Michael Lombardi: A look ahead to NFL Week 5

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Michael Lombardi
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A Look Ahead to Week 5

The moment my car starts, the first sounds I hear from my satellite radio are always Bruce Springsteen.  For ten minutes of my short commute, I’m on E Street, singing as loud as possible to any of his songs.  However, if there is a Springsteen concert from the late 1970’s, I will shift over to the Billy Joel channel, not because I don’t like Bruce’s early music, but rather, because there isn’t enough of Bruce’s material to play.  In the late 70s, his catalog is small—naturally he was only beginning, which keeps some of my favorites out of the rotation and causes me to shift the dial. 

 

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The other day, when this occurred, I flipped stations and heard Billy Joel singing “Summer Highland Falls,” a song about how life gives us two sets of emotions—sadness or euphoria—the perfect description for working in the NFL and betting on the NFL. 

The Bears and their fans have endured sadness for the last year, as chaos on and off the field has been the norm.  Nothing has gone to plan, nothing has been smooth, and after giving up an average of 33 points in the last 14 games, the Bears looked as though they might never reach euphoria for one brief moment. 

Well, it happened as last night entering the game as a 6.5 underdog, the Bears had the best first half of their head coach Matt Euberflus’s era, soundly beating a Washington team that looked more chaotic and disorganized. As their minority owner Magic Johnson tweeted after the game, “Tonight the Commanders played with no intensity or fire.”

Bears quarterback Justin Fields made plays with his arm, didn’t turn the ball over, and converted third downs. Receiver DJ Moore took over the game, making every fantasy owner delighted with his 280 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Bears’ defense played with aggressiveness, forcing two turnovers and sacking Washington quarterback Sam Howell four times. (Howell is on pace to be sacked over 90, 28 after five games.)  The game was over before Amazon’s legendary broadcaster Al Michaels could get into all the storylines, the biggest—which one of these coaches would survive if they didn’t turn their season around? 

The right answer might be both.  As bettors, we know both teams have major flaws and one good performance isn’t going to change the total trajectory.  Washington being almost a touchdown favorite rarely occurs, and when it does, it’s not good.  In 2000, they were a ten-point favorite against the Cowboys and lost, 27-21; in 2017, they were a 7-point favorite against the Giants and won 20-10; and in 2016 against the Rivera-led Panthers, they were a 7-point favorite and lost 26-16.  Washington clearly cannot handle being a favorite, nor can their head coach, as Rivera is now 47-51-2 against the spread as a favorite. 

Washington has now allowed 144 points over the last four games, 36 points per game. In their last two home games in front of an enthusiastic sold-out crowd, they surrendered 77 points, to the Bills and Bears.  It’s one thing allowing 37 to the Bills. It’s inexcusable to allow 40 to the Bears. 

Their defense was excellent last year, ranking third in yards allowed, seventh in points allowed, first on third-down defense and eighth in the red zone. This year, it has fallen apart.  They cannot stop anyone. Their well-paid and high-draft-value defensive line hasn’t been able to take over a game or create pressure on the opposing quarterbacks.  The Commanders’ defense has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt passing, 4.8 yards per attempt rushing, and have been behind in games by an average of 8.6 points.  

They lacked in-game adjustments as we watched Moore dominate, forcing us all to wonder if defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio or Rivera were going to decide to double Moore, forcing Fields to throw the ball to someone else.  Naturally, it never happened. 

Last season, Washington ranked 26th in forcing turnovers, and for two straight weeks, they have been unable to force any.  Don’t buy the rhetoric about this being a talented defense being made better with the return of second-overall pick, defensive end Chase Young.  Young looks average at best, and no one on this defense plays with any intensity or enthusiasm.

Before the season began, I liked the Commanders to hit their over 7.5-win total. Beating the Bears was a win factored towards the count.  It’s hard to find six more wins on their schedule card, especially if Washington continues not to protect the passer and their defense continues to allow the opposing offenses to score over 30.  Maybe offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was correct to demand more from the players this summer because based on their lackluster play, Rivera isn’t. 

Fields recorded his sixth NFL win last night.  In all of those wins, the Bears’ defense held the opponent to 20 points or less.  I’m sure everyone is back on the Fields hype train—perhaps even our own wordsmith and daily email creator, Chicago Bears fan Bill Adee.  I’m not letting a Del Rio-shaped game plan alter my thinking, even with home games against the bad Viking and Raider defenses. 

The Bears are still not a good team—but allow them to enjoy the euphoria of the moment.  I am not sure they are worthy of being a trusted bet as a slight favorite or dog.  As for the Commanders, there appears to be more sadness along the way.   As Joel writes, which applies to the last twenty-plus years of being a Washington football fan,

They say that these are not the best of times
But they’re the only times I’ve ever known.

Let’s hope the distant future holds something better for Washington football fans. It can’t get any worse than last night.  

QB Ratings

1. Patrick Mahomes – Last year, Mahomes was at 8.1 yards per attempt passing.  This season after four games, he is at 7.0.  That’s a huge decline and one we all can see as we watch the Chiefs on offense.  They don’t look the same. Neither does Mahomes, as the lack of explosive receiver talent is making it hard.  He is still great, but this year, more than ever, he has to carry the team.  

2. Josh Allen – He has transitioned from a shooting guard to a point guard, dishing out dimes to his skill players and allowing others to help him.  Allen is the ¼-mark MVP of the league.  He has 59 career wins as a starter — 45 of those have been by 7 points or more.

3. Brock Purdy – He has been on target, throwing the ball in rhythm, and allowing the top four playmakers to do the dirty work.  If Josh Allen is the Magic Johnson of point guards playing quarterback, Purdy is the John Stockton. 

4. Tua Tagovailoa – For the first time all year, Tua’s uniform required cleaning as the Bills were able to alter his timing and rhythm. Here is a question to ponder for the game against the Giants this week:  How can the Giants get to Tagovailoa? Their defense has a league-low 18 total pressures on opposing QBs this season. Tagovailoa has been pressured on just 12 dropbacks, the lowest among 30 QBs with 100+ pass attempts.  The 11.5 might go to 12 before Sunday. 

5. Matthew Stafford – Stafford only ranks 19th in quarterback EPA, yet along with head coach Sean McVay, both are performing at an ultra-high level.  I have marveled at watching Stafford on tape, with his quick decisions, pin-point accuracy and rhythm.  If he can stay healthy (big big if), then the Rams will be a thorn in every team’s side. 

BOTTOM FIVE

27. Mac Jones – At some point, Jones needs to play a good game against a good team.  Over the last 20 years, Jones is ranked 268th of 271 QBs as an underdog ATS. The only active QB worse? Justin Fields.

28. Kenny Pickett – Pickett is planning on starting this week against the Ravens. In his two games against the Ravens, one he left due to injury, the Steelers offense has scored just 30 points in total, winning one and losing one.  If you’re betting the Steelers, it’s not because of their offense. It’s because head coach Mike Tomlin is 11-2-2 ATS vs. the Ravens as a dog. 

29. Desmond Ridder – Ridder needs a run game to be modestly successful, and he needs to play from in front something the Falcons have failed to do all season.  Ridder is a better player at home—he averages 7.0 yards per attempt at home, 5.5 on the road, and has won every home game in his Falcon career.

30. Daniel Jones – Jones has been sacked too often, under pressure too often and has thrown a pick in every game this season.  Don’t expect things to turn around for the G-Men.  Last year, they were 7-0 ATS after a loss, this year, 0-2. 

31. Joe Burrow and Bryce Young – Burrow is injured, and this makes him vulnerable throwing and running.  His numbers are beyond bad, as he is the lowest quarterback in the EPA ratings.  Now, this will change, and he isn’t the worst quarterback in the league, but on one leg he is.  As for Young, he shares the lowest YPA in the NFL with Burrow under 5.0.  Young’s longest completion is 22 yards, and they cannot protect him. 

Power Ratings for 2023

From Dallas to Buffalo, all the teams are tightly aligned numerically.  From Denver to Chicago at the bottom, the same applies.  Philadelphia’s numbers are not near the same as last year, and their defense isn’t close to the same level—especially when attacking the quarterback.  Losing both coordinators hurts. 

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