Michael Lombardi’s look ahead to NFL Week 2:

When Tom Brady was inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame, he gave a passionate speech about the value of hard work, mental toughness and what qualities teams needed to achieve a championship. Brady said, “Life is hard. No matter who you are, there are bumps and hits and bruises along the way. And my advice is to prepare yourself because football lessons teach us that success and achievement come from overcoming adversity and that team accomplishment far exceeds anyone’s individual goals. To be successful at anything, the truth is you don’t have to be special. You just have to be what most people aren’t. Consistent, determined, and willing to work for it.  No shortcuts.” Heading into NFL Week 2, the Miami Dolphins have been the anti-Brady-like team. Head coach Mike McDaniel is easygoing, letting the players run the program and significantly impacting the team’s direction. He is a delegator, allowing the coordinators to control their side of the ball without interruption or holding anyone accountable. 

McDaniel calls plays and runs the offensive game plan, and his quirky, nerdy way has endeared him to the national and local media, completely overlooking the fact his team has gone 4-10 in the last 14 games of two seasons.  His easygoing nature, his high-flying offense, and his willingness to go for it on fourth downs keep him from being scrutinized by outsiders.   

 

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When Miami and former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio parted ways last year, many players including Jalen Ramsey complained Fangio was too rough on the players, too demanding, too harsh. Kind of the anti-Brady message. When the players reported their unhappiness to McDaniel, he sided with them and Fangio left, thus making Anthony Weaver the third defensive coordinator in three seasons under McDaniel.    

In two games, Miami hasn’t looked well coached or resembled the team that has a chance to compete for a title, even though their owner, Stephen Ross, thinks they will.  “Right now, we have a great roster, and I think everybody has great expectations,” Ross said via the team’s official transcript. “But hey, it’s the old injury bug. You got to make sure that that doesn’t happen like last year. I think without that and we stay healthy, I think we’re certainly a contender for the Super Bowl.”

That health concern reared its ugly head last night, as we all hope Tua can come back at some point this season and resume his career. However, with concussion concerns that lingered all last season, the hope is he doesn’t rush back. That places Miami in a tough spot and will highlight why they haven’t finished strong, even when they had Tua all season in 2023. 

Football, like baseball, requires certain elements to win. Any great baseball team needs great pitching. General managers who build teams around hitting look good for a certain portion of the season. Then, when the games matter most, they can’t outscore anyone. It happens all the time. 

The same is true with football. So many current general managers are building teams as if they are playing Madden 2024—all skill, no blockers. Why draft an offensive lineman when you can find a third receiver? We need players to get the ball in the end zone, and that’s true, but we also need players to protect our passer.  

Miami, under Chris Greer and McDaniel, loves skill, and they haven’t improved their line in three years. They keep signing more skill, believing the skill will win. Guess what? It won’t. Wonder why they can’t beat good teams? They never control the lines. They never do the hard stuff; they never embrace tough—essentially, they never follow Brady’s message.

I have never bought into the Miami program, partly because it violates everything I believe is needed to win a championship—hard work, discipline, great offensive and defensive lines, and, most of all, dedicated players who have mental toughness. I feel bad for Tua and hope he takes as much time as he needs. But without an offensive line and the characteristics of a championship team, I never bought into them as a Super Bowl contender. 

QB Ratings

For this exercise, and because of the limited play, the rookie quarterbacks will not appear in the top five or the bottom for NFL Week 2.  We need more data. 

TOP FIVE

1. Patrick Mahomes – With a better supporting cast, Mahomes will post even better numbers.
2. Josh Allen – Allen is the best player, and if he doesn’t play his best every week, the Bills are an average team.
3. Lamar Jackson – Jackson looks explosive and ready to run at a moment’s notice. That’s a good thing, since his offensive line isn’t as good as last season.
4. Brock Purdy – Still making great throws and never getting any credit.
5. Matthew Stafford – No protection and losing Puka Nacua didn’t affect Stafford. He was sensational. If the Rams don’t improve their protection, Stafford might not be standing at the end of the year.

BOTTOM FIVE

There is competition for the worst quarterback in the league after last week’s play.  Here is some evidence supporting the poor play:

In Week 1, there were a total of 34 passing touchdowns between all 32 teams. That’s three fewer than last year.  There were 17 QBs with fewer than 200 passing yards with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970. There were also 24 QBs with one or fewer passing touchdowns with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.

Two teams threw for 300+ passing yards: The Dolphins and Rams. Neither covered the spread. For the first time since 2010, no team with 300+ pass yards covered a Week 1 game. Because of the horrendous play, it’s hard to make one bad quarterback better than the other.  So, let’s make them all the bad—all 32n ranked in the NFL

Here is the cluster of bad for NFL Week 2. 

Deshaun Watson – If he doesn’t play well in Jacksonville, who will get the blame?  Ken Dorsey? Kevin Stefanski? Or will we all understand he isn’t ever coming back to his Houston form.
Daniel Jones – Often when a quarterback gets hit so many times, their eye level comes down and can’t see the field.  Jones reminds me of David Carr, who was hit so often, his career ended.  Jones cannot see down the field; he is so worried about getting hit.  If he doesn’t play well against the worse secondary in football, then it’s over. 
Will Levis – The Titans went all in with Levis, sending head coach Mike Vrabel packing and building the team around general manager Ran Carthon’s vision for Levis.  I am not on board,  Levis is far too inconsistent and let’s not forget, he couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State.
Bryce Young – My rule for all quarterbacks is to wait 20 games to affirm their future.  Young is on game 19 and unless something dramatic changes, he is a big-time bust. 
Malik Willis – Willis started in a game for the Titans against the Chiefs, completing five passes in 16 attempts, gaining 48 yards on one play a screen to the tight end. He did have 40 yards rushing, and what is more remarkable was the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime, losing 20-17. I know there is pro money coming in on Green Bay, but I am not betting on Willis to play well, or even complete more than 15 passes. 

Power Ratings

The sad part of the results from Week 1 for some executives and coaches is they know they have ZERO change of making the playoffs. It’s a harsh reality, like having cold water splashed on your face. Yet it becomes painfully obvious after a regular season game. Do you think Carolina, Denver, Washington, the Giants, Arizona, Las Vegas, Tennessee, New England believe they have a morsal of a chance to enter the post season? Of course not. 

Whereas some do. And some are not sure. The do’s are San Francisco, Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit, Dallas, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Houston. The “not sures,” Miami, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. Then the rest, are in the “we need more information category,” but let’s be real, it doesn’t look good as of this moment. 

Once we have four games under our belts, these power ratings will become more consistent, and the eight no-chance teams will have more company after NFL Week 2. 

San Francisco
Kansas City
Baltimore
Detroit
Dallas
Philadelphia
Buffalo
Houston
Green Bay
Miami
Cincinnati
NY Jets
Jacksonville
LA Rams
Chicago
LA Chargers
Cleveland
New Orleans
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Atlanta
Seattle
Arizona
Tennessee
Las Vegas
New England
Washington
Denver
NY Giants
Carolina

    Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

    The Chargers won last week and didn’t look great. It might have been one of Justin Herbert’s least impressive games in a win, throwing for 144 yards in 26 attempts. The  Chargers’ skill players are average, and unless they can run the ball, they will struggle to win against man coverage. I know running or passing should be easy versus the Panthers as they were bad from start to finish last week in every phase. Once again, like it did against the Saints, this line is moving towards them as the sharps seem to love their side. In this game, I don’t love any side. I could never take the Panthers or feel good about the Chargers, even at -4.5. So sing, Daryl. Sing loud. 

    Line of the Week

    I thought Washington was bad on defense last week, bad on offense, and couldn’t make a field goal. With a rookie quarterback and a rebuilding project, that is to be expected in the first game.  The Giants looked bad in all areas, but they are still a better team than the Commanders. How are they dogs? Why are they dogs? We have to determine whether the line moved to Washington because of the perception of the Giants or because the power ratings were so close. Either way, it’s hard to back a rookie quarterback and a bad line against a team with a good defensive front.  If I had to make a play, I’d take the G-Men, and hold my nose. 

    Enjoy the games.

    For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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