Michael Lombardi – Replacing an NFL coach isn’t always the answer:

At a team meeting before Thanksgiving, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin instructed his team “that if they need a place to go tomorrow for Thanksgiving dinner, his home is open to any and all of them.”  Besides understanding how to strategize his team towards winning each week, Tomlin also knows how to create a powerfully strong team bond. Opening his home to team members exemplifies how Tomlin connects—and still leads. He isn’t labeled a “player-friendly” NFL coach. He is known as the ultimate leader and motivator, who prepares his team weekly for the challenges that await.  The Steelers have always been united, tough-minded, and, most of all, always found ways to win close games.  Nothing prevents Tomlin from mastering his craft each season. 

Meanwhile, as NFL organizations make changes at the head coaching position, they often don’t have as much success as Tomlin and the Steelers. Teams make changes for change’s sake, which never makes sense. Look at the Falcons; they fired Arthur Smith for being 7-10 three years in a row. They don’t change their front office or decision-making structure and hire Raheem Morris as their new man.  They all believed adding a quarterback was all they needed to improve, discounting the work Smith had done to achieve the seven wins. With Morris, they have taken steps backward, causing many to wonder, why didn’t they keep Smith, add a quarterback, and move forward, building off the good? The Falcons won’t come near their win total set this summer at 9.5, with many believing their Super Bowl odds were too short. Now, it will take a great effort to win the South with no chance of getting close to New Orleans for the Super Bowl. 

 

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When the Patriots fired six-time Super Bowl-winning coach Bill Belichick as their head man, they said nice things at his farewell press conference. The next day, they began to destroy his legacy, on and off the record, promoting a new environment, a friendlier atmosphere, and curtailing the work ethos Belichick built. They hired Jerod Mayo, someone the front office saw as kinder, easier going, and life was going to improve. When you examine the Patriots of 2024 to the Patriots of 2023, they have gotten worse in almost every single statistical category, with an easier schedule.  The Patriots’ win total was set at 4.5, which will be hard to reach. 

The Titans fired Mike Vrabel and hired Brian Callahan to fix Will Levis at quarterback. Last season, Tennessee didn’t have a quarterback due to Ryan Tannehill’s injuries, and their team suffered. This season, with a new offensive line and more skilled players, they have gotten worse. Levis is still massively inconsistent and makes too many mistakes. The offense under Callahan’s leadership has gotten worse.  The Titans’ win total was set at 6.5, which was rather ambitious and not likely to cash. 

Meanwhile, Seattle hired Mike Macdonald to fix their defense and improve their team.  Their win total was set at 7.5, and now, gaining their eighth win last weekend in Arizona, they hit their Over. Macdonald delivered. Callahan, Mayo, Morris, and Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce haven’t so far, and it doesn’t appear they can. 

For each team that hasn’t hit their Over win total or have come close, it’s fair to say they have all taken a step backward from a year ago. The change hasn’t proved to be beneficial.  What can we learn from last year to help us make money on betting futures next season?  Remember, last spring, everyone doubted Tomlin getting over his win total, yet everyone believed in Morris, who wasn’t a successful head coach the first time around. In his wonderful book, The Art of Thinking Clearly, author Rolf Dobelli writes, “The human brain seeks patterns and rules. In fact, it takes it one step further: if it finds no familiar patterns, it simply invents some.” We tend to believe the hype of the offseason, the happiness within the building, and the positive vibes from the players. Yet all that is noise when it comes to winning games in the fall. We believe the “pattern of change” will pave the road towards winning. It won’t. 

In the future, we all need to be leery of change, and be cautious of overvaluing the obvious.  As an example, yes, Atlanta needed a quarterback, but they also needed other areas of improvement, so one player didn’t get them over the top. What we must view with a sharper lens is the fit of the change and whether the person coming in has the skills needed to institute the change. Yes, Callahan can coach offense, but can he coach Levis? More importantly, is Levis as good as Burrow?  I think we all know the answer to that one. 

What is most disheartening for those four teams, is they are reliable to bet as dogs. They are so inconsistent, we don’t see any pattern of improvement, so when they play a good game, as Tennessee did vs. the Texans, the next two weeks, they revert back to being horrible. The number one evaluation process for many of the new coaches comes down to answering a simple question: are we improving?  The Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks and Chargers all can say yes.  The rest, no.  So be careful betting those four, even when the numbers look tempting.

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