NFL First TD Scorer:
The spread out NFL schedule makes things very interesting in a variety of different ways this week, including the First TD Scorer market. I wouldn’t expect books to have every game lined quickly, but they’ll have to move fast for the Wednesday games on Christmas Day.
I’m doing a bit of an abridged version of the First TD article this week thanks to the holiday, but the Tracker is updated and we’ve got some games to think about. I’ll have picks later in the week, as none of the Wednesday games stand out as good options in my mind.
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Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from last week:
QB: 39 (2)
RB: 178 (13)
WR: 170 (11)
TE: 55 (4)
D/ST: 18 (1)
No TD: 29 (1)
OL: 1 (1) (OL are not lined, so the Cardinals/Patriots Week 15 1st TD was likely voided at your book)
Here are all the guys with a minimum three first team TDs and the counts of how many were the first TD in the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 11 | 4 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 6 | 4 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 6 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 6 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 6 | 3 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 6 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 5 | 5 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 5 | 4 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 5 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 5 | 2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 4 | 4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 3 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 3 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 3 | 0 |
For some other miscellaneous trends and nuggets:
- The Cowboys have scored the first TD in three straight games after not doing so since Week 8
- The Packers have scored the first TD in five of six games since the bye and nine of their last 11
- The Texans failed to score the first TD since Week 8
- The Jaguars have scored the first TD in three straight games.
- The Chiefs have gotten hot in this area. They’ve scored the first TD in five straight games
- After starting 8/11 this season, the Chargers have failed to score the first TD in four straight
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Ravens | 12/15 (80%) |
| Packers | 11/15 (73.3%) |
| Bucs | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Cardinals | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Colts | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Eagles | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Vikings | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 9/15 (60%) |
| Falcons | 9/15 (60%) |
| Texans | 9/15 (60%) |
| Bills | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Chargers | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Chiefs | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Patriots | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Titans | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| 49ers | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Broncos | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Commanders | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Panthers | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Cowboys | 6/15 (40%) |
| Dolphins | 6/15 (40%) |
| Jaguars | 6/15 (40%) |
| Seahawks | 6/15 (40%) |
| Browns | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Jets | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Raiders | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Bears | 4/15 (26.7%) |
| Rams | 4/15 (26.7%) |
| Steelers | 4/15 (26.7%) |
| Giants | 3/15 (20%) |
Let’s get to the Week 17 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 17 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Chiefs (53.3%) at Steelers (26.7%) – Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
Ravens (80%) at Texans (60%) – 4:30 p.m. ET
Seahawks (40%) at Bears (26.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Chargers (53.3%) at Patriots (53.3%) – Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Broncos (46.7%) at Bengals (60%) – 4:30 p.m. ET
Cardinals (66.7%) at Rams (26.7%) – 8 p.m. ET
Jets (33.3%) at Bills (53.3%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Raiders (33.3%) at Saints (33.3%)
Cowboys (40%) at Eagles (66.7%)
Panthers (46.7%) at Bucs (66.7%)
Titans (53.3%) at Jaguars (40%)
Dolphins (40%) at Browns (33.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Packers (73.3%) at Vikings (66.7%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Falcons (60%) at Commanders (46.7%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Lions (66.7%) at 49ers (46.7%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 17 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans +550, Cade Otton +1200
The Buccaneers have to be extremely motivated to start fast against old friend Dave Canales after how last week’s game set them back. The Bucs scored first back in Week 13 when Mike Evans found the end zone. I’ll back him again here, as Evans only has one first team TD since the bye, but leads the team with five. We’ve seen a lot more Jalen McMillan lately and he’s actually been the first TD scorer twice, but I think Evans, even at a shorter price, is the better look. He leads all receivers with 11 red zone targets and has six catches, including five for TD.
But, I also like Otton. He is unrivaled in the TE target department, as he has all 16 targets at that position in the red zone. That includes 10 catches and four touchdowns. Otton wasn’t a huge factor in the first game with four catches for 20 yards, but he did have seven targets out of 33 attempts from Mayfield. I think the price is solid here as well.
Carolina has failed to score first in four of five games since the bye after entering the bye 6/10 in scoring first, including five of the final six games before the off week.
Miami Dolphins: DeVon Achane +360, Jonnu Smith +900
The Dolphins catch a little bit of a break in that they’re getting some warm weather in Cleveland for late December. It is a game that means nothing to Miami since the playoffs are out of reach, but there are a lot of guys on this offense that will be interested in putting up numbers if possible.
The Browns offense looked awful against Cincinnati with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm, including a total of zero passing yards in the first half. So, I do think that the Dolphins have a good chance at scoring first here. Achane and Smith have combined for nine of the 15 first team TDs this season. More notably, Achane and Smith have combined for five of the last six and six of the last eight. Tyreek Hill scored first for the first time this season last week. In fact, nobody outside of Achane and Smith has more than one first team TD.
So, Achane at +360 and Smith +900 are the looks here.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
