NFL Division Preview: NFC South

By
Wes Reynolds
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799
 

NFL Division Preview: NFC South

The theme of the NFC South is quarterback attrition. All four teams in the division will have a different starting quarterback in 2023. Tom Brady said goodbye to Tampa Bay for the second time, but this retirement looks permanent. Baker Mayfield, the Week 1 starter in Carolina last year, will get the first crack at the job in Tampa, his fourth team in six seasons. Speaking of Carolina, who had three different starters last year, they drafted Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick this past spring. In New Orleans, Derek Carr was given up on by Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas, so he comes to the Big Easy to take over as starter for the Saints, the favorites in the division. Atlanta traded up in the 2022 NFL Draft to take Desmond Ridder, who only started the last four games of the season (2-2) but will be the opening Week 1 starter for Arthur Smith, who is opening a season with a different quarterback for the first time in three seasons. This third season makes Smith the most experienced head coach in the division as Todd Bowles and Dennis Allen are only in their second seasons in Tampa Bay and New Orleans respectively. That makes Frank Reich, who was fired midseason last year in Indianapolis, the new kid on the block in Carolina. This is arguably the most wide-open division in the 2023 NFL season. 

 

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Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons look to finally be on the other side of massive contracts given to Matt Ryan and Julio Jones several years ago, and they have built up a solid unit here predominantly through the draft in the last three seasons. Atlanta kicked the tires in recent years on free agent quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson or quarterbacks that were available via trade like Deshaun Watson, but they have elected to try and build it around second-year man Desmond Ridder. Furthermore, they spent $90 million in guaranteed money to upgrade their defense. 

 

Offense

Atlanta is going to run the ball and run it frequently. The Falcons ranked third last season in rushing offense (2,718 yards). Smith ran the ball regularly in Tennessee with Derrick Henry and is doing the same with one of the better stables of backs in the league. Tyler Allgeier ran for over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Cordarrelle Patterson ran for 695 and eight touchdowns, and they added Bijan Robinson (Texas) with the eighth overall pick.

That’s good news for quarterback Desmond Ridder, who will make just his fifth start in the season opener. Ridder’s spark at the end of the season should be good news for the pass catchers – Kyle Pitts and Drake London – that Atlanta drafted in the first round in 2021 and 2022. Smith also traded for Jonnu Smith, who was a staple in his offense during his time as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator and will allow them to line up Pitts on the outside.

The offensive line also returns four starters and will be a force running the ball especially on the right side with former first-round picks guard Chris Lindstrom and tackle Kaleb McGary, who both ranked Top 5 at their positions per PFF. Jake Matthews is also solid at left tackle.

Defense

While the offense was the best in the division last year, the defense was 30th in DVOA. The Falcons needed to get better up front and give Grady Jarrett some support, and they appeared to have done that with the additions of Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, and Bud Dupree.

The Falcons allowed 231.9 passing ypg (25th in NFL), 7.29 yards per pass (29th), and 45.9% on third downs (31st). Enter Jessie Bates III from Cincinnati, who signed a massive deal and can line up anywhere. He allows Richie Grant, who is very good against the run, to line up closer to the line of scrimmage. A.J. Terrell is one of the better cover corners in the league. Atlanta also traded for former first-round corner Jeff Okudah, who started 15 games last year after only starting seven in his first two injury-plagued seasons. This secondary at least looks better on paper.

Outlook

The Falcons have not made the playoffs in five seasons. Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot have worked diligently to get this team out of salary cap hell. The offense was the best in the division last year and should be better this year. They were also fifth in special teams DVOA, and the defense should be better. Atlanta ended up losing the second- and third-place divisional tiebreakers last season, which affords them the benefit of playing a last-place schedule this season. That means they’ll be the only team in the division to face Arizona and the only team in the division to face Washington. Those matchups are worth a not insignificant amount of extra win probability compared to the slates to be faced by the Bucs (Philadelphia-San Francisco), Panthers (Dallas-Seattle) and Saints (Giants-Rams). There is also some value on the division price at around +250 to +275.

Recommendation: Over 8.5 wins.
 

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have missed the playoffs five seasons in a row. Owner David Tepper had seen Matt Rhule go 11-27 over two-plus seasons and fired him after five games last season. Frank Reich was sacked in Indianapolis just one month later but got another shot where he once was a player in Carolina. Bryce Young is the future in Carolina, but there are still questions about his size and durability. Eventually, those will have to be answered. 

Offense

Carolina has gotten way too used to having new quarterbacks and new head coaches. This year, they have both with No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and Frank Reich. Andy Dalton was signed to backup and mentor Young, so he may start early in the season. Miles Sanders, off a Pro Bowl season, was also signed from Philadelphia to replace Christian McCaffrey at running back. Sanders has more of an opportunity to be a three-down back in this offense though with Chuba Hubbard and Rasheem Blackshear backing him up.

As for the receiving corps, this unit has been completely remade with Adam Thielen coming from Minnesota to play the slot. D.J. Chark will be the primary speed guy with Terrace Marshall Jr, tight end Hayden Hurst, and second-rounder Jonathan Mingo expected to contribute immediately.

Most rookie quarterbacks do not get the luxury of having an offensive line that returns all five starters, but Young has that here, especially 2022 first-rounder Ikem Ekwonu having finally solidified the left tackle spot.

Defense

Carolina also switches from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who comes in after serving in the same position at Denver last year. The Panthers need to discover another pass rusher opposite Brian Burns who had a career-high 12.5 sacks last year. This will be a make-or-break season for 2020 first-rounder Derrick Brown to show more production.

Inside backer Shaq Thompson restructured his deal and is a leader on defense. Perhaps the 3-4 will bolster some of his lost production as he and rover Jeremy Chinn can line up closer to the line of scrimmage to help stuff the run game.

If Jaycee Horn can stay healthy (having missed half of his games in his first two seasons), this is a good secondary. C.J. Henderson and Donte Jackson also must stay healthy because there are good ball skills with this group. Veterans Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods also come in as free agents.

Outlook 

The Panthers have been searching for a quarterback ever since mid-2018 when T.J. Watt drilled Cam Newton’s throwing shoulder. Matt Rhule went 11-27 mainly because he could never find the right quarterback. Neither Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, nor Baker Mayfield worked. Now they will eventually turn to rookie Bryce Young and let Frank Reich, Carolina’s first starting quarterback in the franchise’s first season back in 1995, work with and develop him. This is the best long-term approach because free agency has not worked. The Panthers will be underdogs in their first six games, but the organization looks to be heading in a better direction. Nevertheless, this is still a rookie quarterback with a new coaching staff and a new defensive scheme. There is high potential for a bad start to the season and a respectable finish.

Recommendation: Lean Under 7.5 wins.
 

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are not used to missing the playoffs but they have done just that in the last two seasons. The Saints have declined from winning 13 games in 2019, to 12 in 2020, then nine in 2021, and finally seven last season mainly due to not being able to find a quarterback to fill Drew Brees’ shoes. They believe they have finally found one in Derek Carr, who comes in on a four-year, $150 million deal. Carr reunites with head coach Dennis Allen, who coached the quarterback in his 2014 rookie season. 

Offense

Perhaps Carr has a great season here and is motivated knowing that a team is excited to have him as their quarterback. However, Pete Carmichael Jr. represents Carr’s fifth offensive coordinator as a pro. Carr’s four previous seasons in Year One of a new offensive coordinator currently stand as his four worst seasons in passer rating, completion rate, yards per attempt and passing yards per game. Carr went 22-40 (35.4%) as a starter in those four seasons compared to 41-39 (51.3%) in all other seasons.

The Saints have beefed up their running game to help Alvin Kamara, who still faces a likely suspension at some point for the incident in Las Vegas at the 2022 Pro Bowl, with Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns last season, and drafting Kendre Miller (TCU) in the third round. Michael Thomas agreed to return at a reduced salary but are his best days behind him having dealt with injuries and disciplinary issues the last three seasons? If so, then Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed will need to improve even more on their solid rookie seasons.

Up front, the top eight OL from last year return, but left tackle Trevor Penning had multiple foot injuries in his rookie season last year, and this quality veteran group of Erik McCoy, Andrus Peat, Ryan Ramczyk, and Cesar Ruiz could be showing some signs of age plus wear and tear.

Defense

The Saints were fifth in total defense for 2022, but both defensive coordinators – Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard – left in the offseason. Dennis Allen will still call the plays, but he brings in Joe Woods from Cleveland to be the new DC. The run defense was 24th in 2022, and the Saints are rebuilding their interior with 2023 first-rounder Bryan Breese (Clemson).

Second-rounder Isaiah Foskey (Notre Dame) will replace the inconsistent Marcus Davenport on the opposite side of Cameron Jordan.

New Orleans should still be strong against the pass (2nd – 184.4 ypg; 48 sacks – 5th). Marshon Lattimore is a lockdown corner but missed ten games with an abdominal injury last year. This is a talented group with Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, Alontae Taylor, Marcus Maye, and Tyrann Mathieu, but they need to force more turnovers having only generated 14 takeaways.

Outlook

Carr is by far the most proven quarterback in the NFC South, but Dennis Allen has not proven to be a winner as a head coach having a 15-38 record. The 7-10 record in 2022 was Allen’s best career record. Carr makes New Orleans the rightful favorite in the division, but 9.5 wins seems to be a bigger ask with a coach that has never had a winning season and a quarterback yet again working with a new offensive coordinator.

Recommendation: Under 9.5 wins.
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs adopted an all-in approach during Tom Brady’s three seasons in Tampa adding veterans and pushing money forward in an attempt to maximize a short window. It clearly worked with a Super Bowl and two division titles. However, this is where the pain could begin from a salary cap and retooling standpoint. Eventually, they could figure it out, but will head coach Todd Bowles be allowed to see it? 

Offense

Due to the salary cap constraints that helped them get a Lombardi Trophy three years ago, Tampa Bay had to go the economical route in replacing Brady. Baker Mayfield signed a one-year deal to compete with 2021 second-rounder Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback gig. The offensive staff was overhauled by Bowles. Byron Leftwich was fired as offensive coordinator and Dave Canales comes in from Seattle after serving 13 seasons under Pete Carroll, most recently as QB coach/passing game coordinator.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still one of the league’s best receiving duos and tight end Cade Otton could have a breakout campaign. Rachaad White split carries with Leonard Fournette last season but is now the primary feature back for a unit that was the worst in the NFL with 3.4 ypc.

Up front, Tristan Wirfs shifts from right to left tackle to replace Donovan Smith. Ryan Jensen returns as the anchor at center. 2022 second-rounder Luke Goedeke likely takes over at right tackle. However, the two other spots on the OL are up for grabs.

Defense

Although the Bucs have many salary cap issues, they were able to re-sign linebacker Lavonte David and corner Jamel Dean. Shaq Barrett also returns after missing half of last season with a torn Achilles. The defense should still be solid although it is aging.

Vita Vea (6.5 sacks last year) will have to shoulder more of the load up front for a run defense that has slipped from the elite units over the past few years. Calijah Kancey (Pitt) was drafted in the first round this spring to help out Vea. Greg Gaines was signed from the Rams and will be moved from tackle to end in the 3-4 scheme. Logan Hall disappointed last year as a rookie but did bulk up in the offseason.

Devin White is David’s running mate at inside backer. More is expected out of 2021 first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka from a pass rush standpoint.

Carlton Davis, along with Dean, are both high-priced corners, so more takeaways are expected. Antoine Winfield Jr returns to his safety role along with Ryan Neal, who was signed from Seattle.

Outlook

After three consecutive playoff appearances, back-to-back NFC South titles, and a Lombardi Trophy, the Buccaneers are heading into the great unknown as Brady’s second retirement seems final. There are remnants of the Super Bowl-winning squad from three years ago, but this team is at a crossroads between retooling and rebuilding. Bowles is clearly on the hot seat, although he was not able to select his own staff having taken over for Bruce Arians with Arians’ coaching staff. While Brady’s production declined, the team will miss his leadership and will have to rely on either a third-year backup or Baker Mayfield, who is on his fourth team in six years. Tampa also draws a first-place schedule having to face other division winners like Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Francisco, which will be difficult for a team in transition. A bad start could lead to a lot of these veterans thinking about their next move.

Recommendation: Lean Under 6.5 wins.

 

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