Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to NFL Week 6:

Someone once said there is never a good time to do anything, so just do it now. It appears the New England Patriots have followed this advice. They haven’t wanted to play their rookie quarterback and the NFL’s third overall pick, Drake Maye, for fear of him getting trampled behind their horrible offensive line. After scoring 26 points in the last three games and passing for 352 yards in those games, the Patriots finally realized that now is the right time. The game is home. That helps. The Texans are coming off a big win and might be overlooking the Patriots, which also helps.  

The Patriots have nothing to lose, and that helps the most. Add in rookies Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix are all starting to play better in some varying degree. It makes the Patriots look a little gun-shy. 

 

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The Patriots claim they had a plan all summer for when Maye would play. But as Mike Tyson once said so eloquently, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” The Pats got punched the last three weeks. Their offensive is beyond bad, and this move allows them to gain a spark, or at least they hope. 

There is no doubt Maye needs to play. Since the start of the season, I have been reluctant to proclaim Maye should play for fear of ruining his short-term future. His lack of college experience worried me, especially concerning the other rookies who are improving each week. The offensive line worried me, as they have not been able to pass protect, and Maye will take one look, then take off running, which doesn’t help the development of a young quarterback.  The Patriots’ offense worried me, as they don’t seem to make the game easy for the quarterback with their lack of weapons. All those worries are cast aside now as the season is going down the drain.  Maye will have to put his big boy pants on and get ready to get hit and abused and perhaps make a few plays along the way. 

Head coach Jerod Mayo claimed he had a plan all along for Maye, which is hard to recognize. My sense is that Mayo wanted to win games with Jacoby Brissett, be competitive in his first year, and prove he was qualified for the big job while Maye stood next to him and learned. Makes sense—the learning part. The team being able to win games and be competitive doesn’t. Their defense, which was their best asset last year, has slowly taken a step backward, especially in situational football, like third downs and red area. As bad as things were in 2023, the Pats were sixth overall in third-down defense and sixth overall in limited red zone touchdowns. This season, they are 27th on third down and 16th in the red zone, with basically the same personnel as before. They are struggling to stop the run. The last three games, opponents have run the ball effectively, and as the season progresses, unless they get a spark from the offense, this trend will continue to go downhill. 

Let’s be clear: the move to Maye will generate some hope with the Patriots’ loyal fan base. Hope is what Mayo needs to prove he is a worthy replacement for six-time Super Bowl-winning coach Bill Belichick. Yes, things were bad last year under Belichick, especially on offense. But make no mistake, following a legend is never easy. Just ask Phil Bengston, who replaced Vince Lombardi. No fans are looking for Mayo to be the best version of himself right away. His lack of experience, never being a coordinator, makes this an on-the-job training exercise, which is fine. What everyone wants is improvement. Mayo needs to demonstrate that the team is getting better through his coaching and teaching. Not great, just better, and each week, fans can see how competitive the team performs against the competition. This hasn’t been the case the last three weeks—there has been zero improvement. 

Maybe with Maye under center, this will occur. There is no doubt Maye will make a few plays, create some excitement, and give the fans their much-needed hope. But don’t get excited just yet. We know rookie quarterbacks struggle. Maybe not this year, because these rookies have played in so many college games, whereas Maye has only started 30 games. With Maye’s lack of experience, his struggles will be profound. This might result in more turnovers, more frustration, and more losses. Don’t get concerned with week one or two. Bo Nix looked bad in those first few starts. Now he has improved. He is still far from being a legitimate starter in the NFL, yet there are glimpses of evidence.  Maye needs the reps. He needs to make mistakes, and he needs to grow and improve. His expectation bar is to improve each week, not producing wins.    

NFL QB Ratings

  1. Joe Burrow – He will have to play near perfect for the Bengals to save their season. 
  2. Josh Allen – Allen wasn’t himself last week, completing only nine passes.  No wonder the Bills lost.  The Bills aren’t good enough to win when Allen doesn’t play to an MVP level. 
  3. Lamar Jackson – Having Derrick Henry is the best gift Jackson has received since his big contract.
  4. Jayden Daniels – We all keep waiting for Daniels to plateau at some point this season.  Is this the week?  I’m not betting against him.  
  5. Brock Purdy – The throw he made to tight end George Kittle for the touchdown near the pylon was an all-time great throw.  Any of Purdy’s detractors need to watch the play and ask themselves, who else can make that throw?  Very few. 

BOTTOM FIVE

Anthony Richardson – He has a hard time staying healthy and playing consistently.  The team is better offensively with Joe Flacco.  But we know they need to play Richardson.
Will Levis – Not sure what the Titans see in Levis. He is inconsistent, turnover-prone and the team is better with Mason Rudolph. 
Aidan O’Connell – All the Raiders’ offensive problems won’t be cured with a quarterback change.  The biggest question for me:  Have the Raiders gotten worse?
Tyler Huntley – The best news for Fins fans this week, is they don’t have to watch their quarterback play as their on the bye. 
Deshaun Watson – How many more games are Browns fans going to have to watch Watson before the Browns pull the plug? 

2024 NFL Power Ratings

After five weeks, I am not sure if we have a legitimate Super Bowl team. We don’t have a dominating team. Parity is what the 2024 season is all about. Don’t believe me?  Check out this stat from Action Labs:  

The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 28-46-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $2,056 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.

Public by week:
+ Week 5: 6-8 ATS
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS

Yes, the Chiefs are the reigning champions, undefeated and will be there at the end, but they don’t look dominating. They look good, but they also look beatable.  Everyone looks beatable, which is why all the people who entered Survivor contest are having such a hard time. Every team has weaknesses; every team has strengths, some more than others. But over the next 11 weeks, the team that becomes the champion will be the team that improves their weaknesses.  

  1. Baltimore
  2. Detroit
  3. Minnesota
  4. Kansas City
  5. Buffalo
  6. Houston
  7. Green Bay
  8. San Francisco
  9. Washington
  10. Pittsburgh
  11. Chicago
  12. NY Jets
  13. Denver
  14. LA Chargers
  15. Dallas
  16. Tampa Bay
  17. NY Giants
  18. Arizona
  19. Seattle
  20. New Orleans
  21. Cincinnati
  22. Indianapolis
  23. Philadelphia
  24. Miami
  25. Atlanta
  26. Tennessee
  27. LA Rams
  28. Cleveland
  29. Jacksonville
  30. New England
  31. Las Vegas
  32. Carolina

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

Washington has been amazing all season with their rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Daniels has been explosive, throwing the deep ball and keeping their punter on the sideline. The Ravens haven’t been good defending the pass all year, so you might think this match-up against Washington might favor the Commanders. When the line came out, I was stunned. 6.5 points difference? Made no sense. Now, it has moved to 7.  Something smells fishy. And when I get the fish odor, I call Darryl and Jon to sing their song. 

NFL Line of the Week

The first five weeks of the NFL season, all the sharp bettors were taking the Panthers despite how bad they looked.  Each week, the line moved toward the Panther, which left me wondering why?  The Panthers stink on both sides of the ball.  This is the first week the line hasn’t moved in their favor  In fact, it has moved against them. The Falcons are rested, having played 10 days ago and should be ready to go. Hold on before turning in that betting card. In the betting world, when it looks easy, it never is. 

Enjoy the games.   

For more NFL Week 6 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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