Michael Lombardi: Why you should bet against the Cleveland Browns:

Fox Sports basketball host John Fanta, a lifelong suffering Cleveland Browns fan (who I am confident ripped me, Bill Belichick, and others when we resided in Cleveland), went on an epic rant after the Browns’ Week 1 loss at home to the Cowboys. This time, instead of ripping us, he went full throttle at Deshaun Watson. Fanta’s viral video proclaimed how awful Watson has played, how bad the contract has become, and he urged the Browns to pull the plug. Over two million people watched the video and no one disagreed, except the Browns. Five weeks later, let me take the baton from John and further his cause. 

Watson has now played 17 games for the Cleveland Browns, one full season since he signed his record-breaking $230 million fully guaranteed contract.  And instead of showing any signs of improvement, he has gotten worse, if that’s even possible.  

 

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His yards per attempt currently sits at a record low of 4.8 for a starting quarterback. It’s impossible to win games when your quarterback cannot throw the ball down the field. One of the reasons the Browns gave Watson all that coin was for his big play ability. In Houston, with big-play receiver Will Fuller, Watson averaged 8.3 per attempt. During his four years in Houston, Watson was electric, throwing the ball, running around, making plays, and going to Pro Bowls. His play, along with his potential to play 10 quality seasons, allowed the Browns front office to ignore his off-the-field behavior and give away a boatload of high-valued draft picks.  

You can criticize the Browns for ignoring Watson’s deplorable actions, but you can’t for wanting a young, talented quarterback on their roster. Where the Browns deserve massive criticism is guaranteeing his entire salary, taking away his motivation. Watson is now rich beyond his wildest dreams, so rich he seems like he doesn’t care about his play. He has tenure. Nothing can deplete his bank account. He plays the game with a high degree of indifference. And don’t forget, according to Elie Wiesel, the opposite of love isn’t hate; it’s indifference. 

Watching Watson play now, I feel indifference. I see a player who doesn’t show emotion unless he gets a first down. He doesn’t appear to love the game any longer.  I don’t see passion; I don’t feel he shares a connection with his teammates. I see a guy with a towel over his head, looking like he is searching the Bank of America application to make sure he is still filthy rich.  The money appears to have ruined him.  And the money has also ruined the Browns. 

There is no doubt the implication of the cap hurts the Browns today and in the future. What hampers the Browns more than the cap issues is their reluctance to evaluate Watson without the color of money and embarrassment distorting their view. They are in denial. 

Head coach Kevin Stefanski is the spokesman for the denial, telling everyone we have to play and coach better, which is true. Yet, defending Watson’s horrendous play, knowing he has only converted 12 third downs all season, can cost Stefanski his credibility in the locker room. How can Stefanski tolerate what the front office or the Haslam family has done to his credibility?  How can he believe his own words when we both watch the same tape and know Watson isn’t an NFL starter or even an adequate backup right now?  Stefanski knows.  He is too smart and too detailed not to understand how a better quarterback would make his playcalling shine. It did last year when Joe Flacco climbed off his couch in Haddonfield, New Jersey and made the Browns a playoff team after Watson was injured.   

The Browns rewarded Flacco for his stellar play and return to respectability by not even offering him a contract. There was no communication or thank you. Or a polite, we would love to have you back, but we only have the minimum to offer. Why? Because they know the team knows Flacco is better than Watson, and they didn’t want to let anyone get in the way of their coverup. And this is a massive coverup. As we have learned in history, the crime is never as bad as the coverup. 

Not dealing with the issues and ignoring the problem forces the Browns to enter the sunk cost fallacy mode. The sunk cost fallacy is our tendency to follow through with something that we’ve already invested heavily in, even when giving up clearly is a better idea.  And giving up on Watson is the right thing to do, not to save this season, but rather to save their credibility as a franchise. 

As the owners of the Cleveland Browns, the Haslam family is fully invested in winning. They’re willing to spend money. In fact, they have one of the highest cash outlays of any team over the last few years. The problem with their style of ownership is they want to win their way. They are vested in the analytics, which is rather hilarious as the numbers support benching Watson weeks ago. The analytics would have told them to re-sign Flacco, who improved their offense. If you support analytics, promote your analytics department, and have a President of the team, Paul DePodesta, who only worked in baseball before and lives and breathes analytics, then how do you justify the support for Watson?  It’s clear they only want to use the numbers when they support their position. And that position falls in line with a sunk cost fallacy. 

The Cleveland Browns are going to decay rapidly. We have already seen it happen before our eyes, as their defense, once the best in the NFL, struggles.  Last year, they struggled on the road. This year, they struggled, period. In all fairness to their defense, with an offense that cannot score or convert third downs, they aren’t getting any help. Yes, Stefanski is right. There isn’t one thing wrong with the Browns, as they have a host of problems.  They go to Philadelphia this week as an 8.5-point dog.  Even the book is suggesting they bench Watson with that number. Yet, they will continue to ignore. And the longer this coverup continues, we need to keep betting against the Browns.  Just ask John Fanta. 

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