Michael Lombardi – How bad are the Carolina Panthers?:

How bad is bad? It’s one of the hardest questions to answer when studying downtrodden teams. We know the Carolina Panthers are bad. We just don’t know how bad. They have been outscored 50-3 in the first half. They have only converted two first downs in 22 attempts while allowing their opponents to convert 16 times in 29 third downs. Opposing quarterbacks have a 124.3 rating, and Bryce Young averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt, which is actually worse than last year. But before we get into Young’s benching, let’s take a moment and look back to the Panthers offseason planning.

When Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper decided to draft Bryce Young, going against what most in his organization wanted, he was left on an island. And when owners are all alone, the blame game starts and rapid change happens soon afterwards, because the first rule of NFL ownership is they are never wrong. Because Young looked so bad, as did the entire team, Tepper fired his coach, Frank Reich and decided to hire an offensive coach to fix Young. 

 

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After ignoring Bill Belichick as a potential candidate for obvious reasons (Belichick wouldn’t take orders from Tepper or his wife), Tepper wanted to hire someone he and his new general manager, Dan Morgan, could control. Morgan endeared himself to Tepper’s wife, Nicole, who is involved in the team’s day-to-day operations. Even though Morgan was involved with every decision former general manager Scott Fitterer made, he somehow became the man in charge, or at least by perception. 

Canales came into view as a head coaching candidate because he could improve Baker Mayfield—which he did. However, Canales spent 13 seasons in Seattle with Pete Carroll, and he was never promoted to the offensive coordinator position. Carroll brought Canales with him from USC as a strength coach and then transitioned him into a position coaching role.  

From my experience in the NFL, one year as a man in charge (on one side of the ball) doesn’t seem like enough time to be given the keys to a $6 billion organization. Canales might be a great head coach, but there is a learning curve, and with no real experience in the front office to help Canales grow, he seems like a man on an island. 

This offseason, with the mandate to help the quarterback, the Panthers invested heavily in their offensive line, signing two guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. The motivation to sign and overpay guards was simple. Bryce Young is short and requires inside-out protection, so securing the middle is vital. They also traded assets to draft an injured runner, Jonathan Brooks, in the second round, even though they had already paid Miles Sanders and had serviceable Chuba Hubbard on the team. Their roster had turnover on both sides of the ball, and according to the Teppers and Morgan, if Canales could improve Young, the team would be drastically improved. So far, it’s hard to see improvement on either side of the ball. 

By benching Young, Canales hopes the team’s chances of winning will improve. Reminder for Dave: Never confuse hope for a plan. This sounds good in theory, yet Young doesn’t play defensive line or in the secondary, two areas where the Panthers struggle. The team is a mess, and even though the betting market seems to love the Panthers’ initial number, their chances of winning the game are over before the first quarter ends.

I am not defending Young. For me, it takes 20 games to determine if a quarterback is an NFL-quality starter. So far, Young has played in 19 games, and by all indications, he hasn’t shown NFL skills. I liked Young in college and thought he had great instincts and feel, even though I didn’t like his overall size.

One reason to have a grading system for the college draft is to prevent taking players early in the draft that don’t meet the required size. Grading systems force the evaluator to follow the protocols of the standards set by the team for the position. When a player doesn’t meet the standard, he becomes the exception—and the object of the grading system is to avoid exceptions. 

Young is slight, short and small, and more importantly, he plays small—he didn’t play small in college, but pro football is far from college. Young struggles to see down the field and doesn’t have the arm power to drive the ball when the pocket gets tight.  His size does prevent him from being a great player, and he doesn’t have the speed, or run skills like Kyler Murray, who struggles when kept in the pocket, but when he escapes like he did against the Rams, watch out.

When you spend a first-overall pick in the draft for a player and give up DJ Moore, a 2023 first and second-round pick, along with 2024 first and 2025 second, you don’t draft an exception. All of this happened under the leadership of the Teppers, who have complied a 31-80 record since owning the team and have fired four coaches and two general managers in his time as the owner. 

For us as bettors and handicappers, the biggest mistake we make (I did last week), is assume things—when there is no evidence. And to believe the Panthers will turn their season around because of this move, we are assuming too much. Benching Young seemed a little premature for me. Yes, he isn’t good, but neither are the Panthers. 

It will be interesting to determine how the Panthers raise their level of play against the Raiders. If they start slow and get behind like in the first two games, then we know it’s not all on Young. If Andy Dalton turns the ball over, as he has been known to do, much like Young has, then we know the Canales offense isn’t the answer for anyone. For me, all the problems in Carolina start and end with Tepper. He needs to realize he isn’t a football expert, nor does he understand how to build an organization that resembles a championship. Until he fixes those problems, moving other pieces around is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Please don’t assume the Carolina Panthers will be better with your bets. Wait and watch their effort. 

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