Finding Value with the Denver Broncos:

As the great Jimmy Buffett once wrote in his song, He Went to Paris, “Questions that bothered him so.” Well, I have a huge question that has bothered me so for most of this summer. Why is the Denver Broncos’ win total lower than the Las Vegas Raiders? 

The book has set the Denver Broncos win total at 5.5 and the Raiders at 6.5. It’s only one game—but that is a huge belief by the sportsbooks and the betting world that the Raiders are the better team. And some recent facts offered validity to the numbers. The Raiders have dominated the Broncos on the field for the last five years, evidenced by their 9-1 record. Some games have been close, some not, but 90% of the time, the Autumn wind is blowing.

 

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I get it, the book doesn’t think the Denver Broncos have a quarterback. Even though the Raiders will start Gardner Minshew, we all understand, the book included, that the Raiders don’t have one either. From the books’ point of view, the difference between both teams is the Raiders have the better defense—which might be correct in some ways. They have the better defensive line, for sure. Are they better in the secondary and linebacker? Not sure. One area that favors the Broncos is their head coach, Sean Payton, a personal friend of Mr. Buffett, who is why I’m not buying the Raiders over the Broncos. 

Payton understands how to win games with the team he assembled.  He is from the Bill Parcells school of asking himself the fundamental question before the season: How do I have to play to win games? Last year, he wasn’t sure, in part because he didn’t know what Russell Wilson could cook. Was Russ a short-order cook, a line cook, or a sandwich maker? He later found out he was no chef at all. Therefore, Payton ran the ball, protected the quarterback from losing the game, and after the 70-point debacle in Miami, got his defense to play better. They even beat the Chiefs.  

Payton knew he couldn’t throw the ball to win. if the game came down to his offense driving the field, like in the Jets game or New England, both at home, they would fall short—and they did. He had to be conservative with his play calling, slow the game down, and hope by the fourth quarter, he was in a one-score game with the lead.   When the Broncos had one turnover or less on offense, they were 8-3. When they committed two or more, they were 0-6.  They lost to the Commanders, Patriots, and Jets and still won 9 games. 

Things are different in Broncos country this year. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is a perfect selection for Payton to run his offense. He is smart, tough, a great leader, and will follow the plan. If things break down, Nix can make plays on the move. His preseason play has showcased his skill set. More importantly, it has demonstrated how good Payton can coach the quarterback. For me, Payton’s talent as a coach is what makes the Broncos able to win more than five games. 

Payton isn’t going to throw Nix to the wolves like Eric Bieniemy did to Sam Howell last year in Washington. He will protect him, get him to understand where he is protected, how to alter the protection and not let the ball sit in his hands. Will Nix make mistakes? Hell yes, but so will Minshew and every other quarterback. They all do—only the great coaches and players understand how to avoid most of the bad plays. What bothered Payton about Wilson is what he loves about Nix. Nix will do as he is told—Wilson, not so much. 

The Raiders’ win total is set at 6.5 in part because they finished strong last year, and there is a perception that Year 2 of the Antonio Pierce administration will only improve. Are we sure about that? The Raiders players played hard for Pierce and wanted him to have the job full-time. As we know, interim coaches have short shelf lives (based on past performance) as the main guy. The one-time uptick never carries over to the next season, which is a concern for Pierce.  

Can Pierce get the same level of intensity? The Raiders players who lobbied owner Mark Davis to hire Pierce may love their coach, and he might be player-friendly, but time has proven that happiness has a shelf life. 

Like the Broncos, the Raiders must play a certain style to win games. They must keep from losing the game, rely on their defense to battle their opponent, and depend on their specialist to control field position and score points. They have excellent skill players, starting with Jakobi Meyers, rookie Brock Bowers, and second-year tight end Michael Mayer.  Davante Adams hasn’t been active this summer, with the birth of this third child, unhappiness over his contract, and some internal concerns from those inside the Raider building that Adams might have lost a step. He still has great hands, body control and route running. Last year, it was clear he didn’t have the burst or the explosiveness at the top of the route, which must worry all in Raiders land. The time to trade Adams was this past offseason, and if things go bad with Minshew under center, the love affair Adams once had for Pierce will become a bigger problem. 

As good as the Raiders played defensively down the stretch, winning in Kansas City on Christmas Day, they still were not a good situational team. They struggled to win on third down, offensively and defensively, and were a horrible offensive and defensive red zone team. They won with their effort and not turning the ball over the last four weeks of the season. They were plus eight the last four weeks. Only against the Colts did they fail to force a turnover, which resulted in a loss. 

Week 5 will be the litmus test to determine if the book set the number too high on the Raiders or too low on the Broncos. The Raiders will travel to Denver after opening on the road in Los Angeles versus the Chargers, then back east to face the Ravens before two home games against the Panthers and Browns. If the Raiders travel to Denver with one win under their belt and a struggling offense, will they be able to right the ship?  

Denver faces a road game in Seattle to start, then home for Pittsburgh, before traveling to the East Coast to face the Bucs and the Jets. Denver might only have one win as well—but with Nix improving each week, they could finish stronger. 

Both teams have holes. Denver has the better offensive line and the better head coach, and for me, that’s enough to give them the edge. I’m not suggesting the Denver Broncos will be a wildcard team. What I know for certain is Payton is an excellent head coach and with a quarterback he loves—he finds ways to win.

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