NFL First TD Scorer
A trio of Turkey Day games means getting this week’s First Touchdown Scorer article out early. I’ll have to do an update for the Sunday/Monday games on Friday and plan out some of the candidates to find paydirt in those games.
But, I can put out the fully updated Tracker and some of the other notes that you’ve come to expect from this article each week.
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Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from last week:
QB: 31 (3)
RB: 137 (8)
WR: 124 (7)
TE: 37 (6)
D/ST: 14 (0)
No TD: 25 (2)
Our second straight week without a D/ST first TD scorer. It was the week of the tight end, though, as I believe six is the highest for a week so far this season.
Here are all the guys with a minimum three first team TDs and the counts of how many were the first TD in the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 8 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6 | 6 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 6 | 5 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 5 | 3 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 5 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 5 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 4 | 4 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 4 | 3 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 4 | 1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 3 | 3 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 3 | 0 |
For some other miscellaneous trends and nuggets:
- The Ravens scored on their first possession in Weeks 1, 3, 4, and 5. They haven’t done it since.
- Nine of Detroit’s 11 first team TDs have come from a RB.
- Kyren Williams (LAR) scored his eighth first team TD, his first since Week 8.
- A.J. Brown’s TD for the Eagles snapped five straight weeks with either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts scoring first.
- The Steelers had their first RB TD in this category last week. Justin Fields had three first team rushing TD in Weeks 3, 4, and 6.
- Jonnu Smith (MIA) has scored the first team TD in 3/6 games since the bye.
- With Baltimore failing to score first against the Chargers, no team is over 80% in this department.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 9/12 (75%) |
| Chargers | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Lions | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Packers | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Vikings | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Colts | 8/12 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Bucs | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Cardinals | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Eagles | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Patriots | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Texans | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Bills | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Falcons | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Panthers | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Seahawks | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Titans | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| 49ers | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Dolphins | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Raiders | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Broncos | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Commanders | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Bears | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Browns | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Chiefs | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Saints | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Steelers | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Cowboys | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Jaguars | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Jets | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Rams | 2/11 (18.2%) |
| Giants | 1/11 (9.1%) |
No teams are on a bye this week.
Check out the Tracker for some more goodies.
Let’s get to the Week 13 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
I’m posting Thanksgiving games for now. Updates to come on Friday for the other games.
NFL Week 13 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Bears (36.4%) at Lions (72.7%) – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Giants (9.1%) at Cowboys (27.3%)
Dolphins (45.5%) at Packers (72.7%)
Raiders (45.5%) at Chiefs (36.4%) – Friday, 3 p.m. ET
Chargers (72.7%) at Falcons (54.5%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Steelers (36.4%) at Bengals (63.6%)
Cardinals (63.6%) at Vikings (72.7%)
Colts (66.7%) at Patriots (58.3%)
Seahawks (54.5%) at Jets (27.3%)
Titans (54.5%) at Commanders (41.7%)
Texans (58.3%) at Jaguars (27.3%)
Rams (18.2%) at Saints (36.4%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (63.6%) at Panthers (54.5%)
Eagles (63.6%) at Ravens (75%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
49ers (45.5%) at Bills (54.5%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Browns (36.4%) at Broncos (41.7%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 13 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs +400, David Montgomery +400
We’ll adopt the KISS method here for the Lions, Keep It Simple, Stupid. Gibbs and Montgomery have combined for nine first team TDs. Montgomery has six of them. Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the others, with LaPorta’s in one of the three games where the Lions didn’t score the first TD.
The Lions have scored the first TD in all but one of their home games, Week 2 against the Buccaneers. Detroit got inside the 5-yard-line and settled for a field goal. And then did it again on the next drive after getting to the 17. That was the theme of that day for the Lions, which remains their only loss.
On a short week, I would expect Ben Johnson to have something well-scripted to start things off.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +380, Jayden Reed +750
With howling winds and cold temps, I have to throw the short shot Jacobs in there, even if the price isn’t as fruitful as you might have expected. Reed has four first team TDs to lead all Packers. Tucker Kraft does have two in the last four games and I barked up that tree with Reed’s last one.
The Packers are a hard team to pin down in this department, but I do think Miami could start very slow with the cold, the short week, and the travel. Also, Green Bay has scored on the first possession in each of the last two games coming out of the bye. Matt LaFleur has always been a good scripter of the offense early in games.
I’ll add a couple more teams on Friday for Sunday’s games.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
