. Then we heard the Chargers won’t have their two starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, which means more trouble for their offense.  Then Herbert said he felt better than he did last week when he tried to play, presenting a good chance he would play, moving the line back to 7. With all the question marks surrounding the health of the Chargers and the Chiefs lack of covering when they are more than a four-point favorite, it makes me worried about touching either side, knowing it could move one way or another when Sunday rolls around. 

For more NFL Week 4 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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