NFL First Touchdown
Last season, red-zone execution was non-existent for the first three weeks, as teams had trouble transitioning from the preseason to the regular season. That was not the case at all in Week 1 of the 2026 season, as teams were 70-of-105 for a 66.7% success rate inside the 20. By no means would I expect that to keep up, but it was a thoroughly impressive performance offensively given the limited game reps for most teams in the exhibition games.
With 10 new head coaches and a lot of new coordinators, it will take some time to study film and pick up on tendencies, so perhaps that’s why we saw so much success. Only three teams – Seahawks, Browns, and Falcons – failed to score a red-zone TD. The Falcons never made it to the red zone, while the other two teams were 0-for-2.
For our purposes, it was a good start to the season with cashes on Jonathan Taylor (+400) and Parker Washington (+850), so hopefully the process and the research will continue to pay off as the season goes along.
Before we get to Week 2, let’s look back at Week 1. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is from last season.
QB: 5 (36)
RB: 12 (176)
WR: 9 (187)
TE: 5 (82)
D/ST: 1 (26)
No TD: 0 (36)
Huzzahs all around for all 32 teams scoring a TD in Week 1. It was a pretty high number for QBs in Week 1 and maybe a little bit of a low number for WR. We’ll see how those numbers go early in the season and maybe find something meaningful.
The other thing I want to mention here is that teams did really well with their scripted drives. Ten of the 32 teams (31.3%) scored on their first possessions. Last season, the average TD rate on first possessions was 26%, so we tracked ahead last week, but actually not by as much as I thought. Just another thing to keep an eye on.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Bengals | 1/1 (100%) |
| Cardinals | 1/1 (100%) |
| Chiefs | 1/1 (100%) |
| Colts | 1/1 (100%) |
| Eagles | 1/1 (100%) |
| Falcons | 1/1 (100%) |
| Giants | 1/1 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 1/1 (100%) |
| Jets | 1/1 (100%) |
| Lions | 1/1 (100%) |
| Packers | 1/1 (100%) |
| Panthers | 1/1 (100%) |
| Patriots | 1/1 (100%) |
| Raiders | 1/1 (100%) |
| Rams | 1/1 (100%) |
| Texans | 1/1 (100%) |
| 49ers | 0/1 (0%) |
| Bears | 0/1 (0%) |
| Bills | 0/1 (0%) |
| Broncos | 0/1 (0%) |
| Browns | 0/1 (0%) |
| Buccaneers | 0/1 (0%) |
| Chargers | 0/1 (0%) |
| Commanders | 0/1 (0%) |
| Cowboys | 0/1 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/1 (0%) |
| Ravens | 0/1 (0%) |
| Saints | 0/1 (0%) |
| Seahawks | 0/1 (0%) |
| Steelers | 0/1 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/1 (0%) |
| Vikings | 0/1 (0%) |
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Seahawks | 15/20 (75%) |
| Jaguars | 13/18 (72.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Rams | 12/20 (60%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bears | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bills | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Texans | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Steelers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/18 (38.9%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
Some nuggets from Week 1:
- Of the 10 teams with new head coaches, four of them scored the first TD
- The Chargers and Ravens were the only teams to score on their first possession, but not have the game’s first TD
- Of the guys with 5+ first team TDs in 2025, the ones who scored the first team TD in Week 1 were Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Dallas Goedert, and Bijan Robinson
For the first few weeks, I will include the 2025 percentages, as the 2026 sample size just isn’t really big enough to be significant. As we get more data, I’ll drop 2025 from this matchup section.
With that, let’s get to the Week 2 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 2 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026 2025
Lions (100%; 64.7%) at Bills (0%; 52.6%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
—
Packers (100%; 61.1%) at Jets (100%; 17.6%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers (100%; 38.9%) at Falcons (100%; 41.2%)
Eagles (100%; 66.7%) at Titans (0%; 35.3%)
Steelers (0%; 50%) at Patriots (100%; 42.9%)
Browns (0%; 52.9%) at Buccaneers (0%; 58.8%)
Saints (0%; 17.6%) at Ravens (0%; 52.9%)
Bengals (100%; 47.1%) at Texans (100%; 52.6%)
Vikings (0%; 35.3%) at Bears (0%; 52.6%)
—
Jaguars (100%; 72.2%) at Broncos (0%; 57.9%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Raiders (100%; 29.4%) at Chargers (0%; 44.4%)
—
Commanders (0%; 29.4%) at Cowboys (0%; 52.9%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Seahawks (0%; 75%) at Cardinals (100%; 35.3%)
Dolphins (0%; 47.1%) at 49ers (0%; 52.6%)
—
Colts (100%; 88.2%) at Chiefs (100%; 41.2%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Giants (100%; 58.8%) at Rams (100%; 60%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 2 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (+285), Lamar Jackson (+850)
Nothing earth-shattering here by any means, but the Baltimore offense looked like a well-oiled machine in Week 1 for new OC Declan Doyle. While Doyle was on Ben Johnson’s staff last season, Caleb Williams was sixth among QBs in rush attempts in the red zone with 19. Doyle was not the play-caller, but surely he took notice. When Doyle was on the Broncos staff in 2024, Bo Nix was sixth in red-zone carries. Jackson had Baltimore’s first TD on a five-yard scamper last week.
Henry is just a monster in this department, so even the cheap +285 price is attractive. Henry had six red-zone carries and two touchdowns last week. Jackson only had four pass attempts, with two targets for Ja’Kobi Lane, one for Durham Smythe, and one for Mark Andrews.
As good of an offensive mind as Kellen Moore is, the Saints have only scored the first in 3 of his 18 games at the helm and New Orleans had a pretty good defense last season.
Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Allgeier (+950), Kendrick Bourne (+3000)
Bourne was the only Cardinals WR to draw a red-zone target last week, as he was targeted eight times in just 50 snaps and hauled in all eight passes. Trey McBride led the way with 13 targets overall and he had four red-zone targets, but teams certainly pay a lot of attention to him in the red zone. He had 16 catches on 24 targets against the Seahawks last season, but only one TD.
Bourne and Jacoby Brissett had some overlap in 2024 when they were both on the Patriots. But, it was surprising to me to see that Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. weren’t as big of a factor playing more snaps than Bourne. In fact, Harrison only had three targets.
So, I think Bourne at the balloon price is worth it. So is Tyler Allgeier, who played 44 snaps to Jeremiyah Love’s 32. Both guys had three red-zone carries and Love found paydirt with his, scoring the first TD of the game against the Chargers. Allgeier also hauled in his one target, while Love did not. With Allgeier’s price a little higher, I’ll bite.
Also, this is a calculated fade of the Seahawks without Sam Darnold. The Seahawks were a 75% team with Darnold last season and the Vikings were a 61.1% team with him in 2024. Darnold will not play this week, as Drew Lock steps in.
Dallas Cowboys: Javonte Williams (+450), CeeDee Lamb (+800)
The Cowboys make the cut this week with RB1 and WR1. Dak Prescott was 5-for-5 passing in the red zone last week against the Giants, including passing TDs to Williams and Lamb. Dallas just got Harbaugh’d there, as his Ravens were regularly finding the end zone first. The Commanders have not been doing that. They are 15-for-38 over the last two seasons plus a week and were just 5-for-17 last season.
Williams had six first team TDs for Dallas last season. I think the Cowboys figured some things out late in the season, as they scored the first TD in each of their last four games and scored on their first possession in three of those games.
Given how the Commanders have struggled to be ready for games, Dallas seems worthy of some investment here and these are the two most likely candidates.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
