NFL Division Preview: NFC East

By
Dave Tuley
-
779
 

NFL Division Preview: NFC East

For a couple of years, the NFC East was derisively called the NFC Least. The division put that label totally in the past with the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), Dallas Cowboys (12-5) and New York Giants all making the playoffs while the Washington Football Team finally changed their name to the Commanders and finished .500 at 8-8-1, so none of the teams had a losing record.

 

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The Eagles led wire-to-wire as they won their first eight games of the season before losing 32-21 in Week 8 at home vs. the Commanders, again showing the overall strength of the division. The Cowboys stuck around most of the season and stayed alive with a 40-34 win in Week 16 on Christmas Eve, but the Eagles finally clinched the division crown and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, first-round bye and home-field advantage with a 22-16 win vs. the Giants in Week 18.

The Eagles and Cowboys are expected to be in a two-horse race in the NFC East as both teams look loaded. DraftKings has the Eagles as the odds-on, -120 favorite, while the Cowboys are offered at +190. There’s quite a gap between the Giants at +800 and the Commanders at +1100, as the conventional wisdom is that both teams overachieved last season, while the Eagles and Cowboys are considered legitimate contenders.
 

Philadelphia Eagles

The defending NFC champions are the second choice at +650 in the Super Bowl futures at DraftKings behind the Chiefs at +600. They’re also the NFC favorite at +250. After going 13-4 last season to secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage, their Over/Under season win total is set at 11.5.

Offense

The Eagles averaged 29.1 points per game last season (second only to the Chiefs), led by Jalen Hurts, who moved into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks and into the MVP race with his dual-threat stats of 3,701 passing yards for 22 TDs and just 6 INTs, plus another 760 rushing yards and 13 more TDs. Hurts ranked fourth in QBR at 66.4.

Philadelphia lost Miles Sanders’ team-leading 1,269 rushing yards and 11 TDs (though Hurts led the team in the latter category) as he left for Carolina, but they should still be in great shape with a deep backfield (maybe the deepest in the league) that adds D’Andre Swift from Detroit, Rashaad Penny from Seattle in addition to holdovers Kenneth Gainwell, Byron Scott and maybe even Trey Sermon.

Hurts again has a solid receiving corps with WRs A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Olamide Zaccheaus (from Atlanta) battling Quez Watkins for the No. 3 slot, plus TE Dallas Goedert.

Defense

The Eagles had one of the most-respected defenses in the scoring-happy NFL last season, allowing 19.8 points per game (ranking No. 7). It didn’t come through in the 38-35 Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes does that to a lot of defenses. Philadelphia might be even stronger this season with the addition of two first-round draft picks from Georgia’s defense: DT Jalen Carter (who some regard as the steal of the draft at No. 9) and edge rusher Nolan Smith.

Javon Hargrave is gone, but Carter should fit right in with Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat and the rest of the defensive line. Hassan Reddick led the Eagles with 16 sacks last season and should benefit from the addition of Smith. The secondary should again be strong (and it makes it easier with such a strong front seven) with CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry, though the team’s weakest link could be their safeties Terrell Edmunds and Reed Blankenship.

Outlook

On paper, the Eagles look every bit like one of the best teams in the NFL, so their short future-book odds seem justified as well as the Over/Under Season Wins of 11.5 after going 14-3 last year. However, there’s such a thing as the “Super Bowl loser hangover” (though we saw it more last year from the Super Bowl-winning Rams than the losing Bengals), and the Eagles will certainly get everyone’s best effort on every given Sunday. They’ll be sizable favorites in their first couple of games, including -6 vs. the Vikings in Week 1, but there are landmines along the way. The Eagles have a brutal stretch starting with a Week 8 home game vs. their biggest NFC East rival, the Cowboys, and then after their bye, they visit the Chiefs, host the Bills and 49ers and then visit the Cowboys.

Recommendation: Under 11.5 wins.

 

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys’ 2022-23 season was incredibly impressive on many levels, but in the end, they were overshadowed by the Eagles despite going 12-5 and making the playoffs for the second straight season for the first time since 2006-2007. DraftKings has the Cowboys at +1400 in its Super Bowl futures, more than double the price of the Eagles at +650. However, they’re still only +600 to win the NFC behind only the Eagles (+250) and NFC West favorite 49ers (+425) and ahead of the NFC’s other divisional faves in the Lions (+1000) and Saints (+1300).

Offense

The Cowboys had one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, averaging 25.9 points per game (ranked No. 4) despite Dak Prescott starting only 12 games. After Dallas lost Game 1 to the defending champion Buccaneers, they upset the Bengals as 7.5-point underdogs behind backup Cooper Rush as Prescott was recovering from a thumb injury. The defense was stepping up, but Rush was more than a game manager as he kept leading to Cowboys to wins before suffering his first career loss as a starter in Week 6 at the Eagles. Prescott resumed the starting role and threw for 2,860 yards and 25 TDs.

Tony Pollard led the Cowboys with 1,007 rushing yards last season, with Ezekiel Elliott adding 837. It was clearly a changing of the guard as Pollard averaged a robust 5.2 yards per carry while the aging Elliott averaged just 3.8. The Cowboys released Elliott on March 15, so Pollard takes over the bell-cow(boy) role. Dallas also added former Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones, so the two-headed attack should continue behind the Cowboys’ strong offensive line.

CeeDee Lamb led the Cowboys with 107 catches for 1,359 yards. They expected more from Michael Gallup as he had just 39 receptions in 14 games for just 424 yards and 4 TDs, though he did grab 5 for 46 yards and a TD in the playoff win over the Buccaneers. Prescott gets another weapon in slot receiver Brandin Cooks, who comes over from Houston, though Prescott loses his safety valve TE Dalton Schultz, who signed with the Texans. Second-year TE Jake Ferguson is expected to step in after backing up Schultz last year with 19 catches and 2 TDs.

Defense

While the Dallas offense put up impressive numbers, it was the defense that carried the team during Prescott’s absence. While they ranked No. 13 at 333.2 yards allowed per game and No. 6 at 19.7 points per game, where coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense really excels is in taking the ball away from their opponents. After leading the NFL with 34 takeaways in 2021, the Cowboys forced 33 last season to become the first team to lead the league in turnovers in back-to-back seasons since Pittsburgh’s “Steel Curtain” in 1972-1974.

Micah Parsons led the Cowboys with 14 sacks last season and was second to San Francisco’s Joey Bosa for Defensive Player of the Year. He’s the early betting favorite this year. The Cowboys were No. 1 in pressure rate in addition to Parsons and ranked third in sacks behind only the Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and Chiefs, with a lot of depth from Demarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr., plus linebacker Leighton Vander Esch.

The Cowboys already had ballhawk CB Trevon Diggs and now add five-time Pro Bowler Stephon Gilmore (who was also the 2019 Player of the Year) in a trade from the Colts for just a fifth-round pick.  

Outlook

The Cowboys are expected to challenge the Eagles for the division title in the NFC East, which hasn’t had a repeat champion in 18 years. The Cowboys look like a value play at +190 to win the division. That also means we expect them to go Over their Season Win Total of 9.5. That’s juiced at -165 at DraftKings, as they obviously expect the Cowboys to get to double digits. If you expect the Cowboys to need to get to 11 wins anyway to contend for the NFC East crown, you might as well go Over 10 at around even money.

Recommendation: Over 10 wins.

 

New York Giants

After the Giants went 6-10 in 2020 and 4-13 in 2021 in coach Joe Judge’s two seasons, he was fired and general manager Dave Gettleman retired. They were replaced by former Buffalo front office assistant Joe Schoen as GM and former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as head coach. The Giants beat the Titans and Panthers for their first 2-0 start since 2016 and were right  behind the Eagles in NFC East at 6-1 after Week 7. The Giants were mostly doing it mirrors as all were one-score games, and the offense and defense were ranking in the bottom half of the NFL. They cooled off, never winning back-to-back games the rest of the season, but finished 9-7-1 to make the playoffs, and Daboll was named Coach of the Year. DraftKings has the G-men at 25-1 to win the NFC and 65-1 to win the Super Bowl, along with an Over/Under Season Win Total of 7.5.

Offense

The Giants averaged 21.2 points per game (No. 18 in the league) and 333.4 yards (No. 19). As Saquon Barkley goes, so goes the Giants’ offense. Barkley carried the team as he played 16 games for the first time since his 2018 rookie season and rushed for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding another 338 receiving yards. He scored 2 TDs in the Giants’ 34-31 upset of the Vikings in the wild-card round but was shut down by the Eagles in the 38-7 divisional playoff blowout.

Reduced to mostly a game-manager role, QB Daniel Jones improved in his fourth season, completing a career-high 67.2% of his passes for 3,205 yards and 15 TDs with just 5 INTs. He also added 708 rushing yards and 7 more TDs. To Jones’ credit, he did all that with a below-average receiving corps, led by Darius Slayton’s 46 catches for 724 yards. The top returning receiver (not counting Barkley) is Isaiah Hodgins, who had 33 receptions for 351 yards and is on top of the depth chart heading to training camp. The Giants hope Sterling Shepard, Wan’Dale Robinson and Collin Johnson return from injuries to help pick up the slack, as well as newcomers Paris Campbell and Jamison Crowder. But the biggest upgrade in the passing game should come from former Raiders TE Darren Waller, who provides a solid 1-2 punch at the position with Daniel Bellinger.  

Defense

The New York defense was worse than the offense as it allowed 22.8 points per game (No. 22 in the league) and 359.8 yards (No. 25), and it was amazing how the team kept winning. The problem is they didn’t do much in the off-season to improve on this side of the ball.

Dexter Lawrence led the Giants with 7.5 sacks and was the defense’s only All-Pro selection (left tackle Andrew Thomas was the only one on offense). Rookie linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux was the only other Giant with as many as four sacks. Safety Julian Love led the team with 124 tackles, which isn’t always a good sign if too many of those are far downfield, and he left as a free agent to Seattle to leave another hole in the New York defense. The best defensive pickup is probably middle linebacker Bobby Okereke (151 total tackles with the Colts last season), plus they also added Rams defensive end A’Shawn Robinson, though he needs to recover from a torn meniscus last November that caused him to miss the last seven games.

Outlook

Despite making the playoffs, the Giants still look like a level or two below the Eagles and Cowboys in the division, and they haven’t seemed to do enough in the offseason to close the gap. DraftKings has the Giants’ Over/Under Season set at 7.5, with the Under shaded to -120 as of mid-June. Considering how lucky the Giants were in one-score games last season, it’s logical to expect them to regress after going from 4 wins in 2021 to 9 in 2022.

Recommendation: Under 7.5 wins. 

 

Washington Commanders

While the Giants were an overachieving surprise team in 2022, the same could be said of the Commanders in their first season after shedding the lame “Football Team” name. Washington finished 8-8-1 with the tie coming vs. those playoff-bound Giants while also giving the Eagles their first loss of the season in Week 9. They only missed the playoffs due to a three-game losing streak after their Week 14 bye. They’re still regarded as the worst team in the NFC East as DraftKings has them 11-1 to win the division as well as 40-1 to win the NFC and 65-1 to win the Super Bowl with an Over/Under Season Win Total of 6.5.

Offense

Carson Wentz started the season as Washington’s starting QB and led the Week 1 win over the Jaguars. They lost the next 4 games, and then he started in the Week 6 Thursday night win over the Bears, but he went on injured reserve with a fractured ring finger. The Commanders went on a 6-1 run, but that was behind Taylor Heinicke, who kept the starting job after Wentz was healthy. Then, Heinicke was benched in Week 16, with Wentz finishing the loss in San Francisco and then starting Week 17 vs. the Browns—a 24-10 loss that eliminated them from the playoff hunt. Rookie Sam Howell started the finale and beat the Cowboys 26-6 and looks like he’ll be given the reins to start this season. He gets to work with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy from Kansas City.

Despite Heinicke’s winning run, the Commanders still only averaged 18.9 points per game (ranked No. 24 in the league) and 330.3 yards (No. 20). They also had a rotating lineup of running backs with Brian Johnson Jr. (team-leading 797 rushing yards in just 12 games) and Antonio Gibson (546 yards). Terry McLaurin was the top offensive threat with 77 catches for 1,191 yards but just 5 TDs. WRs Josh Dotson and Curtis Samuel also contributed, with Samuel also coming out of the backfield. They’re all back this season, and maybe the continuity will help Howell.

Defense

The defense really carried the Commanders, as it kept it in most games despite the pedestrian offense. They allowed just 20.2 points per game (ranking No. 8 in the league) and 304.6 yards (No. 3). It was a team effort as no defensive starter was voted to the AP All-Pro team—though special teamer Jeremy Reaves did make the first team—and Chase Young returns from his torn ACL suffered in Week 10 of the 2021 season.

In Young’s absence, defensive tackle Daron Payne led the Commanders with 11.5 sacks, with another DT Jonathan Allen adding 6.5. Leading tackler Jamin Davis (104 total tackles, 36 solo) returns. LB Cole Holcomb left for Pittsburgh via free agency, but Washington replaced him with Cody Barton from Seattle.   

Outlook

DraftKings has the Commanders’ Over/Under Season Win Total at 6.5 with a little added juice on the Over at -120. Like the Giants, the Commanders overachieved last season and could be in for a regression, but if the return of Young improves an already steady defense, this team could continue to surprise. It could all come down to how Howell performs. He played great in the season-finale win vs. the Cowboys, though they didn’t have anything to play for. Still, the fact this team upset the Eagles at full strength and tied the Giants shows they could contend for the division title or a wild-card spot.

Recommendation: Over 6.5 wins.

 

 

 

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