The Biggest Question Facing Each NFC Team:

Max De Pree was in the office furniture business he inherited from his father, D.J.  From his experience selling his product to corporations, De Pree learned a few things about leadership, which led him to write Leadership is Art, a book that sold over 800,000 copies. It’s amazing what one can learn by watching others move around the office. One of his many wonderful quotes from the book helps us understand the difference between being a manager and a leader.  De Pree wrote, “Leadership is a function of questions. And the first question for a leader is: ‘Who do we intend to be?’ Not ‘What are we going to do?’ but ‘Who do we intend to be?” Joe Schoen of the Giants might want to read De Pree’s book to help him understand his role as an NFL general manager—just a suggestion. 

Nonetheless, as we approach training camp, all teams have questions that must be answered in the coming weeks. As bettors and handicappers, correctly answering those questions will help us establish our power rating for the season. Currently, power ratings on paper are essentially worthless.  For example, the Jets today could be power-rated highly if they stay healthy over the next few months, but can they? They look great on paper, yet they have many questions that must be answered before anyone can be certain about their value in the marketplace. 

 

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This week, I will examine the NFC and the most serious questions that need to be answered in the coming weeks, which will determine their power rankings before the first game.

Arizona Cardinals
How will this team find a down-the-field passing game? Kyler Murray has averaged 6.1 and 6.7 in the last two years, with 24 TDs and 12 INTs, and a 6.3 sack percentage, the highest since his rookie season of 8.1.  

Atlanta Falcons
Who is going to command a double team in the front seven? Losing Calais Campbell and his team-leading 17 quarterback hits will be hard. Can a team that finished 29th in creating turnovers be able to create turnovers this year without any new players?

Carolina Panthers
In 13 games, they scored less than 20 points. In 11 games, less than 16 points. Can new coach Dave Canales make a difference? Both of their wins last year were by two points. We must find evidence early that the Panthers are on the right path offensively. Pre-season will matter here. 

Chicago Bears
Montez Sweat arrived at the trade deadline and led the team with six sacks. Are they good enough up front to play the Matt Eberflus scheme, which relies on a dominant defensive front? Who else will rush effectively? 

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys scored 296 points in the first half and allowed 172—a 124-point differential. They outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter 144-67. This lead has allowed them to avoid teams wanting to run the ball on them all game—which is a problem for their defense. They are the 15th in yards per rush in the NFL; it could be more if the games were closer. In four of their six losses, they allowed 266, 222, 170, 143, and vs Detroit, 125. 

Detroit Lions
The Lions only attempted two field goals outside of 50 yards all season. They ranked 32nd in FG attempts. They made 40 attempts on fourth down, 52.5%, and ranked second in the NFL with 2.3 fourth downs per game. Imagine if they had taken the three points instead of turning the ball over? 

Green Bay Packers
In four games last year, the Packers allowed over 200 yards rushing and lost each one—Atlanta, Detroit, Giants, and Steelers, three of which were on the road. Can they improve their run defense?  They were 28th in yards, 23rd in YPA, and 26th in rushing attempts allowed per game. This will be easy to see from the first day. 

Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald will walk into the Hall of Fame in five years. Last year, he was great, not his usual dominating self, but still had 23 quarterback hits and eight sacks. Who will fill the void? Who will take all the double teams? Byron Young and Kobie Turner had 17 sacks and 35 quarterback hits, playing off Donald. Can they still be as effective? The Rams finished 30th in the NFL in takeaways per game. 

Minnesota Vikings
Can Sam Darnold protect the football? Over his career, he has averaged a 3.1 interception ratio. However, in the last two years, in those 16 games, his interception percentage fell to 2.15. Minnesota finished 30th in the NFL in turnover margin per game. They need ball security from their quarterback. 

New Orleans Saints
Will Derek Carr play like he did the last five games of the season: 4-1 record, 14 TDs, two INTs, and a high completion percentage?  Or will he play like he did the first four games:  2 TD, 2 INT, and not scoring more than 20 points in a game? The Saints averaged 15.5 points in the first four games, 28 in the last four. Which Carr will it be in 2024?    

New York Giants
The Giants in 2022 were 18th in the NFL in points per play. Last year, without Daniel Jones, they ranked 30th in points per play. Now, without Saquon Barkley, what will this offense look like? Barkley’s last two seasons: 16 TDs, 113 first downs rushing, and 4.25 yards per carry on 18 carries per game. Who replaces those numbers? Barkley gained 482 yards after contact last year and 480 before. Devin Singletary had 348 yards after contact and 550 before. 

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia ranked 30th in the NFL in allowing points in the fourth quarter. They were 24th in sack percentage, 6.39% of the passing attempts. In 2022, they were first with an 11.05 sack percentage. Can they return to these numbers, and will they be in better shape? 

San Francisco 49ers
Ball security is everything for the 49ers.  In the nine games they didn’t commit a turnover, they were 9-0.  In the three games they committed three or more, they were 0-3.  In games with one or two turnovers. they were 4-3. When they protect the ball, they win.

Seattle Seahawks
Everything about the Seattle defense was bad last season, from run defense to pass defense. They ranked 30th on third-down defense and 23rd in the red zone. With their bad numbers, it’s hard to imagine they won nine games.  If new coach Mike Macdonald improves the defensive side of the ball and regains home-field advantage, the Seahawks will be in the playoff race. Seattle is 24-17 in the last five years at home. 

Tampa Bay Bucs
The Bucs have finished 31st and 32nd in rushing in the last two seasons. Their best efforts were a long run of 38 yards last year and 35 in 2022. Can they find a running game to help their explosive passing game? 

Washington Commanders
What can we expect from Jayden Daniels as a rookie? He is a threat to run the ball, gaining over 1,000 yards on the ground at LSU, but can his body hold up in the NFL running? We will see how he reacts early in preseason. Can Washington protect him? The Commanders finished 28th in sack percentage last year and 25th in 2022.

Next week: the AFC. 

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