Why bettors have overvalued the Buffalo Bills
The greatest coach of all time, Cincinnati Bengals founder, owner, and head coach Paul Brown, once said, “Football is a game of errors. The team that makes the fewest errors in a game usually wins.” Last night, we all witnessed the Buffalo Bills making more than their share of errors, losing to the Denver Broncos at home 24-22, making the Bills the 10th seed in the AFC playoff race.
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For the past few weeks, the Bills have been overvalued in the betting market. They’re an average team with a great quarterback, Josh Allen. And their great quarterback is turnover-prone, not only this season but since he entered the league in 2018.
Before last night, Allen was the league leader in interceptions with 69 since 2018, adding two more to that total against the Broncos. He also is the league leader in fumbles with 55, losing another one last night. To add more fuel to the decline of the Bills, they failed to cover last night for the sixth straight time, which is the most since Allen came to Buffalo.
As a franchise, the Bills haven’t failed to cover five games in a row since 1976. They are reaching new levels of poor play. Since their incredible win against the Dolphins in Week 4, the Bills are 2-4, scoring an average of 20.5 points per game and allowing 21.5. They have turned the ball over 13 times, forcing four. The questions everyone will ask today: Are the Bills overrated? Are the Bills’ playoff chances slipping away? Are the Bills no longer a Super Bowl team?
The Bills have been overvalued in the marketplace for the past five weeks—once they lost Matt Milano in the Jags game in London. Most of the sports books have been slow to react, fearing a Josh Allen explosion, which hasn’t happened during this span. He is averaging 7.21 YPA passing and 4.3 rushing in the past six games. His longest pass play over the last six games in 48 yards, and their offense isn’t in sync nor has any rhythm.
Honestly, what is the Bills offensive philosophy? The design of the Bills team is built solely on playing from in front, which is the essence of the West Coast offense—throw the ball to score, get the lead at the half, then run the ball to win the game. The Bills are never looking to establish any aspect of their offense. They run plays—not a system—and essentially, all they want to establish is the lead at halftime, which hasn’t been the case in the last six games. During this span of games, the Bills have been outscored 79-33 in the first half, forcing their defense to take fewer chances with their play sheet, not being in a rushing the passer position.
Their offensive philosophy is “let Josh make a play.” They are what I call a “Beater Offense,” which runs different plays each week to beat the specific coverage calls of their opponents. For example, the Broncos play Cover 6 on first down (weak safety in the box, middle of the field closed), and the Bills call a play to beat Cover 6, which looks great if they guess correctly.
If they don’t, Allen holds the ball and tends to throw into coverage, believing the power in his arm can overcome any obstacle. They are looking to make plays, using the past successful plays of their opponents to set up their game plan. In the past, this has worked because Allen can do the impossible at times, but when he becomes more mistake-prone than normal, this isn’t successful.
Playing from in front is vital for the Bills team. General manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott favor speed over size, believing if they get enough pass rushers and fast linebackers, they can create turnovers because their opponents will have to throw the ball to catch up. They are a small defense that is easily pushed around, and as the year goes along and the gales of November alter the weather, they cannot go toe-to-toe with any physical offense.
The philosophy looks good on paper but hasn’t worked on the field, especially against a good team. It was the same belief used by the Colts, playing with the great Peyton Manning inside their dome. When the Colts were forced to play outdoors in a cold weather game, they couldn’t dominate winning more than one Super Bowl. For as great as Manning was, and he was elite, his playoff record with the Colts was 9-10, with seven of his 10 losses coming on the road.
Now, you might counter that it’s hard to win playoff games on the road, which is a fair argument. His brother Eli’s two Super Bowl-winning runs all occurred with multiple wins on the road. Peyton Manning’s failure to win more than one Super Bowl with the Colts had more to do with their lack of power and physical toughness on defense once leaving the perfect track and weather of the dome than his play. With Allen in the last three playoff games, the Bills, going back to the 13 seconds blunder, have allowed 42, 31 and 27 points. What Super Bowl-winning team allows 33.3 points per game in the most important games? I’ll save you the Google search: none.
Since the loss in the AFC Championship in Kansas City and the mismanagement of the game defensively with 13 seconds left on the clock, preventing them from going to the Super Bowl, the problems internally on defense had been brewing. Former defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier asked to leave once McDermott informed him after last season his play-calling duties were being taken away. The narrative of Frazier leaving for health reasons was simply a way to divorce without causing any problems. Frazier was hired to call the games. Once that role changed, he wasn’t going to stay. He demanded to be paid and leave.
McDermott has been intimately involved with the defense each week when Frazier was there, so this shift in the play-calling responsibility indicates McDermott wasn’t happy with how the games were being orchestrated. Which is weird because all he would have to do is tell Frazier what he wanted. It was McDermott’s defensive scheme, and the team was built around McDermott’s philosophy. So, why not adjust the calls instead of making a radical change? Clearly, the lack of success and the fatal 13 seconds in Kansas City still lingers.
Allen will take most of the heat for the 2-4 record in the last six games, which he plays a huge role in by giving the ball away. Yet, by their design, the Bills’ defense isn’t built to play in all different styles. It’s either Allen dominates and gets the lead, or else they fall short. When Allen doesn’t hide the faults of the Bills’ approach to team building, they will lose to any good team and continue to be overvalued. Think about it objectively (if you can, Bills fans): when they needed to get a stop the past six weeks to either win the game or seal the victory, they couldn’t—New England, Cincinnati, Denver, even the Giants, who stopped themselves more than the Bills.
With the Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers and Miami yet to play on the road, and with the Jets, Cowboys and Patriots at home, the Bills will need to find at least five more wins in the remaining seven games. Can they? Before last night, the book had them as an even-money team to just make the playoffs—not win the Super Bowl. They are favorites against the Jets this week by seven and will be favorites against the Chargers and Patriots. The remaining games, they will be the dog, requiring Allen to raise his level of play, which is possible.
The Bills’ playoff hopes are on life support and not a bet I would advise anyone to make. Their Super Bowl chances are fading fast. Unless the Bills realize they need to adjust their team-building ways and develop a structural offense around Allen’s skill set, they won’t be a serious Super Bowl team anytime soon. Despite all the belief that continues to get floated around the airwaves these days that one superstar player in the NFL can win titles, history has proven otherwise. Just ask Peyton.
