Best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews.
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(odds as of December 15, 11:30 p.m. PT)
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2; 50)
The Cowboys had feasted upon lower competition all season but finally defeated one of the league’s elite teams in a 33-13 victory over the Eagles on Sunday night. Dak Prescott threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns, and apparently, his teammates knew that he became the +150 favorite for MVP at DraftKings as Dak was serenaded with "MVP, MVP" chants in the locker room. Now the Cowboys take to the road for the next two games beginning with a trip to Buffalo to face a Bills team that is playing with desperation, trying to get back into the playoff picture.
Last week, the Bills never trailed in Kansas City but had to hang on at the end for a 20-17 victory. Despite being just 7-6, Buffalo still ranks No. 6 in overall DVOA, and I still personally rate them in the Top 5. Dallas also power rates as a Top 5 team, but they are just 3-3 away from Jerry World, and their victories came against the 5-8 Giants and two teams that have already fired their head coaches—the 1-12 Panthers and the 5-9 Chargers.
Over the last 20 seasons, underdogs with a 75 percent or more winning percentage in December and January are just 29-49-2 ATS. This trend makes sense because the market has, more often than not, been corrected the later we get into the season.
Buffalo looks like a team that has rediscovered who it was supposed to be. The offense has been better since Ken Dorsey was fired as OC and Joe Brady took over. Josh Allen is showing more of a willingness to make plays again with his legs and now has his full arsenal of weapons on offense back with the return of Dawson Knox last week. Allen is also 21-9-2 ATS as an underdog or as a favorite of -3 or less.
Bet: Bills -125 ML
San Francisco 49ers (-12.5; 48) at Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco has won five straight games since its bye week, all by double digits. The 49ers look like the clear No. 1 team in the league right now. They are the first team to clinch a playoff spot and are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They have taken apart the Cowboys and two division leaders in the Jaguars and Eagles. Now they take to the road to face Arizona, who they easily defeated 35-16 in Week 4, before hosting another current division leader with Baltimore coming to Levi’s Stadium on Christmas night.
Meanwhile, Arizona is 3-10 and off a bye week. On the surface, this would look like a spot for a bad team to mail it in and just play out the season, but the Cardinals will not do that. For one, this is the spot where pride should kick in for Arizona to bring its best effort off rest and against the best team in the NFL. Also, Arizona is 2-2 with Kyler Murray back as a starter and has been more competitive despite talent deficiencies at several positions.
The 49ers are also banged up on defense with DL Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave OUT for this one, with LB Oren Burks. LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Charvarius Ward also questionable to play Sunday. It is not just the D-Line that’s hurting, Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford, both starting guards, also may not be able to go.
This could be a "just get through it" game for the 49ers. Meanwhile, you should get maximum effort from the underdog.
Bet: Cardinals +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
BEST OF THE REST
Bears +3 at Browns
Commanders +6.5 at Rams
Jaguars +3.5 (-120) vs. Ravens
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Jets/Dolphins UN 37
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Steelers +7.5/Panthers +9
