NFL First TD Scorer
It may not have felt like it, but Week 3 was a much better week for touchdowns than what we had been seeing. It should come as no surprise. Teams are getting deeper into the playbook and any residual rust from the summer and preseason has been chipped off for the most part. The league-wide rash of injuries is actually the bigger concern at this point in time.
When I talked to you last week, there were only 69 passing touchdowns in the NFL through two weeks, which badly trailed the previous three seasons. We’re up to 118 of them now, which still lags behind recent history, but there were 49 passing TDs last week alone.
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Moreover, the red-zone success rate going into last week was just 46.7% (93/199) and is now 51.7% (154/298). Teams were 61/99 (61.6%) last week using the numbers from Pro-Football-Reference, so that is a big step up. Right now, 20 of the league’s 32 teams are succeeding at least 50% of the time. Teams cashed in at a 55% clip last season. Fourteen teams are better than 55% so far in 2024, but that does include the Browns, who are a perfect 4-for-4 with the fewest red-zone trips.
For another update, here is the team first TD distribution by position:
QB: 9
RB: 35
WR: 40
TE: 4
D/ST: 1
No TD: 7
By the way, Alexander Mattison (LV) and Kyren Williams (LAR) are the only players to have scored the first team TD in all three games.
Continued thanks to our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak for setting up the First TD Tracker.
Here’s how things stand for 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Eagles | 3/3 (100%) |
| Ravens | 3/3 (100%) |
| Vikings | 3/3 (100%) |
| Bengals | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Bills | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Browns | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Bucs | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Cardinals | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Chargers | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Colts | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Falcons | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Patriots | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Saints | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Seahawks | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Titans | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| 49ers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Broncos | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Cowboys | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Giants | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Jaguars | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Jets | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Panthers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Raiders | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Steelers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Texans | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Bears | 0/3 (0%) |
| Chiefs | 0/3 (0%) |
| Commanders | 0/3 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/3 (0%) |
| Rams | 0/3 (0%) |
Only three teams have scored first in all three games, with the Eagles, Ravens, and Vikings atop the list. Five teams have not scored first, including a very surprising one with the Chiefs. Of that group, the Chiefs and Commanders are the only teams to score on their opening drive of the game, but they lost the coin toss and gave up scores.
Interestingly, the Eagles have scored the first TD in all three games, but they have not scored a first-quarter point this season.
Here are last year’s FTD results:
2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4 |
| 49ers | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Chiefs | 12/17 | 70.6 |
| Raiders | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Cowboys | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Vikings | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Jaguars | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Eagles | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Lions | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Dolphins | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Browns | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bears | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Falcons | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Rams | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bills | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Colts | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bengals | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Seahawks | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Texans | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Titans | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Steelers | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Patriots | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Buccaneers | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Commanders | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Panthers | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Giants | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Jets | 4/17 | 23.5 |
For what it’s worth, and because Steph’s TD Tracker covers 2022, here’s how that looked, with the playoffs included:
2022 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Browns | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Eagles | 14/20 | 70.0 |
| Cowboys | 13/19 | 68.4 |
| Ravens | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Vikings | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Chargers | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Lions | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Titans | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Bengals | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| 49ers | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| Chiefs | 12/20 | 60.6 |
| Rams | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Panthers | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bills | 10/19 | 52.6 |
| Patriots | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bears | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Commanders | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Jaguars | 8/19 | 42.1 |
| Falcons | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Raiders | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Seahawks | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Buccaneers | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Giants | 7/19 | 36.8 |
| Jets | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Steelers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Packers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Broncos | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Texans | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Dolphins | 6/18 | 33.3 |
| Colts | 4/17 | 23.5 |
Let’s get to the Week 4 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
I’ll include 2023 for one more week until just looking at 2024.
NFL Week 4 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024 and 2023
Cowboys (33.3%; 64.7%) at Giants (33.3%; 23.5%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Saints (66.7%; 41.2%) at Falcons (66.7%; 52.9%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Rams (0%; 47.1%) at Bears (0%; 52.9%)
Vikings (100%; 58.8%) at Packers (66.7%; 64.7%)
Steelers (33.3%; 41.2%) at Colts (66.7%; 47.1%)
Broncos (0%; 58.8%) at Jets (33.3%; 23.5%)
Eagles (100%; 58.8%) at Buccaneers (66.7%; 29.4%)
Bengals (66.7%; 47.1%) at Panthers (33.3%; 23.5%)
Jaguars (33.3%; 58.8%) at Texans (33.3%; 47.1%)
Commanders (0%; 29.4%) at Cardinals (66.7%; 35.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Patriots (66.7%; 29.4%) at 49ers (33.3%; 76.5%)
Browns (66.7%; 52.9%) at Raiders (33.3%; 64.7%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Chiefs (0%; 70.6%) at Chargers (66.7%; 47.1%)
Bills (66.7%; 47.1%) at Ravens (100%; 82.4%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Titans (66.7%; 41.2%) at Dolphins (0%; 58.8%) – Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Seahawks (66.7%; 47.1%) at Lions (66.7%; 58.8%) – 8:15 p.m. ET
NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Chicago Bears: Roschon Johnson +850, Cole Kmet +1300
The Rams have not scored a first-quarter TD yet this season. So, with the early kick in Chicago and still no Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, the Bears are worth a look. Caleb Williams has improved each week and hopefully he continues that trend in this one.
Kmet leads all tight ends in red-zone targets with four and has one red-zone touchdown to this point. The Rams have allowed the fourth-most yards to TE thus far, so Kmet could be able to find a way to get open.
As far as Johnson goes, D’Andre Swift has been a big bust for the Bears thus far and reports have circulated that Johnson is going to get an “extended look” this week. Johnson had 12 touches on 33 snaps last week and was actually targeted five times in the passing game. Swift only had two red-zone attempts, the same number as Johnson, coming into this week. Khalil Herbert (+1400) could hawk this TD, so I’m thinking about adding him, as he leads the team with four red-zone carries.
For now, it’s Johnson and Kmet.
Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Moss +500, Tee Higgins +1200
Carolina has allowed long touchdown drives in the first quarter of every game this season. The Bengals have had some long drives early in games, especially the last two weeks.
Moss ranks fifth in red-zone rushing attempts, trailing Kyren Williams, Jordan Mason, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara. Iosivas has four targets and three touchdowns in the red zone already.
Tee Higgins had two red-zone targets in his first game back. Ja’Marr Chase has had three in three games. The 6-foot-4 Higgins played 90% of the offensive snaps last week and I have to think he’ll be in better form in this one.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. +475, Michael Wilson +950
The top two pass-catching options for the Cardinals each have a red-zone TD and have combined for four of the team’s seven offensive TDs. James Conner does have two of them and I gave him a ton of thought, but the Commanders have allowed a league-high nine TDs to wide receivers thus far.
The Cardinals are the ONLY team in the NFL to have scored on all three of their opening drives. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is doing some fine work in Year 2. It’s worth noting that he was an assistant for the Browns under Kevin Stefanski and was also with Stefanski during his Vikings days. Over his career, Stefanski has done well with the scripted drive and Petzing appears to be following suit.
The Commanders had a big offensive showing last week, but didn’t score a TD in Week 2 and are 0-3 in the first TD market so far, though they did score on their first possession last week.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
